Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[walleye26]

If I looked correctly, in 2018 Stivers beat the Democrat by 1 point in Franklin County’s part of the district, and by 5 in 2020. Im guessing this is the suburbs of Columbus and not the city itself, right?

[walleye26]

Do you guys think Russo will win the Franklin county portion in November? Stivers won it by 1.5 in 2018, and by 5 last year, but this will be a lower turnout race.

[walleye26]

OH-11 going overwhelmingly Dem

Rs ahead 54%-46% in the 15th so far

 The 15th is badly gerrymandered  Like the rest of Ohio, and this is an off your election with a Democrat in the White House. The only issue here is  The margin. Hopefully russo can avoid an embarrassment.

This seems to be a crazy overperformance. Is early vote dropped first?

[walleye26]

Are a lot of these reports early votes or Election Day? Does anybody know what NE reports first?

[walleye26]

It's mostly early vote, scrap what I said.

So in other words, she will lose this lead as the night goes on.

[walleye26]

This is a weird side note, but it's weird to think about how theoretically NE Rs wanting to unpack NE-02 could lead to a 2D-1R delegation at some point this decade, even if NE stays pretty firmly R overall. NE-03 is a very effective pack.

Anyways it's good to see Dems appear to be matching Biden in this special election. Again though these can have weird dynamics.

Yeah, Lincoln, while no Madison, is growing decently and is clearly moving left. A shift left in the Sarpy County portion could flip this district. Sarpy + Lancaster is 71% of this districts population.

[walleye26]

Based upon the rural counties nearly entirely in so far, Brooks appears to be doing best and Lancaster where she overperformed Biden in Seward County quite a bit. Flood appears to be overperforming in rural counties in the Northern and Western parts of the district

Don’t you mean Sarpy? She’s only down there by 4, Trump won it by 12.

[walleye26]

What's left is election day vote which should run more Republican BUT several of the smaller counties have 100% precincts completed while Lancaster and Sarpy have none. I don't want to get my hopes up but maybe there is a chance...

It looks like a few votes remain in Flood’s home base. If she really really runs up the score in Lancaster she might have a miracle shot, but this is pretty much over.

[walleye26]

I also wonder if this election had been held in April when students were at school in Lincoln if that would have tightened this up quite a bit.

[walleye26]

As of 9am central, I checked the Lancaster County election website and they said there are still 1,400 early votes and about 750 provisional ballots left. I’m guessing those lean Dem, so this margin should narrow.

[walleye26]

Looking at Sarpy County’s precinct results, the La Vista and Papillon areas went from red to blue (2020 results there were slightly Trump, last night slightly Brooks). Bellevue had a few precincts that moved left, but a few precincts in the northeastern part right on the river/Douglas county line moved right a bit.

[walleye26]

As Lancaster county dumped the rest of its early vote, the margin has gone down to 5.8 points, 52.9 to 47.1.

[walleye26]

Any predictions for tomorrow? I’m going to guess that turnout in Rochester will be pretty high, and Blue Earth and Winona County vote blue, but they get overwhelmed everywhere else. My guess is R+4.

[walleye26]

Has all the E-day vote been counted now? I thought I saw some rurals haven’t reported yet.

[walleye26]

When will alaska dump the 33K ballots?

[walleye26]

Here's how the latest batch came down:

Peltola 1,135 (49.5%)
Palin 566 (24.7%)
Begich 523 (22.8%)
Write-ins 71 (3.1%)
= 2,295

Where things are at:

Peltola 38.2% (was 38.0%)
Palin 31.8% (was 31.9%)
Begich 28.5% (was 28.6%)

Assuming that the remaining 31K ballots break down that way, I feel like Petola might be in decent shape.

[walleye26]

I keep thinking we have to be close to all counted…NE-1 was 61K for GOP and 54K for Dem and MN-1 was 60K GOP and 55K Dem…We have passed those numbers here

[walleye26]

Screw the NY news, what about ALASKA?

[walleye26]

I’m just here waiting for the Alaska drop….

[walleye26]

When do the next round of ballots drop? Tonight?