PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Eraserhead]

We ever gonna get a new poll?

[wbrocks67]

We ever gonna get a new poll?

Muhlenberg is definitely overdue, while Susquehanna said we'll get one in the next few weeks, which is funny bc the election is 3 weeks away lol.

Could see a Fox one if they do another round of state polling this week.

Fabrizio/Anzalone also wildly overdue; at this point even CBS/YouGov and Marist are overdue, because I believe those were over a month ago too

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/pkcapitol/status/1582450395842248706

[kwabbit]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/18/oz-fetterman-pennsylvania-senate-00062330

Fetterman 48 Oz 46 according to Fabrizio/Impact, shared exclusively with Politico. I don’t know if there’s going to be an official release.

The last iteration of the poll had Fetterman up six in June, but it’s hard to contextualize that since it was pre-Dobbs and before there was enough polling to get a sense of the race.

[Sestak]

I don’t really trust the febreze poll - in theory Fetterman has been holding this 2 point lead and around 47-48 in the more R-leaning polls; but I also kind of feel like this could be a “hide behind Trafalgar” type thing here. Would like to see more (ideally from the outlets that have been polling this race.

[kwabbit]

I don’t really trust the febreze poll - in theory Fetterman has been holding this 2 point lead and around 47-48 in the more R-leaning polls; but I also kind of feel like this could be a “hide behind Trafalgar” type thing here. Would like to see more (ideally from the outlets that have been polling this race.

Fabrizio on its own is R affiliated, Fabrizio/Impact is a joint effort with Impact, which is D affliated. They have been coming in right around the polling average this cycle, with Kelly +8 in Early September , Warnock +3 in July, Masto +1 in late August.

[Sestak]

I don’t really trust the febreze poll - in theory Fetterman has been holding this 2 point lead and around 47-48 in the more R-leaning polls; but I also kind of feel like this could be a “hide behind Trafalgar” type thing here. Would like to see more (ideally from the outlets that have been polling this race.

Fabrizio on its own is R affiliated, Fabrizio/Impact is a joint effort with Impact, which is D affliated. They have been coming in right around the polling average this cycle, with Kelly +8 in Early September , Warnock +3 in July, Masto +1 in late August.

Does this combined effort have much of a track record, though? Those results all seem plausible but then being consistently in the center of the polling average could mean that they’re just a very average poll or it could mean they herd fairly actively. The lack of consistent pollling on any single race also means we get less information from them bc no movement.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I disagree, I actually want to see fewer polls so that I don't have to have a creeping fear that Dr. f--king Oz might be my Senator.

[kwabbit]

I don’t really trust the febreze poll - in theory Fetterman has been holding this 2 point lead and around 47-48 in the more R-leaning polls; but I also kind of feel like this could be a “hide behind Trafalgar” type thing here. Would like to see more (ideally from the outlets that have been polling this race.

Fabrizio on its own is R affiliated, Fabrizio/Impact is a joint effort with Impact, which is D affliated. They have been coming in right around the polling average this cycle, with Kelly +8 in Early September , Warnock +3 in July, Masto +1 in late August.

Does this combined effort have much of a track record, though? Those results all seem plausible but then being consistently in the center of the polling average could mean that they’re just a very average poll or it could mean they herd fairly actively. The lack of consistent pollling on any single race also means we get less information from them bc no movement.

This poll does deviate from the average by a few points. It’s the best datapoint of a tossup race in a while. Considering it’s two pollsters with a decent track record themselves, they should be a good team. Most R/D pollster projects are better than either of them individually. See Fox and Beacon/Shaw.

[EJ24]

Fetterman has collapsed and he is going to lose this race to an absolute clown. I tried warning everyone last year that Conor Lamb was the better and more experienced candidate in the general but everybody wanted to do the progressive purity test crap again and listen to hacks like Kyle Kulinski and Jacobin. Great going guys. It's going to cost us yet another seat and possibly the senate.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Fetterman has collapsed and he is going to lose this race to an absolute clown. I tried warning everyone last year that Conor Lamb was the better and more experienced candidate in the general but everybody wanted to do the progressive purity test crap again and listen to hacks like Kyle Kulinski and Jacobin. Great going guys. It's going to cost us yet another seat and possibly the senate.

I wouldn't go that far, but I think Lamb was the better choice. But hey, Dem voters went overwhelmingly with Fetterman, so what do I know?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Fetterman has collapsed and he is going to lose this race to an absolute clown. I tried warning everyone last year that Conor Lamb was the better and more experienced candidate in the general but everybody wanted to do the progressive purity test crap again and listen to hacks like Kyle Kulinski and Jacobin. Great going guys. It's going to cost us yet another seat and possibly the senate.

We did nothing of the sort. Republicans like you who would gladly vote for Oz over Fetterman, and constantly undermined the Democratic nominee, did that.

I wouldn't go that far, but I think Lamb was the better choice. But hey, Dem voters went overwhelmingly with Fetterman, so what do I know?

Please tell me how the clown almost entirely funded by Big Pharma, who endorsed mask mandates six months ago, was going to win an election.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

This is the difference between the center and us. When we progressives lose a primary, we get in line and support the Democrat for the greater good. I vehemently disagree with this course of action, but I'm a clear minority.

When the center loses a primary, the centrists throw a six-month temper tantrum about how their candidate was the better candidate and how bland centrism would have won. They undermine the Democratic nominee, they call for the overturning of the primary, and they do everything they can to weaken the progressive. Sometimes, they even run a spoiler campaign!

People like EJ24 see Fetterman as greater threats than Oz or Trump - Fetterman is one of the few voices that can steer this party away from the corporate cronyism that enriches its establishment. They'll do anything to keep us out of power - even if it means electing Trump, Oz, or DeSantis.

[wbrocks67]

IMO, I like Lamb a lot and I supported him initially but he was not the better option. Fetterman ultimately was, because Fetterman also sparks enthusiasm from a wide swath of people. Lamb inspires nobody.

Fetterman may be easier to attack in certain areas, but Lamb would not have gotten young voters' attention and would've just been seen as a generic D. Fetterman has much more personality, and drives a lot more hard support IMO.

Not just that, but Fetterman's team and his social media have been a strong source of getting attention and I don't think Lamb or his team would've been at that level (but not a bad thing, I don't think most campaign's team would be)

[Oppo]

Fetterman has collapsed and he is going to lose this race to an absolute clown. I tried warning everyone last year that Conor Lamb was the better and more experienced candidate in the general but everybody wanted to do the progressive purity test crap again and listen to hacks like Kyle Kulinski and Jacobin. Great going guys. It's going to cost us yet another seat and possibly the senate.

How does Jacobin magazine have enough influence to give Fetterman a 67/67 county victory

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Fetterman has collapsed and he is going to lose this race to an absolute clown. I tried warning everyone last year that Conor Lamb was the better and more experienced candidate in the general but everybody wanted to do the progressive purity test crap again and listen to hacks like Kyle Kulinski and Jacobin. Great going guys. It's going to cost us yet another seat and possibly the senate.

How does Jacobin magazine have enough influence to give Fetterman a 67/67 county victory

Don't forget radical socialist Gary Peters.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is besides the point but if Mastriano has declined so much that Republicans are boosting him in order to attack Fetterman that has to be one of the worst campaigns of all time.

[wbrocks67]

This is besides the point but if Mastriano has declined so much that Republicans are boosting him in order to attack Fetterman that has to be one of the worst campaigns of all time.

It's also certainly underrated that the Democrats have two statewide candidates who are pushing a GOTV. Republicans now apparently only have one.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

When the center loses a primary, the centrists throw a six-month temper tantrum about how their candidate was the better candidate and how bland centrism would have won. They undermine the Democratic nominee, they call for the overturning of the primary, and they do everything they can to weaken the progressive. Sometimes, they even run a spoiler campaign!

Do you have to give this overdramatic speech every time a single Atlas user says that Lamb might have done better? EJ24's post was silly, but the vast majority of "the centrists" are still completely behind Fetterman. This is his worst poll in ages and he's still up 2 and has 86% support from the party. If he does lose (which I neither want nor expect to happen!), it won't be because centrists abandoned him.

[Continential]

Fetterman has collapsed and he is going to lose this race to an absolute clown. I tried warning everyone last year that Conor Lamb was the better and more experienced candidate in the general but everybody wanted to do the progressive purity test crap again and listen to hacks like Kyle Kulinski and Jacobin. Great going guys. It's going to cost us yet another seat and possibly the senate.

Today I learned that the average Pennsylvania Democrat is a Bernie bro.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok so a few thoughts on recent polling developments:

1. Not only has the race tightened, but Fetterman has genuinely lost a bit of ground in the % he's been polling at in the average. A month ago he was above 50% but now he's down to 48.

2. There have been a relative lack of polls, specifically high-quality polls in this race right now. With that being said, this slight movement towards Oz seems grounded enough but polls could def be over or underestimating it.

3. Fetterman is still leading in the polling average by over 5%. Def not insurmountable, especially given history, but also not bad. Oz is still polling at a mere 43% and polls reallyh need to get better about pushing undecides. I think most people here would agree a 10%+ Fetterman win was never in the cards and probably not a sustainable polling lead either.

4. It seems like this shift leveled out a week or two ago according to 538, people are just reacting to it now. At the start of October, the 538 polling average for this race was basically identical to how it is today.

[kwabbit]

Ok so a few thoughts on recent polling developments:

1. Not only has the race tightened, but Fetterman has genuinely lost a bit of ground in the % he's been polling at in the average. A month ago he was above 50% but now he's down to 48.

2. There have been a relative lack of polls, specifically high-quality polls in this race right now. With that being said, this slight movement towards Oz seems grounded enough but polls could def be over or underestimating it.

3. Fetterman is still leading in the polling average by over 5%. Def not insurmountable, especially given history, but also not bad. Oz is still polling at a mere 43% and polls reallyh need to get better about pushing undecides. I think most people here would agree a 10%+ Fetterman win was never in the cards and probably not a sustainable polling lead either.

4. It seems like this shift leveled out a week or two ago according to 538, people are just reacting to it now. At the start of October, the 538 polling average for this race was basically identical to how it is today.

We’ve gotten like two polls conducted in October. 538’s averages are designed to be stubborn based off of a few polls. If we got another poll showing a similar result, the average will adjust fairly sharply. We really don’t know where the race stands until we get a few more data points.

[bagelman]

Lamb would actually be trailing in polls earlier this month and the race would increasingly be seen as Lean R similar to NV if not stronger.

Dr. Oz is everything wrong with American society. Everything wrong with American culture. He embodies our dark side, a slimeball with a medical degree and a smile. I would rather have Josh Mandel as my senator then allow this man in congress.

I HAVE NOT SEEN A SINGLE POLL WITH FETTERMAN WITH A MAJORITY. I CAN SEE IT NOW, UNDECIDEDS BREAKING GOP YET AGAIN. The attack ads regarding the puppies are going to be dismissed as "negative attack ads" by the Peter Griffins of the state, who will then cower under their beds upon hearing how Fetterman freed men accused of murder!!1 (proven innocent by evidence)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ok so a few thoughts on recent polling developments:

1. Not only has the race tightened, but Fetterman has genuinely lost a bit of ground in the % he's been polling at in the average. A month ago he was above 50% but now he's down to 48.

2. There have been a relative lack of polls, specifically high-quality polls in this race right now. With that being said, this slight movement towards Oz seems grounded enough but polls could def be over or underestimating it.

3. Fetterman is still leading in the polling average by over 5%. Def not insurmountable, especially given history, but also not bad. Oz is still polling at a mere 43% and polls reallyh need to get better about pushing undecides. I think most people here would agree a 10%+ Fetterman win was never in the cards and probably not a sustainable polling lead either.

4. It seems like this shift leveled out a week or two ago according to 538, people are just reacting to it now. At the start of October, the 538 polling average for this race was basically identical to how it is today.

We’ve gotten like two polls conducted in October. 538’s averages are designed to be stubborn based off of a few polls. If we got another poll showing a similar result, the average will adjust fairly sharply. We really don’t know where the race stands until we get a few more data points.

Oh damn now that I've checked yeah we've only gotten 2, one of which is Trafalgar and the other of which is unrated. I knew there was a lag in polling here but I didn't realize it was that bad.

It seems like since mid-September, the Fetterman nut + 10 polls really haven't happened at all so perhaps that could explain it a bit too. There aren't really recent outliers to pull the average up, everything has been remarkably close to Fetterman + 5ish.

[wbrocks67]

I think the key point here is that Fetterman has oscillated between 47-50 in the average. He's gotten the bigger range, getting 45's but also 47's, 49s, and even 50+ a few times. Yet Oz is still stuck at 42-43 in the average as he was a month ago.