2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Vosem]

This is what Vosem predicts will happen if Dems don't embrace axing social security and Medicare:

I don't think there'll actually be an R+16 year -- just the absurdity heuristic says there won't. I do think it's what the FL early vote telegraphs compared with previous years, though. (More generally, predictions extrapolated from early vote totals this year are ludicrously favorable for the GOP, much more so than polling or even extrapolation from economic numbers. I have no earthly idea why this is, except "turnout shifts" in the absolute vaguest sense of the word).

And, yes, I think the easiest way for Democrats to start performing much better in American elections would be to steal the Republicans' best issues by moving economically rightwards (though probably not all the way to where the GOP is currently). Guns are an odd one, since while I think they're very much on the wrong side of public opinion -- and getting to be more so over time -- Democratic donors are so anti-gun that I'm not sure it'd be wise for the party to move away from that issue, though it should certainly be deemphasized. I think it's really difficult to look at referendum results in the US, or which parties do well when which issues are emphasized, and not reach this conclusion. But that's independent of the result in 2022.

[Ferguson97]

And, yes, I think the easiest way for Democrats to start performing much better in American elections would be to steal the Republicans' best issues by moving economically rightwards

Gretchen, stop trying to make an ACA repeal and social security privatization happen. It’s not going to happen.

[Vosem]

And, yes, I think the easiest way for Democrats to start performing much better in American elections would be to steal the Republicans' best issues by moving economically rightwards

Gretchen, stop trying to make an ACA repeal and social security privatization happen. It’s not going to happen.

Bookmarked; the former especially I think will happen before the end of the decade. (Or at least something sold as Obamacare repeal, even if it's actually just cosmetic). The latter eventually, within our lifetimes.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1584056127129415681?t=-lZibzoVcydFRlV_x6BY...

Absolutely insane, unheard-of stuff.

(Extremely funny that every state's early voting is ludicrously, ludicrously favorable for Republicans, except Georgia is running at about the same level as 2020. The observation that GA has shifted left at every election, including midterms, since 2010 remains valid, but this suggests that it has one of, or the, strongest left-wing trends in the nation. Would be funny if Walker loses on a night when real long-shots like O'Dea and Bolduc actually win.)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1584056127129415681?t=-lZibzoVcydFRlV_x6BY...

Absolutely insane, unheard-of stuff.

(Extremely funny that every state's early voting is ludicrously, ludicrously favorable for Republicans, except Georgia is running at about the same level as 2020. The observation that GA has shifted left at every election, including midterms, since 2010 remains valid, but this suggests that it has one of, or the, strongest left-wing trends in the nation. Would be funny if Walker loses on a night when real long-shots like O'Dea and Bolduc actually win.)

Jon Ralston disagrees  Ralston has essentially said it’s too early and way too small a sample to extrapolate anything from this and that the folks trying to do so are nuts (his word, not mine).  In fact, Ralston even went so far as to say that no one who has any idea what they’re talking about in either party thinks those NV numbers mean much of anything at this point.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/santiagomayer_/status/1584253336735297538

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know R polls are FALLACIOUS they had Beto down 11 and now he is down 3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Those Clark numbers are pretty small and a possible indication Democrats are largely voting by mail and Republicans are on election day.

Although small turnout is to be expected after those winds that cancelled the When We Were Young Festival.

[Ferguson97]

And, yes, I think the easiest way for Democrats to start performing much better in American elections would be to steal the Republicans' best issues by moving economically rightwards

Gretchen, stop trying to make an ACA repeal and social security privatization happen. It’s not going to happen.

Bookmarked; the former especially I think will happen before the end of the decade. (Or at least something sold as Obamacare repeal, even if it's actually just cosmetic). The latter eventually, within our lifetimes.

You are completely nuts for thinking this, and you are without a doubt one of the most out-of-touch people I've ever seen on Atlas.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1584056127129415681?t=-lZibzoVcydFRlV_x6BY...

Absolutely insane, unheard-of stuff.

(Extremely funny that every state's early voting is ludicrously, ludicrously favorable for Republicans, except Georgia is running at about the same level as 2020. The observation that GA has shifted left at every election, including midterms, since 2010 remains valid, but this suggests that it has one of, or the, strongest left-wing trends in the nation. Would be funny if Walker loses on a night when real long-shots like O'Dea and Bolduc actually win.)

You do realize that Republicans won the early in person vote in Clark in 2020, right?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/santiagomayer_/status/1584253336735297538

This is essentially what a lot of the difference is in many of the polls. Youth turnout is questionable, so it's been all over the place with a lot of polls expecting that it will be even worse than 2014.

I also have to question any poll that has 18-34 year olds within 10% for the GOP (NYT/Siena LV model I'm looking at you)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

And, yes, I think the easiest way for Democrats to start performing much better in American elections would be to steal the Republicans' best issues by moving economically rightwards

Gretchen, stop trying to make an ACA repeal and social security privatization happen. It’s not going to happen.

Bookmarked; the former especially I think will happen before the end of the decade. (Or at least something sold as Obamacare repeal, even if it's actually just cosmetic). The latter eventually, within our lifetimes.

You are completely nuts for thinking this, and you are without a doubt one of the most out-of-touch people I've ever seen on Atlas.

Vosem makes me look like Che Guevara.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/santiagomayer_/status/1584253336735297538

My personal prediction is on college campuses and amongst college graduates youth turnout will be really solid as we’ve seen in some of the recent special elections. However, young voters on a larger scale maybe not so much.

Hard to say exactly who that favors though since non-college young voters are split more even and probably have huge variations across the country.

This may be anecdotal on my part, but I go to a pretty high performing public high school you have to test in to. There is def *more* political engagement amongst people at my school (why by and large can’t yet vote) than there was 4 years ago and almost everyone in my class will be very reliable voters as soon as they are eligible. Another thing I will note is girls generally seem more politically active or at least extroverted than boys at my school and I think that’s for a variety of reasons.

[Vosem]

And, yes, I think the easiest way for Democrats to start performing much better in American elections would be to steal the Republicans' best issues by moving economically rightwards

Gretchen, stop trying to make an ACA repeal and social security privatization happen. It’s not going to happen.

Bookmarked; the former especially I think will happen before the end of the decade. (Or at least something sold as Obamacare repeal, even if it's actually just cosmetic). The latter eventually, within our lifetimes.

You are completely nuts for thinking this, and you are without a doubt one of the most out-of-touch people I've ever seen on Atlas.

"Out-of-touch" is such a strange insult; in general (people from this forum have met in me in real life!) I'm an extremely extroverted person, I have a social group that transcends class and race boundaries, and I speak and read the news in multiple languages; I think I must be significantly more exposed to different points of view and walks of life than the typical Atlas poster, especially since people here tend to be quite a bit younger. (At the same time, there are lots of traits -- and not just political ones -- where my close friends are, statistically speaking, enormous outliers from typical American society).

Most of my observations about "what the parties should do" comes from observing campaigns rather than from interactions with my social groups, since those are by definition not representative. My guess is that you have few close friends that don't share your political views^*, but you insist on seeing yourself as 'in touch' with society because it is a core tenet of most forms of American left-wing thought that a majority of society agrees with them. This is just not reconcilable with how politics in this country happens. Again -- as hard as it is to believe -- both parties are roughly equidistant from the median voter; they are equally 'extreme'. (In fact we have every reason to think that in two weeks Americans will report that they are slightly closer to the Republicans; a Democratic GCB would at this point be a substantial upset. Over the long run these things will cancel out, though). Until you see this it is strange of you to suggest that someone else is out-of-touch.

(My conclusion here is that -- besides meeting people different from yourself, which many people find unpleasant and would be a lot of effort anyway -- you should read Jonathan Haidt, who has a very interesting treatment of this subject).

^{*I am not calling you out; this is substantially also true for me.}

[Devils30]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/midterm-elections-cook-sean-patrick-maloney

NY-17 moving to tossup in Cook. This could either be a sign of a wave or the NRCC version of Hillary visits Ohio 7 times and never goes to Wisconsin.

[TwinGeeks99]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/midterm-elections-cook-sean-patrick-maloney

NY-17 moving to tossup in Cook. This could either be a sign of a wave or the NRCC version of Hillary visits Ohio 7 times and never goes to Wisconsin.

He moved this race but not Pat Ryan's race? I think the two races are highly correlated; if Maloney is losing, Ryan is also losing.

[Person Man]

There are some polls out today showing that the race is stabilizing but maybe Democrats are continuing to collapse or will make up some lost ground.

[Devils30]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/midterm-elections-cook-sean-patrick-maloney

NY-17 moving to tossup in Cook. This could either be a sign of a wave or the NRCC version of Hillary visits Ohio 7 times and never goes to Wisconsin.

He moved this race but not Pat Ryan's race? I think the two races are highly correlated; if Maloney is losing, Ryan is also losing.

How do the Dems win NY-18, NY-19 (no reason to think Molinaro should take a district 3% more Dem with Ithaca) and lose NY-17? Could polls be missing some of the Dems margin with college whites?

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/midterm-elections-cook-sean-patrick-maloney

NY-17 moving to tossup in Cook. This could either be a sign of a wave or the NRCC version of Hillary visits Ohio 7 times and never goes to Wisconsin.

The NRCC is so sneaky. They even convinced the democrats to start triaging democrat won or Biden won seats in Wisconsin, Arizona, Oregon, and California.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/midterm-elections-cook-sean-patrick-maloney

NY-17 moving to tossup in Cook. This could either be a sign of a wave or the NRCC version of Hillary visits Ohio 7 times and never goes to Wisconsin.

The NRCC is so sneaky. They even convinced the democrats to start triaging democrat won or Biden won seats in Wisconsin, Arizona, Oregon, and California.

Biden didn't win WI-03 lol

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/midterm-elections-cook-sean-patrick-maloney

NY-17 moving to tossup in Cook. This could either be a sign of a wave or the NRCC version of Hillary visits Ohio 7 times and never goes to Wisconsin.

The NRCC is so sneaky. They even convinced the democrats to start triaging democrat won or Biden won seats in Wisconsin, Arizona, Oregon, and California.

Biden didn't win WI-03 lol

I said democrat or Biden, as in Ron Kind. Also not the point. Democrats are playing defense trying to win 50% +1. That’s not the NRCC, it’s their own strategy. There’s no conspiracy

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/24/midterm-elections-cook-sean-patrick-maloney

NY-17 moving to tossup in Cook. This could either be a sign of a wave or the NRCC version of Hillary visits Ohio 7 times and never goes to Wisconsin.

The NRCC is so sneaky. They even convinced the democrats to start triaging democrat won or Biden won seats in Wisconsin, Arizona, Oregon, and California.

Biden didn't win WI-03 lol

I said democrat or Biden, as in Ron Kind. Also not the point. Democrats are playing defense trying to win 50% +1. That’s not the NRCC, it’s their own strategy. There’s no conspiracy

There was no way D's were holding WI-03 without Kind; it would have been tough even *with* him.  No need to throw money away on it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bresreports/status/1584609485372686338

[wbrocks67]

Sounds about right. You can't let $6M+ of outside GOP spending just go unanswered, no matter what district you're in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot these polls are tracking polls they aren't doing real polls the last two weeks in the campaign because last week we got the same polls in TX and FL DeSantis and Abbott plus 10 and Johnson and Vance and Laxalt narrowly ahead and Fetterman, Shapiro, Whitmer, Warnick, Kelly and Evers ahead and users get so excited over the same tracking polls, that's why TRAFALGAR having Whitmer narrowly ahead and Jensen tied were only tracking polls Ds are still favored

A 1 or 2 pt leads isn't good enough for Rs especially in blue states OR and WI due to Early voting Barnes and Kotek are gonna win  and do will Sisolak and CCM

Molinaro 8 pts leads didn't hold up in blue states NY