2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Brittain33]

Final Selzer coming tomorrow at 5:30 Central

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CCES is one survey where you really -can- dig into the crosstabs even for demographically small groups because the sample size is so large.  A couple interesting things I noticed:

- Republicans lead among "Independents" (Party ID) 45-37, but Dems lead among "Moderates" (Ideology) 52-32.

- The racial breakdown is pretty sensible, unlike a lot of polls we've seen:
-- Whites are 48-42 GOP
-- Blacks are 76-9 Dem
-- Hispanics are 49-36 Dem
-- Asians are 60-25 Dem
The one that caught my eye is the "other" racial category, which is 51-34 GOP, substantially more Republican than White voters! Who are these people?  They can't just be biracial.  I've seen this on a few other polls, but always just dismissed it as a tiny sample.

- The age gap is pretty much what I expected: 65+ are GOP+9 while 18-44 are Dem+21.
- But a smaller gender gap than in 2020 from what I can tell: Men are GOP+5, Women are Dem+11

- Voters who "somewhat disapprove" of Biden are Dem+18!

That Indy lead should terrify Dems.

Not entirely wrong. But do remember, Romney won indys in 2012 and still lost. 45-37 is not an overwhelming lead, anyway...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Final Selzer coming tomorrow at 5:30 Central

Inb4 many Atlas posters either use this poll to change their rating, or use it to justify their existing rating. Calling it now.

[2016]

In case this hasn't been discussed here COOK REPORT says "Best-Case Scenario for Democrats is a 50-50 Senate Tie". Their updated Forecast is D+0 to R+3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In case this hasn't been discussed here COOK REPORT says "Best-Case Scenario for Democrats is a 50-50 Senate Tie". Their updated Forecast is D+0 to R+3.

Who cares we already voted LAXALT, Walker, Oz and Bolduc are losing I put in the polls do you really think Warnock is gonna lose and MARIST has him ahead and Survey USa, and LAXALT is already losing and I posted a poll that has Bolduc down 10 and Johnson and Oz are tied or losing it's a 52/48 D map with OH and NC as shot

MARIST already polled AZ, GA and PA and ALL RS ARE LOSING AND LAXALT AND BOLDUC ARE LOSING IN POLLS TODAY AND JOHNSON IS ONLY AHEAD NY 2 wont Win IF EVERS WHOM IS LEADING BY 2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oprah endorses Fetterman over Dr Oz I think he hits 60% if not 55/45 like Shapiro and Evers and Barnes win 51/49 and so win Sisolak and CCM win 51/49

Lake and Kelly and Kemp and WARNOCK will split votes

52/48

Ryan split votes with DeWine and Reynolds, Abbott get 60% and Beasley can win

I think upsets because GOV ELECT Joy Hofmeister if it's a red wave wouldn't be leading

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook and Sabato needs to stop it it's just solidify the blue wall but OH, NC and FL always been upsets not WI and PA

[Lief 🗽]

Final Selzer coming tomorrow at 5:30 Central

Inb4 many Atlas posters either use this poll to change their rating, or use it to justify their existing rating. Calling it now.

As they should, Selzer is the gold standard. It correctly identified the late GOP surges in 2016 and 2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Final Selzer coming tomorrow at 5:30 Central

Inb4 many Atlas posters either use this poll to change their rating, or use it to justify their existing rating. Calling it now.

As they should, Selzer is the gold standard. It correctly identified the late GOP surges in 2016 and 2020.

No disagreement there. But it's good to take things lightly from time to time! Sometimes you need to poke fun at yourself.

[Vespucci]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

[soundchaser]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

Based on WHAT?

[President Johnson]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

North Carolina Lean Republican, but Colorado (!) and Washington state tossups? And New York just Likely Schumer? You RCP guys are clowns.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol CO, WA, AZ, NH arent Tossups, it's a 52/45 map anyways

Bennet, Murray are gonna win 55/45 watch

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Let this remove any doubt that RCP is anything but a right-wing hack firm. This is bordering on Dick Morris levels of bad predictions.

[soundchaser]

Let this remove any doubt that RCP is anything but a right-wing hack firm. This is bordering on Dick Morris levels of bad predictions.

I dunno, "Strongly Obama Arkansas" is pretty hard to beat.

[Person Man]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

This is propaganda.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How is NY not Safe D?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

This is propaganda.

No no. This is actually Sean Trende from the 2000s. He came here through a time machine. The Senate races in 2006 in a Kerry wins 2004 TL!

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea if Civiqs will bear out, but it is interesting that this thing has been steady for a very long time.

https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/1588599108151148544

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

Bennet and Murray have had bigger leads in more polls than Rubio, Budd, and Vance, yet WA and CO are tossups and theirs' aren't. Ridiculous.

[Senator Cris]

New Big Data poll

50-46 D among LV (it was 52-45 two days ago), 40-38 among adults (it was 43-37 two days ago).

https://big-village.com/public-opinion-polling/

[2016]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1588506562749923330?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...
Things have gotten completely out of WHACK for Democrats it seems!

[Senator Cris]

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1588564650538733568/photo/1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Let this remove any doubt that RCP is anything but a right-wing hack firm. This is bordering on Dick Morris levels of bad predictions.

But one of our resident right-wing hacks told me only yesterday that RCP has been the gold standard for decades!

[Mr.Phips]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

North Carolina Lean Republican, but Colorado (!) and Washington state tossups? And New York just Likely Schumer? You RCP guys are clowns.

Colorado and Washington are now tossups based on what?