Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Oryxslayer]

Wait, NYT just changed to >95% for NY-23 and it's only R+6.4!

5% swing from 2020 which would match what we saw in NE-01 and MN-01

There are a handful of votes left from Ontario, Chemung and Tioga Counties there, but the margin will end up around R+8 or so, which is pretty bad for a Trump+11 district. Ithaca really turned out.

I'm shook, this is now the 2nd time in a special this summer that the *college area* of all places really outperformed expectations. Did not expect the youngs to be the ones turning out, but a great sign for Ds this fall.

The colleges are still out right now. These are the workers, teachers, shopowners, and staff who all service the transient population...and the super-partisans who choose to live in such a place. So yeah, the exact type of population primed for action after the Court chucked Roe.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1562284702173634561

[wbrocks67]

Wait, NYT just changed to >95% for NY-23 and it's only R+6.4!

5% swing from 2020 which would match what we saw in NE-01 and MN-01

There are a handful of votes left from Ontario, Chemung and Tioga Counties there, but the margin will end up around R+8 or so, which is pretty bad for a Trump+11 district. Ithaca really turned out.

I'm shook, this is now the 2nd time in a special this summer that the *college area* of all places really outperformed expectations. Did not expect the youngs to be the ones turning out, but a great sign for Ds this fall.

The colleges are still out right now. These are the workers, teachers, shopowners, and staff who all service the transient population...and the super-partisans who choose to live in such a place. So yeah, the exact type of population primed for action after the Court chucked Roe.

isn't college back in session this week for most?

[ProgressiveModerate]

So how big of a deal is this win? What was the PVI?

Pretty big deal. The district was Biden + 1.5 and was slightly to the right of teh tipping point on both the new and old lines. It also seems like Ryan could even narrowly beat Bidens + 1.5 margin.

Another important dynamic was the turnout which is really what allowed Ryan to win even as Molinaro overperformed in his hom base of Duthcess County and some rural areas.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wait, NYT just changed to >95% for NY-23 and it's only R+6.4!

5% swing from 2020 which would match what we saw in NE-01 and MN-01

There are a handful of votes left from Ontario, Chemung and Tioga Counties there, but the margin will end up around R+8 or so, which is pretty bad for a Trump+11 district. Ithaca really turned out.

I'm shook, this is now the 2nd time in a special this summer that the *college area* of all places really outperformed expectations. Did not expect the youngs to be the ones turning out, but a great sign for Ds this fall.

The colleges are still out right now. These are the workers, teachers, shopowners, and staff who all service the transient population...and the super-partisans who choose to live in such a place. So yeah, the exact type of population primed for action after the Court chucked Roe.

isn't college back in session this week for most?

This week is the time when many are moving into their dorms in stuff. College hasn't officially started.

[walleye26]

Screw the NY news, what about ALASKA?

[new_patomic]

It should probably give some pause that the formula here for Dem overperformance is (relatively) great turnout in Dem counties overwhelming weaker margins elsewhere. Would be pretty shocking to have similar turnout differential come November.

But lol to the red wave.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait, NYT just changed to >95% for NY-23 and it's only R+6.4!

5% swing from 2020 which would match what we saw in NE-01 and MN-01

There are a handful of votes left from Ontario, Chemung and Tioga Counties there, but the margin will end up around R+8 or so, which is pretty bad for a Trump+11 district. Ithaca really turned out.

I'm shook, this is now the 2nd time in a special this summer that the *college area* of all places really outperformed expectations. Did not expect the youngs to be the ones turning out, but a great sign for Ds this fall.

The colleges are still out right now. These are the workers, teachers, shopowners, and staff who all service the transient population...and the super-partisans who choose to live in such a place. So yeah, the exact type of population primed for action after the Court chucked Roe.

isn't college back in session this week for most?

Yes looks like classes started yesterday for Ithaca, but the previous statement still holds true - thats who are the majority of voters in college towns. Weird early start, most of the Schools in Boston where I studied started after Labor Day.

[Roll Roons]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So how big of a deal is this win? What was the PVI?

Pretty big deal. The district was Biden + 1.5 and was slightly to the right of teh tipping point on both the new and old lines. It also seems like Ryan could even narrowly beat Bidens + 1.5 margin.

Another important dynamic was the turnout which is really what allowed Ryan to win even as Molinaro overperformed in his hom base of Duthcess County and some rural areas.

Ding Ding Ding
Republicans didn't vote. They will in November.
I do think this disproves the whole idea dems aren't enthusiastic. They are Fired up!

[wbrocks67]

It should probably give some pause that the formula here for Dem overperformance is (relatively) great turnout in Dem counties overwhelming weaker margins elsewhere. Would be pretty shocking to have similar turnout differential come November.

But lol to the red wave.

I mean, turnout wasn't and hasn't been terrible in red areas. 30% of 2020 in a random special election is still a strong performance.

Same with NE-01 and MN-01. Red areas  *did* turn out. But blue areas are just getting insane turnout for the most part.

Kind of like a reverse of VA-GOV last year. Dems actually had good turnout. But GOPs was just REALLY great.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562282242499661824

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

The problem with that advice is that that's what the party mostly is.

[wbrocks67]

Screw the NY news, what about ALASKA?

Apparently it looks like another 8K dropped there but Palin and Begich took 5-6K of it compared to Peltola's like 2K so I'm rather confused how that was, since this is all mail-ins.

Peltola dropped from 39.4% to 38.9%. Still another ~10K out though I think.

[wbrocks67]

So how big of a deal is this win? What was the PVI?

Pretty big deal. The district was Biden + 1.5 and was slightly to the right of teh tipping point on both the new and old lines. It also seems like Ryan could even narrowly beat Bidens + 1.5 margin.

Another important dynamic was the turnout which is really what allowed Ryan to win even as Molinaro overperformed in his hom base of Duthcess County and some rural areas.

Ding Ding Ding
Republicans didn't vote. They will in November.
I do think this disproves the whole idea dems aren't enthusiastic. They are Fired up!

sigh. this isn't true.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562282242499661824

Off topic, but Youngkin definitely would've lost in Virginia if the election was held this year.

Mayra Flores may have even lost as well if her special was held after Dobbs…

[Devout Centrist]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

Molinaro did none of those things and he still lost

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

Molinaro did none of those things and he still lost

The party as a whole would have to do this. I doubt it's going to.

[Comrade Funk]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

Your party's hardcore base consist of evangelical cultists and anti-fun Catholics. This is the GOP. Has been for awhile.

[new_patomic]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

Molinaro did none of those things and he still lost

The party as a whole would have to do this. I doubt it's going to.

I'm sure Blake Masters is gearing up to pivot

Any second now

[DrScholl]

At this point it seems like the midterm could end up being a least change election. NY-19 is the type of district they need to win in order to flip the House and this result shows they aren't flipping Biden voters or able to rely on Democrats not turning out.

[windjammer]

I Guess I'm going to be wrong but I still think Ryan is going to win this

Hehehehehe

[Eraserhead]

Why isn't the fake media giving this result more coverage? This is big.

[NOVA Green]

Petition to eliminate the poll question posted on the thread.

Nina Turner has long since lost her primary run...

Might make it a bit easier to read, unless the OP chooses to change polling questions on a weekly basis.

X NOVA GREEN

Please sign if you support the petition to make the SE thread more readable and less confusing.

[Adam Griffin]

It should probably give some pause that the formula here for Dem overperformance is (relatively) great turnout in Dem counties overwhelming weaker margins elsewhere. Would be pretty shocking to have similar turnout differential come November.

This is crucial. Some on here are going to be very disappointed when national turnout in November reaches 110-120m voters.