GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Tekken_Guy]

Carter must be pissed; he really wanted to run for this seat.

Looks like he’ll wait for Ossoff’s seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Carter must be pissed; he really wanted to run for this seat.

Looks like he’ll wait for Ossoff’s seat.

He'll be waiting for a long time. It's possible that Ossoff becomes a lifer, and that he could be in the Senate for decades to come.

Also, Carter always saw himself as a backup. He’s been pushing Walker to run for a while.

Jack Kingston must be disappointed though. I bet he’s really been wanting to run for his old house seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Warnock is slight favorite but I also think people here are being bit too optimistic about Rs not turning out for runoff and Ds turning out well.

Yes, if Walker wins it'll be because Democrats are asleep at the wheel, we cannot let that happen.

tbh Dems turnout in GA wasn't good..Warnock had to overperform crazily like close to 9 points vs other generic Dems running statewide in-order to reach runoff. So realistically, even 2-3% dropoff in Dem's turnout in runoff can lead to a Walker victory. That's why I am eager to see some Georgia polls..it should give a decent idea.

Dem turnout may not have been great but it's far more reliable at this point in non-November elections that rural R turnout. Especially when there's no motivation for Walker voters who don't like him to vote specifically for him. They showed up in November to vote for Kemp/against Abrams or for Senate control. What do they have here.

[Tekken_Guy]

Riley Gaines is clearly auditioning for the Toni Lahren niche on conservative media. I think you’ll find most people are against trans women competing in women sports, but I think as we saw in Kansas Governor and other races that it doesn’t trump other issues.

I think she might run for John Rose’s seat when it opens up.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wouldn't be shocked to see Warnock clear a 5 point margin of victory in the runoff.

[Tekken_Guy]

I haven't been super active about this but a few notes:

Anyway you slice it, the current EV numbers are objectively good for Warnock? How good is up to debate, but turnout seems is highest in metro Atlanta, black turnout is way up, and young people are showing solid numbers. Consider that in the 2022 midterm, it seems like GA had an R-leaning electorate, especially with the margin Kemp and other generic Rs were re-elected by.

The question is if Walker can make up that deficit with the remaining days and ofc E-Day. Right now, I'm leaning pretty strongly towards no, but you can't completely count him out given how strange elections can be.

It really seems like in the Atlanta metro, Dems have built up a pretty energized, enthusiastic, and reliable GOTV machine which has been doing wonders since 2020. It's moreso downstate that I'm a bit more worried about; black turnout in southern GA was clearly down from previous cycles in November, leading to some pretty hard right shifts in much of the "black-belt". This was a theme we saw throughout other key southern states like VA and NC.

I also feel like looking at the campaigns, Warnock seems to be running on a pretty "upbeat" and happy message, not about being a moderate hero, but about general unity and optimism for the future. Warnocks campaign has done a really effective job at painting him as positive and non-ideological figure.

Walker seems to be running a bit more of the negative campaign, likely because right now he's the one facing all these scandals. His campaign is trying to revive some of the same old attacks from the 2021 runoffs to try and make Warnock the one with the baggage, but it seems like too little too late.

Also, just looking at their social media, Warnock's is far superior. There's a clear theme, you have a lot of videos of regular people/organizers explaining why they're voting Warnock and whatever, and videos of Warnock just out and about and giving speeches. Walkers seems a bit all over the place. His twitter pfp rn is literally a shirtless photo of him with boxing gloves which is telling considering he's running for Senator; I wouldn't be surprised if his logic is that big muscles will help him do better with women or smtg.

Yeah I’m not exactly seeing many good signs for Walker right now. His pathway was largely dependent on Democratic complacency.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah I’m not exactly seeing many good signs for Walker right now. His pathway was largely dependent on Democratic complacency.

I actually disagree with this — his pathway is just as dependent on persuasion as it is on Republican turnout, and it was never really dependent on a drop-off in Democratic turnout (which was never realistic in the first place). Re: the first point — there’s a reason the Walker people have been hitching their wagons to Kemp, and it’s not because of turnout. While only a fraction of those non-Walker/Kemp voters may be persuadable in the runoff election, they’re numerous enough to make a difference in what is still a 50/50 state.

I never bought Democrats becoming "complacent" in this race, nor was there ever any reason to believe that would be the case. Not only is it hard to overstate how reliant their coalition in GA has become, but it’s also never really been the case that Democratic and minority turnout is particularly low in the South, even in runoff elections.

Walker should be more worried about GOP turnout (again) lagging behind Democratic turnout than about Democratic turnout being particularly high.

Walker did very poorly with swing voters in the first round, and without Senate control on the line the case for him has not gotten any stronger with that group,

Honestly, who’s going to vote for Walker who didn’t already do so in the first round? If he wants to win he’s going to need to find new voters to close the gap.

[Tekken_Guy]

What does this mean, in a nutshell? What's the takeaway?

More or less, good for Warnock: since we're comparing EV turnout for the runoff to total general election EV turnout from a month ago, it's a pretty decent apples-to-apples comparison. Republican areas as a whole are falling even further behind Democratic areas in EV than they did in the GE. It's a favorable (tentative) indicator for Warnock.

The flip-side/devil's advocate argument would be that - historically - a greater percentage of the electorate in runoffs vote on Election Day than do in standard general elections (which I'm almost certain will be true for this runoff as well), so it's completely possible the rural areas make up any ground they're currently losing relative to the EV cycle from just a few weeks ago.

The flip side to the flip side. The short EV window means a lot more Democrats vote on Election Day than usual, and the ED vote won’t be as heavily Republican as it was in the GE.

[Tekken_Guy]

More than likely going to see more Dems vote on Election Day than what has been the case lately… I say that because despite having nearly a million early votes so far that only represents around a quarter of the total midterm votes.

Everyone acting like this race is over is making a mistake. I think Warnock is favored but the turnout factor is an enormous wild card. It’s tough to say which base is less motivated to come out and vote.
 

It’s simple. Democrats actually like their guy. Republicans are lukewarm on Walker and his voters have to be dragged to the polls.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/SpiroAgnewGhost/status/1598373066685689856

Ugh, looks like Herschel might have a chance after all.. this is major.

I hope you’re being sarcastic.

[Tekken_Guy]

This seat would mean Dems could be more confident in retaining control through the 2024 election, because a single vacancy in a state with an R governor controls appointments would no longer flip the chamber.

It could also have a significant impact on 2024.  In the event that election was an R blowout, they would need to win 11 seats for a supermajority. There are currently exactly 10 senate seats up in states where Trump won or came within 5% in 2016.  A Warnock win would mean R's would have to win VA or NM for a supermajority (along with MN and ME, which haven't really been close in any election since 2016).

That means Democrats cannot afford to lose the following senators if Walker wins.

Brown
Cortez Masto
Hassan
Kaine
Manchin
Ossoff
Rosen
Sanders
Shaheen
Tester
Warner
Welch

Only Manchin and Shaheen are above the age of

[Tekken_Guy]

This seat would mean Dems could be more confident in retaining control through the 2024 election, because a single vacancy in a state with an R governor controls appointments would no longer flip the chamber.

It could also have a significant impact on 2024.  In the event that election was an R blowout, they would need to win 11 seats for a supermajority. There are currently exactly 10 senate seats up in states where Trump won or came within 5% in 2016.  A Warnock win would mean R's would have to win VA or NM for a supermajority (along with MN and ME, which haven't really been close in any election since 2016).

That means Democrats cannot afford to lose the following senators if Walker wins.

Brown
Cortez Masto
Hassan
Kaine
Manchin
Ossoff
Rosen
Sanders
Shaheen
Tester
Warner
Welch

Only Manchin and Shaheen are above the age of

West Virginia actually has a same party appointment law currently on the books.  Of course, it could be repealed at any time.  However, I doubt it could be repealed in a way that applied retroactively to a vacancy that already existed.


Starting in January, Democrats will have a veto override majority in Vermont, so they could unilaterally pass a same party appointment law, written in a way that would cover Sanders as a Dem because he caucuses with them. 

In Nevada, Democrats could pass a same party appointment law before Sisolak leaves office.

Same party appointment rules could also theoretically be imposed by initiative in Montana, Nevada, and Ohio.

The only R governor/D senator states where absolutely nothing could be done prior to 2024 to ensure same party appointments are GA, NH, and VA.

What’s the deal with the inverse, if the KS/KY/LA/NC seats, Susan Collins’, or Ron Johnson’s seat opens up?

[Tekken_Guy]

This seat would mean Dems could be more confident in retaining control through the 2024 election, because a single vacancy in a state with an R governor controls appointments would no longer flip the chamber.

It could also have a significant impact on 2024.  In the event that election was an R blowout, they would need to win 11 seats for a supermajority. There are currently exactly 10 senate seats up in states where Trump won or came within 5% in 2016.  A Warnock win would mean R's would have to win VA or NM for a supermajority (along with MN and ME, which haven't really been close in any election since 2016).

Only Manchin and Shaheen are above the age of

Did you forget to finish the sentence?

Oh yeah. Manchin, Shaheen, and the VT Senators will all be above 70. Brown turns 70 before his term ends though.

[Tekken_Guy]

This thread summarizes current EV data quite well -

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1598400927333056529
TLDR: Atleast so far, Dem precints turnout has been better than GOP precints

I disagree with his notion that Forsyth’s trends are such that it will be the second most likely metro county to flip after Fayette. I think Spalding has that title locked down.

I think Fayette is on track to flip next week though.

Forsyth is trending Dem way faster than Spalding, even though the latter is closer.

If Fayette flips next week then Walker’s chances at winning are close to non-existent.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Warnock wins this and it will be pretty clear pretty fast that he has won.

If Walker somehow narrowly eeks it out though, that would be a huge gut punch, especially since he'll have the seat until 2028 and I just seem him as a laughingstock of a Senator who's incredibly ineffective. It still is theoretically possible with insane E-Day turnout but right now I'm leaning no to that happening.

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

I'd say Warnock wins by around 5 points or so. Walker needs an inside straight to win this. ED turnout needs to be both insane, and insanely R, for him to squeak by.

Would also be poetic for Walker to lose by 4.9, since that's the same margin Oz and Masters lost by.

[Tekken_Guy]

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

Warnock lost the new GA-6 by 17 points & the new GA-11 by 15 points. It's pretty funny to think that GA-11 could be closer than the "numerical district" McBath holds going forward. Of course, new GA-11 takes in some of the more Democratic Cobb areas, while new GA-6 stretches considerably further north than previously.

Either way, doubtful for either. If Warnock goes from winning by 2 in 2021 runoff to winning by even 4-5 next week, I really doubt enough of the excess will come from either district to make it possible (maybe GA-11, but just barely; say a 9.x-point loss for Warnock there).

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1598009332930863104

Walker actually only won the new GA-6 by 14, which is slightly less than what Trump won it by. If he actually had won it by 17 then Walker probably would have finished first in November. If it's in single digits expect a quick call for Warnock.

Yes, but you have to consider just where those white populations are.  The 6th (my new district, since I live in Forsyth County) now includes all of Forsyth and Dawson Counties and a big chunk of Cherokee -- all very Republican counties.  The part in Fulton County is the old Milton County, which is the most Republican part of Fulton.  The tiny parts of Cobb and Gwinnett in the district don't do that much to offset that base.

The Cobb portion is far from tiny. It has over 150,000 people living in it, about 1/5 of the district's population.

And honestly everywhere in the district outside of Dawson and the northernmost parts of Cherokee are stampeding leftward.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here is comparison of top16 counties turnout so far by race in runoff vs November EV -

If those numbers are correct then it would take a miracle for Walker to win at this point.

[Tekken_Guy]

Here is comparison of top16 counties turnout so far by race in runoff vs November EV -

If those numbers are correct then it would take a miracle for Walker to win at this point.

Walker's best hope at this point is Day turnout being much much higher than anticipated

And more Republican.

[Tekken_Guy]

I just received runoff polling toplines from the same individual (someone I've known for like a decade) affiliated with a Georgia-based GOP group that - for reference - gave me their early October 2020 poll that showed Biden +1 statewide, as well as their October 2022 Senate poll that showed Warnock +1 (both rounded to the nearest point).

Their Senate runoff poll - rounded - shows Warnock +5.

I said a few days ago that I found it difficult to see Warnock clearing 52% under the best-case scenario, but the EV data has improved for Democrats since then - and a 5-point win means 52.5% Warnock - so perhaps it is in fact feasible. Given their track record in 2020 and 2022, I want to believe!

The three worst Senate GOP candidates of the cycle all losing by 5. Poetic.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless ED turnout is close to the size of EV turnout (or greater), Walker is cooked.

Do you think it is not actually a real possibility that election day turnout may be higher than expected? I would think that with the shortened early vote period there are probably some people who may have voted early in the past during the longer periods in previous elections might end up not voting on election day because they are busy, because they forget, or even because of some freak weather or something.

And it is plausible those sorts of people could be disproportionately D voters. That is the one thing giving me pause, the possibility that Rs could win by being successful enough at suppressing the D early vote that they could end up winning on election day.

The early vote data on its face certainly does look very good, but with that major caveat regarding the shortened period.

Wait if people who intended to vote early stay home on Election Day, wouldn’t that mean Election Day turnout is lower?

I’m not sure if you mean that high or low turnout is good for Walker?

[Tekken_Guy]

Walker not only needs Election Day to have more raw voters than we saw in an almost certainly higher turnout contest (2021 runoff), but he needs to win them by more than Loeffler did in order to win.

And finally, in my hypothetical scenario, Walker does get higher raw election day turnout than in the 2020-21 runoff, but there is a logical explanation for why that could plausibly be the case, namely the shortened early vote period this time.

And in contrast to your statement that Walker would need to win them by more than Loeffler did to win, he wins them by a LOWER margin than Loeffler, but nevertheless that is enough for a narrow Walker victory.


So while I would rather be Warnock than Walker at this point, I don't think we are necessarily quite out of the woods yet.

The problem for Walker is not that he needs to outperform or only slightly underperform Loeffler’s 2021 margin. It’s that he heavily needs to outperform his first round margin of 15 by several points if ED turnout is the same as round 1 and there’s no “early voters switching to ED” bonus for Warnock.

[Tekken_Guy]

Herschel Walker's problem, shown in one chart.

The consensus is that the Early vote will be at least Warnock+16. He won it by 10 in the first round, and a 16% advantage actually nets him 40k more votes over Walker in the runoff.

Let's assume that the absolute ceiling for election day turnout is the 1.37 million voters who voted for either major party candidate.

If that's the case, Walker needs to win the election day vote by nearly 22 points just to break even with Warnock. He only won the first round by 16. And the lower election day turnout gets, the steeper the hill is to climb.

Walker needs to hope that the Warnock EV advantage is smaller than expected, that turnout on ED is both high and strongly Republican, and that Kemp voters who voted for Chase Oliver or left their ballot blank show up for Walker.

[Tekken_Guy]

To those in the know: are we likely to see any big discrepancies from the general to the special in terms of county margins? (As in counties shifting greatly from November 8th to this Toozdee?)

Use a no. 2 pencil, and show your work for partial credit

My general thinking is suburban Atlanta, where the GOP vote being Pro-Kemp compared to Pro-Walker was likely the greatest, Trump likely doesn't help there either   Only potential caveat to that is, those are likely higher propensity voters as opposed to a more rural part of the state.

I think that this is the place we see a lot of Walker first round voters stay home or outright switch to Warnock.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1600097733271990273

Just to clarify, the earlier discussion about Warnock potentially being north of 15 points ahead in the early vote, that was what we expect his lead in votes to be, whereas this tweet is referring to the partisan breakdown (and thus Warnock would still presumably be well north of 15 points when factoring in independents), right?

That would make sense. Warnock won by just above 10 in the EV so he should be above 15 if he overperforms partisan advantage similarly. At November-level ED turnout Walker has to win ED by 20 points to break even.

[Tekken_Guy]

As of right now, 174,099 of the 223,636 non-spoiled/canceled/rejected ballots have been received (77.84%).

An additional 18,527 votes received were received on Monday and reported today. The total EV received as of Sunday stands at 1,886,551 votes.

Another 3,239 ABMs received yesterday have been added, for a current EV total of 1,889,790 votes.

Maybe stating the obvious, but if the total EV is 1.8m and the SoS is predicting an Election Day vote of 1.2-1.4m that's a steep hill for the GOP?

There's barely any pathway whatsoever for Walker if ED turnout is below 1.4m.

Is there any reason to expect ED turnout to outpace November?