PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[jd7171]

I figure I would offer my two cents on what's going on here in Cambria and Indiana counties. Many pundits feel that Fetterman will do better with WWC voters here. So far, I can say that I have no clue what will happen in Cambria. Maybe he will do a point or two better at most. Nobody really has any yard signs up. I work in Johnstown and Fetterman does have support here as far as signs go but there probably not even 10 signs total between the two of them. When he was here last week 300 people showed up, which surprised me. I feel more confident about an overperformance in Indiana county mostly because of visible signs. There are more Fetterman signs than there were ever Biden signs in 2020, in Indiana borough.  Oz still lags Mastriano in signs and it's not close in both counties, for a long time there were no signs. On an interesting note, I went to high school with Oz's campaign manager. He was a year behind me.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Shapiro-Oz voter found!

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1582749238877835266

She even looks like she eats crayons

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1582754897639837696

Those cholesterol numbers are amazing.

[wbrocks67]

I figure I would offer my two cents on what's going on here in Cambria and Indiana counties. Many pundits feel that Fetterman will do better with WWC voters here. So far, I can say that I have no clue what will happen in Cambria. Maybe he will do a point or two better at most. Nobody really has any yard signs up. I work in Johnstown and Fetterman does have support here as far as signs go but there probably not even 10 signs total between the two of them. When he was here last week 300 people showed up, which surprised me. I feel more confident about an overperformance in Indiana county mostly because of visible signs. There are more Fetterman signs than there were ever Biden signs in 2020, in Indiana borough.  Oz still lags Mastriano in signs and it's not close in both counties, for a long time there were no signs. On an interesting note, I went to high school with Oz's campaign manager. He was a year behind me.

Thanks for this. It's hard not to get optimistic about Fetterman's chances in these more red areas, especially given the enthusiasm that he seems to bring. From what I can tell, is Oz even doing anything in these areas?

I think there is definitely a case to be made right now regarding both - Fetterman seems to be taking Philly for granted a bit (still unhappy that there's only been 1 event here in the last month+), but Oz at the same time seems to be taking the red areas for granted too - assuming that just because they went for Trump by blood red margins that they'll turnout for him too. Which is certainly possible, but at the same time, you don't even have a GOP Governor campaign trying to GOTV for you at the same time. Oz has seemingly made more a concerted effort to peel away voters with these one-off events in Philly and other suburban counties.

At least on the signs front, it seems like Fetterman has enthusiasm in both red and blue counties. (signs don't vote, i know), but interesting that Oz seems to lack enthusiasm in signs in both red and blue counties on the opposite end.

[Person Man]

I figure I would offer my two cents on what's going on here in Cambria and Indiana counties. Many pundits feel that Fetterman will do better with WWC voters here. So far, I can say that I have no clue what will happen in Cambria. Maybe he will do a point or two better at most. Nobody really has any yard signs up. I work in Johnstown and Fetterman does have support here as far as signs go but there probably not even 10 signs total between the two of them. When he was here last week 300 people showed up, which surprised me. I feel more confident about an overperformance in Indiana county mostly because of visible signs. There are more Fetterman signs than there were ever Biden signs in 2020, in Indiana borough.  Oz still lags Mastriano in signs and it's not close in both counties, for a long time there were no signs. On an interesting note, I went to high school with Oz's campaign manager. He was a year behind me.

Thanks for this. It's hard not to get optimistic about Fetterman's chances in these more red areas, especially given the enthusiasm that he seems to bring. From what I can tell, is Oz even doing anything in these areas?

I think there is definitely a case to be made right now regarding both - Fetterman seems to be taking Philly for granted a bit (still unhappy that there's only been 1 event here in the last month+), but Oz at the same time seems to be taking the red areas for granted too - assuming that just because they went for Trump by blood red margins that they'll turnout for him too. Which is certainly possible, but at the same time, you don't even have a GOP Governor campaign trying to GOTV for you at the same time. Oz has seemingly made more a concerted effort to peel away voters with these one-off events in Philly and other suburban counties.

At least on the signs front, it seems like Fetterman has enthusiasm in both red and blue counties. (signs don't vote, i know), but interesting that Oz seems to lack enthusiasm in signs in both red and blue counties on the opposite end.

Fetterman does feel like an incumbent trying to battle off a “anybody but Fetterman” campaign.

[Bojack Horseman]

Shapiro-Oz voter found!

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1582749238877835266

She even looks like she eats crayons

She reminds me of the pussy hat wearing #Resistence fighter who the Detroit Free Press interviewed at a John James rally two years ago "because he sounds like he's preaching when he talks!"

[BenjiG98]

Shapiro-Oz voter found!

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1582749238877835266

Funny enough they found her in 2018 too:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1582927095079895042?s=20&t=TRLIWfpTz0b...

[wbrocks67]

What are the odds that they found her twice to interview? lol

Though if the good sis was open to hearing what Trump was about in 2016, then her being open to Oz now is not unsurprising.

[wbrocks67]

Incredibly damning for Oz - an actual drug counselor sat with him on a panel - and the way he handled the panel actually persuaded him *away* from Oz

https://twitter.com/abcnewsstudios/status/1583104882210242562

[kwabbit]

Sarah Gibson appears to be a Trump/Toomey/Wolf/Casey/Biden/Shapiro/Oz voter.

Hilarious coincidence that she was found twice. As ridiculous as she seems, she’s the type of voter who decides our elections.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Sarah Gibson appears to be a Trump/Toomey/Wolf/Casey/Biden/Shapiro/Oz voter.

Hilarious coincidence that she was found twice. As ridiculous as she seems, she’s the type of voter who decides our elections.

It's like a much lamer version of that Nat Geo girl with the amazing eyes. 

[Pollster]

Rumor making the rounds (I haven't been able to confirm yet) is that there's a poll showing the PA-12 race within the margin of error, apparently due to both Summer Lee's vulnerabilities and confusion about incumbent Mike Doyle/Republican candidate Mike Doyle. The top of the ticket races are said to be closer to baseline partisanship/in line with expectations so it seems to be unique to the weird factors at hand in the Congressional race.

[xavier110]

Shapiro-Oz voter found!

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1582749238877835266

These are the people who make me think we could get Kelly/Hobbs (maybe)/Finchem/Hamadeh, lol

[It’s so Joever]

We are here to see the Senator, the Despicable Senator Oz!

[kwabbit]

Rumor making the rounds (I haven't been able to confirm yet) is that there's a poll showing the PA-12 race within the margin of error, apparently due to both Summer Lee's vulnerabilities and confusion about incumbent Mike Doyle/Republican candidate Mike Doyle. The top of the ticket races are said to be closer to baseline partisanship/in line with expectations so it seems to be unique to the weird factors at hand in the Congressional race.

You should also post this in the thread I made about that issue. It sounds so ridiculous and people were quick to dismiss, but the Mike Doyles are having an effect.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Rumor making the rounds (I haven't been able to confirm yet) is that there's a poll showing the PA-12 race within the margin of error, apparently due to both Summer Lee's vulnerabilities and confusion about incumbent Mike Doyle/Republican candidate Mike Doyle. The top of the ticket races are said to be closer to baseline partisanship/in line with expectations so it seems to be unique to the weird factors at hand in the Congressional race.

You should also post this in the thread I made about that issue. It sounds so ridiculous and people were quick to dismiss, but the Mike Doyles are having an effect.

Getting Mike Doyle'd has a nice ring to it. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

BREAKING: Fetterman actually owns a suit and tie!

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1583137887163322376

[Aurelius]

Rumor making the rounds (I haven't been able to confirm yet) is that there's a poll showing the PA-12 race within the margin of error, apparently due to both Summer Lee's vulnerabilities and confusion about incumbent Mike Doyle/Republican candidate Mike Doyle. The top of the ticket races are said to be closer to baseline partisanship/in line with expectations so it seems to be unique to the weird factors at hand in the Congressional race.

If true, I called it!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1583157752939319296?s=20&t=qGXA6mndVDJ...
Who told Fetterman it would be a good idea to campaign with a deeply unpopular President?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1583157752939319296?s=20&t=qGXA6mndVDJ...
Who told Fetterman it would be a good idea to campaign with a deeply unpopular President?

Seemed to work out pretty well for Trump-backed candidates

(Well, sometimes anyway)

[Kamala's side hoe]

Incredibly damning for Oz - an actual drug counselor sat with him on a panel - and the way he handled the panel actually persuaded him *away* from Oz

https://twitter.com/abcnewsstudios/status/1583104882210242562

Sounds like Dr. Öz really pulled a Drumpf on the counselor

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was looking through election results on DRA and one race that stood out to me was the 2020 Auditor General Election which was pretty remarkably polarized despite being a relatively low-profile race. The Republican ultimately won the race by about 3 points.

What stoof out to me specifically was in that race, the Republican actually outperformed Trump in rural PA which so far has been quite unusual given that there really didn't seem to be any particularly weird dynamics in this race.

The reason I bring this up is because I kinda always assumed win or lose, Fetterman would probably do better than Biden in significant swaths of rural PA but now that I found another example, I am taking that as less of a given.

Does anyone know if there were specific circumstances that allowed the Republican to do this? Would Oz have the ability to outperform Trump in places like Luzurne and Cambria Counties?

[If my soul was made of stone]

I was looking through election results on DRA and one race that stood out to me was the 2020 Auditor General Election which was pretty remarkably polarized despite being a relatively low-profile race. The Republican ultimately won the race by about 3 points.

What stoof out to me specifically was in that race, the Republican actually outperformed Trump in rural PA which so far has been quite unusual given that there really didn't seem to be any particularly weird dynamics in this race.

The reason I bring this up is because I kinda always assumed win or lose, Fetterman would probably do better than Biden in significant swaths of rural PA but now that I found another example, I am taking that as less of a given.

Does anyone know if there were specific circumstances that allowed the Republican to do this? Would Oz have the ability to outperform Trump in places like Luzurne and Cambria Counties?

Cambria and Luzerne are or are in small metros, not predominantly rural. Ahmad underperformed Biden across the board with a few very strange exceptions (Lackawanna; so much for Scranton Joe), but clearly underperformed the most in suburbs both of the two P blobs and the aforementioned smaller metros (see also Harrisburg, Reading, etc). Sadly it seems that the sort of suburban above-it-alls stuck in an ancient conception of partisanship who see themselves as Heroes of Bipartisanship by checking random boxes for the GOP downballot were in full force here, which may have been compounded by "identity issues" (read: bigoted suburban resentment) surrounding Ahmad above policy concerns given that Joe Torsella did better on the same ballot but still lost re-election.

Pat Toomey tended to underperform in the small metros and actual rural areas but overperform among that demographic in genteel P blob land, but with Oz' particular weaknesses and the Fetterman campaign's strength in attacking him from every angle for everyone I think it'll be a wash as far as the numbers are concerned.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1583157752939319296?s=20&t=qGXA6mndVDJ...
Who told Fetterman it would be a good idea to campaign with a deeply unpopular President?

don't y'all ever get tired of trying to find every little mix-up or mistake? are you a perfect human being who says everything perfectly? it's just sad at this point.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1583157752939319296?s=20&t=qGXA6mndVDJ...
Who told Fetterman it would be a good idea to campaign with a deeply unpopular President?

don't y'all ever get tired of trying to find every little mix-up or mistake? are you a perfect human being who says everything perfectly? it's just sad at this point.

Tbf I felt like the media did this with Trump to an excessive degree.  Yes, he said Revolutionary War airport, yes it sounded dumb, no it wasn't worth a front page spread on CNN's website.