Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[DrScholl]

Nina Turner's podcast is sponsored by Goldman Sachs. That's really progressive.

[DrScholl]

Turner has won only one contested election in her career so I think it's premature to call her the front runner.

[DrScholl]

How will redistricting affect this district in 2022? I assume Ohio will lose 2 EVs and I think they might split up Cleveland

Cleveland can't be split unless you do a dummymander with a bunch of bacon strips into rural areas.

[DrScholl]

Turner once supported into, but she flipped to Sanders allegedly after Clinton refused to hire her as a surrogate. The same people who complained about Clinton being "coronated" are not chastising Clinton for endorsing Turner's opponent. Not everyone has to support Turner for goodness sake.

[DrScholl]

I'll add that Clinton is a great endorsement to receive if you want to I raise money. And it is entirely possible that Brown asked for an endorsement. One thing people who haven't ever worked or volunteered inside of a campaign at the upper level don't know is that candidates often ask for endorsements.

[DrScholl]

She seems to have backed off of Medicare For All and made it a state issue

https://www.cleveland.com/opinion/2021/07/nina-turner-in-the-democratic-primary-for-the-11th-congressional-district.html

As she recently suggested to cleveland.com reporter Seth R. Richardson, while she supports Medicare for All, that idea might best grow outward from the states rather than being imposed from Washington.

And the paper also praised her for standing up to a union (isn't she supposed to be pro-union?)

The same Nina Turner who stood up to the Cleveland Teachers Union and delivered state legislative votes across the aisle for Mayor Frank Jackson when he was fighting for his all-important Cleveland Plan for reforming the Cleveland public schools

[DrScholl]

LMAO one Brown internal showing Brown losing by 7 points and suddenly everyone's ready to make this a tossup. I mean, come on, guys, Turner and Brown aren't even the only candidates in the race, Turner doesn't necessarily need to reach 50% to win. If a Brown internal not only can't get her ahead but can't even get her within 5 points I think it's pretty clear who the frontrunner is. Frankly, this makes me more confident Turner will win, if anything.

Closing the gap that dramatically says a lot. This isn't the sort of district where progressive vs. establishment is going to be a deciding factor, it will be about who speaks to the district better and Brown has an opening there because Turner has relied a lot on out of state fundraising and is almost running a more national campaign. It's not out of the question for Brown to win this.

[DrScholl]

Very funny watching the DNC try to cancel Turner for Maybe Not Voting Blue 5 years ago while elevating the worst of the #NeverBernie coalition. Or turning a blind eye to the people who actively backed Republicans over progressives.

Not letting Turner run unopposed is not canceling and I do think that her allegedly not voting Democratic is a valid topic of discussion when she is seeking the Democratic nomination in a heavily Democratic district.

[DrScholl]

LMAO one Brown internal showing Brown losing by 7 points and suddenly everyone's ready to make this a tossup. I mean, come on, guys, Turner and Brown aren't even the only candidates in the race, Turner doesn't necessarily need to reach 50% to win. If a Brown internal not only can't get her ahead but can't even get her within 5 points I think it's pretty clear who the frontrunner is. Frankly, this makes me more confident Turner will win, if anything.

Closing the gap that dramatically says a lot. This isn't the sort of district where progressive vs. establishment is going to be a deciding factor, it will be about who speaks to the district better and Brown has an opening there because Turner has relied a lot on out of state fundraising and is almost running a more national campaign. It's not out of the question for Brown to win this.

No, it does not because the comparison drawn is from a Turner internal to a Brown internal. Honestly, none of the public numbers have come from high-quality sources, but Turner should still win this by 10%.

No, you are misinformed. Brown's own previous internal had her way down and in comparison to that she has gained. Turner's internal has nothing to do with this.

A new internal poll by her top competitor, Cuyahoga County Democratic Chair Shontel Brown, suggests the Democratic primary race has tightened. In the survey, conducted in early July, Turner led with 43 percent, followed by Brown with 36 percent.

That 7-point gap is a much closer spread than earlier polling from both candidates. An April survey from Brown's campaign found her trailing Turner by 32 points, 42 percent to 10 percent.

[DrScholl]

I don't think AOC is negative or a positive in this particular district. It's not the sort of places where being progressive really means much but it's not an area where most of the people think about AOC 24/7 like they do in more Republican districts.

[DrScholl]

So now suddenly progressives are unforgiving of criminals? I am not saying I agree with the hiring, but it strikes me as hypocritical that progressives are attacking this when many of them are pro-prison abolition and all for giving criminals second chances.

[DrScholl]

Anyway, this isn't the Individual Politics board.  I just think it's pretty desperate and disgusting to try and attack Shontel because she let this guy get involved in community event organizing 15 years after he completed his sentence.

Well, yes, but more to the point — this probably cannot be used as a cudgel against the Brown campaign because his LinkedIn also lists him as "Lead Campaign Volunteer, Nina Turner for Ohio Secretary of State."

Oops. Looks like Turner fans didn't look over things thoroughly before running with this attack.

[DrScholl]

It really was Turner that nationalized this race by bringing in outside help from the start and I think the recent barrage of attacks against Brown shows that this race is not as safe for Turner as previously thought. They even brought out borderline racist attacks.

https://twitter.com/ArrogantNBlack/status/1417647388299300864

The whole "girrllll" line was completely unnecessary.

[DrScholl]

If Turner loses this race it is probably because she chose to make it too much about being progressive as opposed to making it more local. This most certainly isn't a local race, but areas like Cleveland and Akron suffering from job losses and population decline want to have a representative that knows their issues.

[DrScholl]

Things are closing, but it still looks fairly stagnant.

[DrScholl]

Brown probably won't be much different than Stokes, Tubbs Jones and Fudge. The race came down to style more so than ideology and Brown probably managed to fit the style the district is used to being served by.

With that being said, the Cleveland portion of the district knows who Nina Turner is from her time on the Cleveland Council and in the Senate. I am not familiar with Turner's personality before the presidential primaries, but I suspect that her persona was different. Lots of voters don't trust candidates who switch up their personalities too much.

[DrScholl]

At this point it seems like the midterm could end up being a least change election. NY-19 is the type of district they need to win in order to flip the House and this result shows they aren't flipping Biden voters or able to rely on Democrats not turning out.