2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

538 still refusing to remove those wrong YouGov GCB polls

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1550469729726365697

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

[UncleSam]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

What was their prior poll? I typically correct Rasmussen a few points left in my head but this seems like an outlier even considering that.

[wbrocks67]

Last Ras was R+8 last week

[Cyrusman]

538 still refusing to remove those wrong YouGov GCB polls

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1550469729726365697

Is this tweet suggesting those polls are making the average friendlier for democrats?

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 still refusing to remove those wrong YouGov GCB polls

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1550469729726365697

Is this tweet suggesting those polls are making the average friendlier for democrats?

No, he's referring to tweets that have noted the 538 average even WITH the bad YouGov surveys included has moved from R+2.3 to R+0.9 recently.  If the bad polls were removed (which they should be) the average would move somewhat further toward the D's (how much, I have no idea).

[GALeftist]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

I increasingly think that these polls are just straight up fake.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People love to post about the GCB and Rs ahead but we know it's a 303 map the Rs haven't cracked the blue wall since 2016 with Hillary and they won't crack it now the rest is wave insurance like Ryan ahead of Vance

[philly09]

Dave notes the shift.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1550511570358353922

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users keep critiquing polls weren't the polls just wrong about the FRANCHOT winning and Wes Moore but Rs believe the polls

Everything isn't about Approvals or polls it's good to think independent because in 2020 they had Ds netting seats we lost Seats, it's a 303 map anyways with wave insurance

[UncleSam]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

I increasingly think that these polls are just straight up fake.

Something something expanding mind.

Pro tip: all polls are fake. Pollsters know that they won’t get called out on anything other than their final numbers so they basically sh**tpost for months in an effort to help their favored candidates then release real polls the Monday before the election.

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

I increasingly think that these polls are just straight up fake.

Something something expanding mind.

Pro tip: all polls are fake. Pollsters know that they won’t get called out on anything other than their final numbers so they basically sh**tpost for months in an effort to help their favored candidates then release real polls the Monday before the election.

Yeah, no. The bottom line here is that I agree that Ras is likely fake. The only polling organization to afford to do a weekly poll/GCB is YouGov because they have a giant organization. Gallup couldn't even afford to do it daily or weekly. So how does Rasmussen afford to do, what, 2500, every 3 days? Or whatever rolling basis their doing on? Given their ridiculous crosstabs (that are always behind a paywall), I truly believe Ras is actually making them up.

[UncleSam]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

I increasingly think that these polls are just straight up fake.

Something something expanding mind.

Pro tip: all polls are fake. Pollsters know that they won’t get called out on anything other than their final numbers so they basically sh**tpost for months in an effort to help their favored candidates then release real polls the Monday before the election.

Yeah, no. The bottom line here is that I agree that Ras is likely fake. The only polling organization to afford to do a weekly poll/GCB is YouGov because they have a giant organization. Gallup couldn't even afford to do it daily or weekly. So how does Rasmussen afford to do, what, 2500, every 3 days? Or whatever rolling basis their doing on? Given their ridiculous crosstabs (that are always behind a paywall), I truly believe Ras is actually making them up.

Ras polls the same group of people over multiple days, that’s how they do it. Ras is no more fake than any other pollster, and their record has been better than most in recent years. The reason you don’t like them is that their methodology includes an assumption of a ‘shy R’ vote, merely because it has become apparent in recent years that that is in fact a thing that happens.

With that being said, Ras has an R agenda, like most pollsters have an agenda. Trusting any numbers this far out is silly, since most polls are released for political rather than accuracy reasons.

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

I increasingly think that these polls are just straight up fake.

Something something expanding mind.

Pro tip: all polls are fake. Pollsters know that they won’t get called out on anything other than their final numbers so they basically sh**tpost for months in an effort to help their favored candidates then release real polls the Monday before the election.

Yeah, no. The bottom line here is that I agree that Ras is likely fake. The only polling organization to afford to do a weekly poll/GCB is YouGov because they have a giant organization. Gallup couldn't even afford to do it daily or weekly. So how does Rasmussen afford to do, what, 2500, every 3 days? Or whatever rolling basis their doing on? Given their ridiculous crosstabs (that are always behind a paywall), I truly believe Ras is actually making them up.

Ras polls the same group of people over multiple days, that’s how they do it. Ras is no more fake than any other pollster, and their record has been better than most in recent years. The reason you don’t like them is that their methodology includes an assumption of a ‘shy R’ vote, merely because it has become apparent in recent years that that is in fact a thing that happens.

With that being said, Ras has an R agenda, like most pollsters have an agenda. Trusting any numbers this far out is silly, since most polls are released for political rather than accuracy reasons.

this is a joke, right?

They are known as the pollster who would have Trump with 30-40% approval of Black voters. They had the GCB at R+1 in 2018 on election eve. Come on.

And your last point is not even true, since most of the GCB polls we get/have gotten are generally parts of regular trackers/regular polls that are frequent throughout the month/weeks.

[It’s so Joever]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

[Farmlands]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

The generic ballot showed a lead for the Democrats just as Youngkin and other fellow GOP members were romping their way through otherwise blue-ish states. I trust them about as much as Alex Jones atm.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

The generic ballot showed a lead for the Democrats just as Youngkin and other fellow GOP members were romping their way through otherwise blue-ish states. I trust them about as much as Alex Jones atm.

Youngkin ran in 2020?

[Farmlands]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

The generic ballot showed a lead for the Democrats just as Youngkin and other fellow GOP members were romping their way through otherwise blue-ish states. I trust them about as much as Alex Jones atm.

Youngkin ran in 2020?

My point was that 2021 showed a continuation from 2020 of polls consistently overestimating the blue team, especially at the broader national level. So I expect a similar outcome this November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

The generic ballot showed a lead for the Democrats just as Youngkin and other fellow GOP members were romping their way through otherwise blue-ish states. I trust them about as much as Alex Jones atm.

Youngkin ran in 2020?

My point was that 2021 showed a continuation from 2020 of polls consistently overestimating the blue team, especially at the broader national level. So I expect a similar outcome this November.

They were not wrong in Blue states Biden won them they only were wrong in red states it's a 303 map the only flaw in the polls were the MOE and they correctly predicted Ossoff and WARNOCK to win and Traggy had Warnock losing

[Unelectable Bystander]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

The generic ballot showed a lead for the Democrats just as Youngkin and other fellow GOP members were romping their way through otherwise blue-ish states. I trust them about as much as Alex Jones atm.

Youngkin ran in 2020?

My point was that 2021 showed a continuation from 2020 of polls consistently overestimating the blue team, especially at the broader national level. So I expect a similar outcome this November.

I asked this twice for the people on here fully trusting generic ballot and arguing that 2020 doesn’t prove that the underestimation is systematic. Nobody has a good answer for it. The “environment” had to be something like R+8 at that time in order for those results to have happened. You can argue that Virginia and New Jersey had some unique state-specific issues, but it was also all over the country in local elections such as R’s easily winning Jacksonville/Duval and the Long Island races. The generic ballot at the time was literally a D lead

[wbrocks67]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

The generic ballot showed a lead for the Democrats just as Youngkin and other fellow GOP members were romping their way through otherwise blue-ish states. I trust them about as much as Alex Jones atm.

Youngkin ran in 2020?

My point was that 2021 showed a continuation from 2020 of polls consistently overestimating the blue team, especially at the broader national level. So I expect a similar outcome this November.

I asked this twice for the people on here fully trusting generic ballot and arguing that 2020 doesn’t prove that the underestimation is systematic. Nobody has a good answer for it. The “environment” had to be something like R+8 at that time in order for those results to have happened. You can argue that Virginia and New Jersey had some unique state-specific issues, but it was also all over the country in local elections such as R’s easily winning Jacksonville/Duval and the Long Island races. The generic ballot at the time was literally a D lead

You said your own point though - it was state specific. Youngkin won by more than the R did in the PA marquee Supreme Court statewide race.

The national polling average for Biden's approval at the time also lined up perfectly with the exit poll in VA.

Not just that, but you're cherrypicking results. There were also results that same night that were good for Ds as well

[Brittain33]

I asked this twice for the people on here fully trusting generic ballot and arguing that 2020 doesn’t prove that the underestimation is systematic. Nobody has a good answer for it. The “environment” had to be something like R+8 at that time in order for those results to have happened. You can argue that Virginia and New Jersey had some unique state-specific issues, but it was also all over the country in local elections such as R’s easily winning Jacksonville/Duval and the Long Island races. The generic ballot at the time was literally a D lead

You simply can not use state election results to gauge a federal political environment. State candidates can delink themselves from the national party more effectively than senate candidates. Does anyone believe that Dem wins in KY and LA meant that Dem senators would have won those states if elections happened in off years? I don’t think so.

Is there some correlation? Probably. Youngkin doesn’t win in 2017, for example. But you absolutely can’t make an apples to apples comparison to national GCB.

[Mr.Phips]

I asked this twice for the people on here fully trusting generic ballot and arguing that 2020 doesn’t prove that the underestimation is systematic. Nobody has a good answer for it. The “environment” had to be something like R+8 at that time in order for those results to have happened. You can argue that Virginia and New Jersey had some unique state-specific issues, but it was also all over the country in local elections such as R’s easily winning Jacksonville/Duval and the Long Island races. The generic ballot at the time was literally a D lead

You simply can not use state election results to gauge a federal political environment. State candidates can delink themselves from the national party more effectively than senate candidates. Does anyone believe that Dem wins in KY and LA meant that Dem senators would have won those states if elections happened in off years? I don’t think so.

Is there some correlation? Probably. Youngkin doesn’t win in 2017, for example. But you absolutely can’t make an apples to apples comparison to national GCB.

Youngkin wouldn’t have won in 2020 (D+3 year) or even 2016 (R+1 year).

[Brittain33]

Youngkin wouldn’t have won in 2020 (D+3 year) or even 2016 (R+1 year).

We don’t really know especially since Virginia has no history of Governor elections in Presidential years. It’s possible he would have won in 2016 because suburbs still voted R down ballot while Trump was doing badly. Probably not 2020. But we actually just don’t know what the dynamic would be like for governors races in that situation.

You certainly can’t just slap a federal PVI on a state election.

[UncleSam]

I asked this twice for the people on here fully trusting generic ballot and arguing that 2020 doesn’t prove that the underestimation is systematic. Nobody has a good answer for it. The “environment” had to be something like R+8 at that time in order for those results to have happened. You can argue that Virginia and New Jersey had some unique state-specific issues, but it was also all over the country in local elections such as R’s easily winning Jacksonville/Duval and the Long Island races. The generic ballot at the time was literally a D lead

You simply can not use state election results to gauge a federal political environment. State candidates can delink themselves from the national party more effectively than senate candidates. Does anyone believe that Dem wins in KY and LA meant that Dem senators would have won those states if elections happened in off years? I don’t think so.

Is there some correlation? Probably. Youngkin doesn’t win in 2017, for example. But you absolutely can’t make an apples to apples comparison to national GCB.

Youngkin wouldn’t have won in 2020 (D+3 year) or even 2016 (R+1 year).

The point is more that, while that might be true, extrapolating the result of a gubernatorial race to a federal midterm environment is inexact to say the least.