Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[windjammer]

It should probably give some pause that the formula here for Dem overperformance is (relatively) great turnout in Dem counties overwhelming weaker margins elsewhere. Would be pretty shocking to have similar turnout differential come November.

This is crucial. Some on here are going to be very disappointed when national turnout in November reaches 110-120m voters.

Well this means that 2010 and 2014 won't happen again because democrats aren't forgetting to vote lol

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So how big of a deal is this win? What was the PVI?

Pretty big deal. The district was Biden + 1.5 and was slightly to the right of teh tipping point on both the new and old lines. It also seems like Ryan could even narrowly beat Bidens + 1.5 margin.

Another important dynamic was the turnout which is really what allowed Ryan to win even as Molinaro overperformed in his hom base of Duthcess County and some rural areas.

Ding Ding Ding
Republicans didn't vote. They will in November.
I do think this disproves the whole idea dems aren't enthusiastic. They are Fired up!

But the scenario where everyone turns out on both sides is still pretty great for Dems.  The reason the in-party usually craters in midterms is that their side is unmotivated.

[Adam Griffin]

It should probably give some pause that the formula here for Dem overperformance is (relatively) great turnout in Dem counties overwhelming weaker margins elsewhere. Would be pretty shocking to have similar turnout differential come November.

This is crucial. Some on here are going to be very disappointed when national turnout in November reaches 110-120m voters.

Well this means that 2010 and 2014 won't happen again because democrats aren't forgetting to vote lol

It just means that any swing or sway among independents is going to be felt across the large majority of competitive districts as they consistently tilt R rather than D, and that there'll be no turnout differential to exploit in order to compensate for it!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1562291667192913920?s=20&t=FarjnC...
https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1562294017659912192?s=20&t=FarjnC...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Damn Ryan really pulled it out. This is an awful sign for republicans going forward.

If Ryan keeps his seat and doesn’t get too comfortable in the house I’d imagine he’ll be a big name going forward

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Honestly, perhaps the GOP needs some cold water splashed in its face.

Shut the f**k up about 2020. Do not advocate for total bans on abortion. Do not say you want Obergefell overturned.

Molinaro did none of those things and he still lost

And he would have lost even worse if he had not.

[Lief 🗽]

Great night for Tom Malinowski.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Molinari probably wins the new NY 19, Ryan is running in NY 18, but this tells you about the Ryan v Vance rave if we can have Pat Ryan win so can Tim Ryan that's probably why the media isn't giving this race much attention

[Gass3268]

This is what happens when you have Republicans telling raped teenagers that they can't have an abortion.

[Lief 🗽]

lol

https://twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1561893492267393027

[Devils30]

Great night for Tom Malinowski.

Yep, I expect this one to move to tossup soon. High education levels could be a Dem swing from 2020 that offsets Kean's local strength. Malinowski also already represents Kean's entire state senate district slate of towns in NJ-7.

NY-18, NH-1, MN-2 should move to lean D.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida still sucks, and I think the Democratic Party needs to give up on it and focus those efforts elsewhere, but otherwise has been a pretty damn satisfying night! Democrats continue overperforming in special elections, several far-right maniacs lost their primaries, and against all odds and faulty polls Democrats held a bellwether district!

Dark Brandon August continues delivering! Can Alaska be good to us too now?

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1562286333380411392

[Adam Griffin]

lol

https://twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1561893492267393027

https://twitter.com/adamgriffin/status/1562299309474955264

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a range of seats the Rs will get it's a 235/210RH and 50/56,0/D Senate and it's a 50 chance we get Divided Govt and 40% Secular Trifecta and 10 R Congress I keep saying this but Old School puts this statement out because he is mad Rs lost

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562295564557066240

I don't know...NY-19 is quite rural and only 30% college degree. VA-2, NJ-7 and a lot of suburban swing seats are better for Dems compared to this one. Molinaro is also a top recruit.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1562296386284027904?s=20&t=FarjnC4K5stM3X...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’m now firmly invested in the idea that Republicans ceiling is 230, more likely around 220/225. With the likes of MTG and the few “moderate” types left the house will get absolutely nothing done.

At this point I’m not convinced McCarthy is going to have the votes for speaker, especially if they’re below 220

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

NYBOE suprisingly did a pretty good job tonight. Race was called and votes counted within a reasonable time with not obvious mistakes or errors.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562288030005821440?t=aPR8cA45HGZxAICoY...

[ProgressiveModerate]

NYBOE suprisingly did a pretty good job tonight. Race was called and votes counted within a reasonable time with not obvious mistakes or errors.

Yeah I think Kathy and the supermajorities passed a bill that aimed to make the process more efficient and while it’s not perfect it’s way better than what we saw in 2020. I think my main critical now is the lack of clarity on how many ballots are outstanding but tbh I think some of that needs to be fixed on the county level (and late arriving absentees means you never completely know)

[Lief 🗽]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1562288030005821440?t=aPR8cA45HGZxAICoY...

Interesting, I wonder what the result would be if you equalized turnout in all the counties.

[politicallefty]

Not sure where more votes came from, but the margin is now close to 5k votes (3.8%) with over 132k votes.

Edit: It was Columbia, which is now running at 56% of 2020 turnout. The margin is also at 23%, well above Biden’s 17% win.

[windjammer]

It should probably give some pause that the formula here for Dem overperformance is (relatively) great turnout in Dem counties overwhelming weaker margins elsewhere. Would be pretty shocking to have similar turnout differential come November.

This is crucial. Some on here are going to be very disappointed when national turnout in November reaches 110-120m voters.

Well this means that 2010 and 2014 won't happen again because democrats aren't forgetting to vote lol

It just means that any swing or sway among independents is going to be felt across the large majority of competitive districts as they consistently tilt R rather than D, and that there'll be no turnout differential to exploit in order to compensate for it!

To be fair with you, I do not believe that a democratic wave is happening because I believe like you that now higher turnout elections don't necessarily favour democrats.

However, this isn't going to be a repeat of 2014&2010 because the dem base is going to vote en masse too!