Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Oryxslayer]

Probably a redistricting casualty jumping out before his district becomes the one reapportioned out of the state.

[Oryxslayer]

Thread Title is going to end up being rather awkward I think.

[Oryxslayer]

Summit dumped about 120 ED votes: Brown 62-49 (virtually identical margin to previous vote).

Interesting that Brown did so well with the election day votes.

Now it's up to 190-169 Turner with 10 precincts Eday counted.

[Oryxslayer]

Let me remind everyone that in Montana's 2018 Democratic House primary, John Heenan took an early lead when his stronghold of Yellowstone County came in early, but Kathleen Williams captured the lead when her stronghold of Gallatin County came in later and she eventually won that contest overall. So for this race, because only a small percentage of the expected vote has been reported as of this moment, anything is still possible in terms of the outcome.

Thing is the places with highest turnout in Cuyahoga are inside Brown's district. For Turner to benefit from this she would have to have a lock on Whites, and that would not be advisable either given the larger AA vote.

Anyway, Summit is 945-817 Turner on Eday with 33 Precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

Summit is now 66/82 precincts, about 1K more votes total are expected from the county.

[Oryxslayer]

There are now only two uncounted Eday precincts in Summit. The county is basically done. Turner currently leads it by 32 votes out of about 6.5K democratic ballots cast.

[Oryxslayer]

It's hard to know exactly where the remaining vote is, but I think the chance of Turner winning is basically zero.

Look at the map above, we know exactly what's left.

To that end, more Eday from Cuyahoga. Some from Cleveland, more from the south suburbs as well.

[Oryxslayer]

For those who were wondering why everyone's calling now: the most recent update included a bunch of downtown Cleveland - which should be Turners best area - but she was only able to lead in the dump by a little bit.

[Oryxslayer]

Summit County put out their precinct report a while ago.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like 100% is in:

Shontel Brown: 37,666   50.2%

Nina Turner: 33,420   44.5%

[Oryxslayer]

A much more complex divide than "Blacks vs Whites." Brown locked up suburban support no matter the ethnicity, no matter if said suburbs are poor or rich and gated. Turner did better in urban areas. Urban AAs were divided between the two, with some of Brown's best urban precincts being in the most AA parts of East Cleveland. Suburban whites went hard for Brown, but Urban whites in the west city and in the (younger) downtown were Turner's base.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

source

Explains a lot, I think.

Other than why Ron Hood still only managed an effective tie for second, technically third place.

The answer is, too many people actually know Ron Hood.

I will also comment that this race is a prime example of how lawn signs are a piss poor indicator of polling strength. I had driven through Perry County a couple times in the last few weeks and saw Bunches of cooperrider signs. I swear his ratio of votes to lawn signs was only about 15 to 1. Likewise I traveled through Jeff larae District Affair bit and saw massive numbers of signs for him. Even in those areas though, Carey signs were relatively rare even compared to those four say Bob Peterson and some of the others who've finished well back in the pack.

This was a weird race in that basically every non-Carey serious candidate had a clear base of support. You can see this in the results below Carey, with the legislators margins overwhelmingly coming from their districts and Ruth Edmonds obviously doing better in Franklin. Kunze for example won negligible votes outside of Franklin. Carey's support was relatively evenly distributed. This means you will see lots of lawn signs for the base candidates in their base areas, outnumbering Carey in a particular area but maybe not overall.

[Oryxslayer]

IDK if anyone posted this yet, but apparently both campaigns’ internal polls near the end of the race showed Brown was winning:

https://twitter.com/danielmarans/status/1422948401419849739?s=21

This also is probably why DFP never released a poll despite their track record. I figured yesterday that the fact they never released one while under contract for Turner was a big hint that Brown was ahead - which is why I predicted a confident Brown win yesterday.

[Oryxslayer]

The Sandercrats have a fundamental misunderstanding.

They think they are like the Tea Party and the more they sh*t on their own party, the better chance they have of getting elected.

That is not how it works.

I've noticed that a decent amount (not all) of the "squad" has learned this. You'll notice some criticisms yes but it's usually directed towards the most moderate members, not the "establishment". AOC for example has a lot less foot-in-mouth moments than she did before.

Nina Turner didn't learn that lesson and it cost her.

Once again I didn't even like her so I don't really care that she lost.

It definitely feels like there is a contingent within the Progressive movement who think burning it all down to build on top is more important than achieving any progressive goals presently. Bernie kinda cultivated this faction in the latter days of the 2016 campaign, which brought them to the forefront. However, as noted, the elected progressives mostly have shunned these commentators - so much so that people like Shawn King and Brianna Joy Grey now seem to be on the outside looking in at the Progressive discussion rather than the other way around. And that is a good thing.

[Oryxslayer]

The ride never ends!

Probably an announcement that her campaign ain't ending and is going on to 2022. Which is just more similarities between the Turner campaign and some of the most annoying/unprofessional campaigns from those without a progressive ideology.

Like has been said many times over: there are many ways to run good campaigns, and many different types of good candidates - no particular faction has a monopoly on these things. For example, Cori Bush had the right candidate message for the moment in MO-01, but her campaign organization was average. But Turner is and had neither.

[Oryxslayer]

Really depends upon how blue the mail votes will be if ranked choice makes it close, and we probably won't know that for several days. And before people complain about the speed of the count, this is F'ing  Alaska: bigger than Texas and in many places not connected by roads.

[Oryxslayer]

When will we know the results of NY 19th? Please tell me it won’t be like in 2020 and we had to wait weeks for New York’s results

I believe the law has changed after the reaction to 2020, so all absentee/mail ballots must be processed within 4 days of return, with all received before today are theoretically counted tonight. So while the count might go long, it will be for a increasingly small portion of the vote, whereas in the past the counties needed to wait until the return period fully elapsed to open any whatsoever.

[Oryxslayer]

When will alaska dump the 33K ballots?

If Cinyc's tweets last week were accurately timestamped to the limited ballot drops, then probably around midnight est.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1562249723913900032?s=20&t=VAAJwu9KZCrW5xQ...

More Alaska

[Oryxslayer]

Oh wait now we’re at 119.3K on DDHQ and Ryan is still up by 4.2K votes, 51.7 - 48.3%.

That was Rensselaer County reporting most of its vote. Otsego is the main one outstanding now. Then there should be only a few stragglers here and there, favoring Molinaro but there are just not that many votes once Otsego finishes. I think Ryan finishes the night up around 2k votes, which should get padded slightly by late absentees and affidavit ballots.

This is what I am beginning to think as well, either candidate by the tiniest of hairs at the end of the night and then then weekend unprocessed votes give it to Ryan. Which begs the question...why? Molinaro is outperforming Trump and most benchmarks where he needs to.

 The reason why Ryan is ahead is basically all down to Ulster and Columbia having higher turnout than the rest of the district to a substantial degree. Which matches with both previous specials and our overall expectations: Dem areas are punching above their weight in strongholds and suburbs even though they are slightly losing ground in marginal regions and GOP ones. Essentially, the environment is would still be tilting towards the GOP, but the situation in the past few months - mainly thanks to the Court - has activated partisans who might not usually have participated in midterm elections.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT percentage in keeps ticking down. Down to 88%.

Its fairly Simple:

Rensselaer: 56/56 precincts
Columbia: 62/62 precincts
Dutchess: 120/120 precincts
Greene: 52/52 precincts
Sullivan: 68/68 precincts
Delaware: 55/55 precincts
Schoharie: Says All Precincts (does not say number)
Montgomery: 1/1? (probably like above)
Broome: 1/1 precinct
Otsego: Now 50/50 precincts

Ulster: 157/164 Precincts

Any percentages left showing on NYT/DDHQ/other sites are estimations of unprocessed early/absentees.


This is over.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait, NYT just changed to >95% for NY-23 and it's only R+6.4!

5% swing from 2020 which would match what we saw in NE-01 and MN-01

There are a handful of votes left from Ontario, Chemung and Tioga Counties there, but the margin will end up around R+8 or so, which is pretty bad for a Trump+11 district. Ithaca really turned out.

I'm shook, this is now the 2nd time in a special this summer that the *college area* of all places really outperformed expectations. Did not expect the youngs to be the ones turning out, but a great sign for Ds this fall.

The colleges are still out right now. These are the workers, teachers, shopowners, and staff who all service the transient population...and the super-partisans who choose to live in such a place. So yeah, the exact type of population primed for action after the Court chucked Roe.

[Oryxslayer]

Wait, NYT just changed to >95% for NY-23 and it's only R+6.4!

5% swing from 2020 which would match what we saw in NE-01 and MN-01

There are a handful of votes left from Ontario, Chemung and Tioga Counties there, but the margin will end up around R+8 or so, which is pretty bad for a Trump+11 district. Ithaca really turned out.

I'm shook, this is now the 2nd time in a special this summer that the *college area* of all places really outperformed expectations. Did not expect the youngs to be the ones turning out, but a great sign for Ds this fall.

The colleges are still out right now. These are the workers, teachers, shopowners, and staff who all service the transient population...and the super-partisans who choose to live in such a place. So yeah, the exact type of population primed for action after the Court chucked Roe.

isn't college back in session this week for most?

Yes looks like classes started yesterday for Ithaca, but the previous statement still holds true - thats who are the majority of voters in college towns. Weird early start, most of the Schools in Boston where I studied started after Labor Day.

[Oryxslayer]

Next scheduled update from the Last Frontier is on Friday.

[Oryxslayer]

One aspect of these specials that hasn't been discussed at all: New York finally (mostly) got it together when it comes to counting votes!!!!

On the other hand, they were an absolute disaster when it came to conveying how much of their vote had already been counted and what was still left; still a very poor showing for them in my book.

Baby steps. It's progress in some way.

I would put the blame on that for the press. Yes, "x precincts reporting" is now a faulty piece of info, but "x% reporting" is a simplification of the count that masks important processing information. Like a lot of people could see that Ryan would win about 30 minutes before the calls were made, but only  because they were the ones who went to the county boards and saw what precincts were there.

Seems like the ideal way to present ballot count estimations would be 2-4 "progress bars per county depending upon what is allowed in the state: mail vote, early vote, E-Day, and others like Provisionals or military. But might be too much clutter.