2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Spending totals (candidate + outside spending) for the last 2 weeks.

Dems have advantage everywhere except OH and NC. About equal in WI.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1584522931606286336

[Devils30]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/dccc-appears-to-be-bailing-on-malinowski/

Not sure if this means anything. Malinowski is completely self sufficient as a fundraiser and has like 3 million COH.

[wbrocks67]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/dccc-appears-to-be-bailing-on-malinowski/

Not sure if this means anything. Malinowski is completely self sufficient as a fundraiser and has like 3 million COH.

Yeah, I don't think you can extrapolate that "DCCC is abandoning him" when they never reserved any air time to begin with. House Majority PAC has put some money into it, and Malinowski raised $8M thru September, so they probably figure he has enough money on his own.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, Morning Consult's midterm tracker unchanged from last week - again. D+3, 48-45 on GCB. This thing has been rock steady since they put in their LV model in August.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[bilaps]

And it's gonna be rock steady wrong

[Unelectable Bystander]

And it's gonna be rock steady wrong

It should be noted that this poll didn’t move the needle at all in 538, which probably speaks to the fact that 538 has a decent rightward adjustment for their polls.

538 also has an interesting piece on the GCB. For all of the 2014 repeat enthusiasts, they pointed out that the GCB is currently what it was at this time that year. It then spiked towards republicans in the last two weeks. They pointed out that this is normal and the president’s party tends to lose 1.2 points of GCB on average in the final two weeks.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs also pretty steady, showing what MC is showing. D+3, 49-46

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873?t=AeCveOKoqUBBCYjcuPd...

Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873?t=AeCveOKoqUBBCYjcuPd...

Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

Tbf Smith is an atrocious candidate and Garcia quite strong. It boggles my mind how she won the nomination three times in a row, is the Dem bench in Antelope Valley really that weak?

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873?t=AeCveOKoqUBBCYjcuPd...

Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

The primary vote here was literally even and usually gets more blue in the fall. I wonder if some of 2010-2018's polling misses in Sunbelt Latino heavy areas will return even if GOP as I expect wins the Ohio races by 5% more than polls indicate.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873?t=AeCveOKoqUBBCYjcuPd...
Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

Tbf Smith is an atrocious candidate and Garcia quite strong. It boggles my mind how she won the nomination three times in a row, is the Dem bench in Antelope Valley really that weak?

The district got a few points bluer in redistricting compared to 2020.. Simi valley removed.. Garcia literally voting like he's in Alabama.

Yet they're triaging ? lol.

Doesn't suggest confidence to me.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I'm not sure exactly how you would square that with both the primary results (pre-Roe) and the early vote so far in the district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

[MT Treasurer]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

no

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yeah, I'm not sure exactly how you would square that with both the primary results (pre-Roe) and the early vote so far in the district.

What early voting? The GOP is far ahead in this district compared to 2020

[Devils30]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

no

Malinowski and Smith are both in very expensive media markets are do have plenty of COH. At least one of these races people think is over will go the other way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

By now it's a 303 map and we can still wind up with 53/46/1 D Senate and 225/210 RH, but Barnes, Fetterman are Sen Elect and Shapiro, Wes Moore and Healey are Gov elect

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

no

I threw it out as a serious possibility and I stand by that. Of course, neither you nor I are inside the Democrats' campaign structure and seeing their unpublished internals, which would provide the answer for this...

[Unelectable Bystander]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

no

Reports came out last week that NRCC also increasingly thinks Garcia is fine.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

Yes, I forgot..

Even when PAC's go dark in double digit Biden R districts, it's ultimately good news for dems.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873

Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

Looking at individual districts to try and paint a narrative is silly.

Peltola is very likely to win Alaska at-large again. Does that mean we're clearly not in an R+3 or more environment?

[wbrocks67]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

Yes, I forgot..

Even when PAC's go dark in double digit Biden R districts, it's ultimately good news for dems.

I mean, the primary results were essentially the same as the 2020 result, so Garcia suddenly surging here would be surprising.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Maybe they're trying to be clever by claiming it's because he's allegedly strong, when they have internals showing him actually losing and in fact Smith doesn't need the money.

Yes, I forgot..

Even when PAC's go dark in double digit Biden R districts, it's ultimately good news for dems.

I haven't been following that race as closely as you, but given how the lines have changed, it certainly feels possible Garcia is still enough of an underdog that the money these ads would have cost ultimately were cut (presumably to be spent elsewhere). It's not necessarily clear this is a triage. I'm not saying Garcia is doomed either, btw.
It's not necessarily good to pre-suppose that Garcia is just winning just because ad buys are cut.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1584954542202191873

Clearly a sign of a D+3 environment.

Looking at individual districts to try and paint a narrative is silly.

Peltola is very likely to win Alaska at-large again. Does that mean we're clearly not in an R+3 or more environment?

Alaska is quite a unique case in that Murk, Palin and various wings of the Alaskan Republican Party are literally endorsing Peltola.. plus there's RCV.

As I'm sure you know.

[Devils30]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ca25-3.html

Polls have missed here before...the 25th is the old version of the 27th.