PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Sir Mohamed]

Is Dr. Oz changing his campaign attitude?

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1539590501975965697

[SnowLabrador]

No surprise there. Oz is using the Youngkin playbook. He'll win.

[LabourJersey]

Is Dr. Oz changing his campaign attitude?

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1539590501975965697

Pivoting to the center (however unconvincingly) is a pretty common tactic, to be fair.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO at Oz even changing the background from red to blue.

He's trying to pivot, but I wouldn't necessarily say he's pivoting to the "center" right now since the only thing that has changed is Trump, not his platform or his views that he espoused during the primary (yet)

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Wonder what Kathy Barnette thinks about this, considering she was smeared for not being Trumpy enough.

[Torie]

I think Oz wins by 4-5 points based on the national environment based on Republican voters holding their noses for him. No poll can convince me otherwise; I'll believe Fetterman winning when I see it. Oz's issues won't matter; all swing voters care about is MUH GAS PRICES!

Oz comes across to me as an inoffensive  well meaning nice guy, even if somewhat naive. I suspect he will perform at about the partisan baseline.

[Torie]

This may become a case where Fetterman's odds go up as the environment worsens for Democrats, since the possibility of this seat deciding control of the Senate is really the main thing buoying Oz. I don't see Pennsylvania voters preferring him over Fetterman on a personal level.

You really think voters read the Cook Report to see what the latest handicapping is right before they vote, and a significant number would vote for Fetterman if he is the 49th Dem elected, but not the 50th?

[GALeftist]

This may become a case where Fetterman's odds go up as the environment worsens for Democrats, since the possibility of this seat deciding control of the Senate is really the main thing buoying Oz. I don't see Pennsylvania voters preferring him over Fetterman on a personal level.

You really think voters read the Cook Report to see what the latest handicapping is right before they vote, and a significant number would vote for Fetterman if he is the 49th Dem elected, but not the 50th?

No, but people generally have an idea of the election's vibes, in my experience. I personally know a lot of moderates who voted R downballot in 2016 because they thought Hillary was a lock but D in 2020 because they thought Trump was the favorite (despite polling to the contrary). Of course, this is Atlanta, so they probably moved left significantly in the interim, but nevertheless.

[Torie]

This may become a case where Fetterman's odds go up as the environment worsens for Democrats, since the possibility of this seat deciding control of the Senate is really the main thing buoying Oz. I don't see Pennsylvania voters preferring him over Fetterman on a personal level.

You really think voters read the Cook Report to see what the latest handicapping is right before they vote, and a significant number would vote for Fetterman if he is the 49th Dem elected, but not the 50th?

No, but people generally have an idea of the election's vibes, in my experience. I personally know a lot of moderates who voted R downballot in 2016 because they thought Hillary was a lock but D in 2020 because they thought Trump was the favorite (despite polling to the contrary). Of course, this is Atlanta, so they probably moved left significantly in the interim, but nevertheless.

You run with a really, really strange group of people then. 

[President Johnson]

Owned!

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1539638332787163136

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lmao, Fetterman's campaign is really good in trolling Oz. We'll see whether it works in the fall.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1539638332787163136

These twitter roasts are more about getting media and possibly trying to engage younger folks than any real effort to convince folks of who they should vote for or even dissing Oz.

[Morning in Atlas]

lmao Oz just gets destroyed daily

I can't wait for the debates

[Senator Incitatus]

At this point, Oz is probably the worst candidate for either party in any competitive race. Probably ahead of Perkins if we include the marginal races.

[The Dowager Mod]

It's closer to Manhattan than PA.
https://twitter.com/CheriJacobus/status/1539606039557013507

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Wonder what Kathy Barnette thinks about this, considering she was smeared for not being Trumpy enough.

https://twitter.com/PASenateWatch/status/1539952649809719296?s=20&t=WJE-kZ6-...

[wbrocks67]

Well and even Oz's explanation for his PA residence is dubious at best. He registered in PA in 2020 as he said him and his wife were "living with his in-laws"? So Dr. Oz has a mansion in NJ and literal millions, but where he's registered to vote/live "now", he's living in the same house with his in-laws? Huh?

[President Johnson]

Lmao

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1539995024980688898

[GALeftist]

I have noticed a real refusal to engage with reality on the part of conservatives regarding this race. So much mockery of optimistic liberals who think CCM still has a chance despite middling poll numbers, but when it comes to PA, "oh this poll's sample is too D," "oh Oz just hasn't consolidated," "oh indys are good in this poll," etc. etc. There have been several polls now and the picture is clear as day: Oz is seriously unpopular with both indys and Republicans, if the election were held today he's probably be an underdog, and if the election were under a neutral environment he'd lose. He might be saved by the environment, and his poll numbers could improve, but these are just the facts.

[MT Treasurer]

I have noticed a real refusal to engage with reality on the part of conservatives regarding this race. So much mockery of optimistic liberals who think CCM still has a chance despite middling poll numbers, but when it comes to PA, "oh this poll's sample is too D," "oh Oz just hasn't consolidated," "oh indys are good in this poll," etc. etc. There have been several polls now and the picture is clear as day: Oz is seriously unpopular with both indys and Republicans, if the election were held today he's probably be an underdog, and if the election were under a neutral environment he'd lose. He might be saved by the environment, and his poll numbers could improve, but these are just the facts.

1) I haven’t seen any Republican here mocking optimistic liberals for saying that CCM "has a chance." What some of us disagree with is the arbitrary reasoning used to justify why NV will suddenly vote well to the left of the HPV when it’s been the state closest to the national popular vote for three consecutive cycles or why it is guaranteed to be close even in a Republican wave year.

2) I think by now most Republicans on this board have acknowledged that Oz is a very poor candidate (and I’ve been on record claiming that he would be since months before the primary). In my view, the only reason why Fetterman has a real chance in this race is because the PA GOP (clearly) did a miserable job in terms of recruiting and nominating candidates, both here and in the gubernatorial race. It’s true that there were posters who overestimated Oz's appeal as a candidate (in part because of rather lazy comparisons to the 2016 presidential race) and the extent to which he would run ahead of Mastriano (worth noting that this forum is notoriously unfriendly to candidates it perceives as 'extreme' in part because even most blue avatars on here are well to the left of the average GOP primary voter), but I think there’s a case to be made that it’s all downhill for Fetterman from here and that the past few weeks will turn out to have been Oz's weakest position in the race, with his prospects improving as the race becomes more nationalized/a referendum on Fetterman and Biden and voters forget about the GOP primary. I don’t think Oz will win this race on his own merits as a candidate, but Fetterman has a lot of positions that are completely out of step with the state while having no moderate image/established brand or experience navigating competitive races to fend off anything the GOP will use against him to put him through a meat grinder (case in point: the "Fetterman put murderers back on streets" line of attack) or to defy the environment. Unlike in Mastriano's case, national Republicans will also go to bat for Oz to win this race, so I’m not sold on Fetterman outperforming Shapiro like many now seem to think.

This will basically come down to whether Republicans can morph Oz into a generic Republican or at least a blank but safe option against the far left. This will take time because Oz's favorabilities are truly abysmal (and he’d lose if the election were held today), but I think it can be done (although it will still be closer than it should be) and it’s still a fairly volatile race.

To the broader point about Republican recruitment/candidate failures in the Senate and a potentially large Republican underperformance of the HPV in the individual Senate contests (people forget that this also happened in 2014), I absolutely acknowledge those. If Masters wins the nomination in AZ, I think there’s a real path for Democrats to hold the Senate even in this environment (-NV, +PA), in which case PA would become a must-win race for the GOP and in which case you’ll see the GOP throw even the kitchen sink at Fetterman.

[libertpaulian]

Dobbs has changed everything. There's no conventional wisdom anymore.

[Politician]

Going to be fun looking back at this thread after Oz wins and all the Democrats mocking him in this thread have to eat their words.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Going to be fun looking back at this thread after Oz wins and all the Democrats mocking him in this thread have to eat their words.

He very well may win, infact I think he’s favoured; but I guarantee him and Mastriano will have relatively embarrassing performances given what’s happening nationally. On the House level, most Biden + 0-3 seat seems like a sure fire GOP flip/hold

[Politician]

Going to be fun looking back at this thread after Oz wins and all the Democrats mocking him in this thread have to eat their words.

He very well may win, infact I think he’s favoured; but I guarantee him and Mastriano will have relatively embarrassing performances given what’s happening nationally. On the House level, most Biden + 0-3 seat seems like a sure fire GOP flip/hold

Oh I agree he's not a good candidate, but this thread has devolved into flat-out one-sided partisan mockery that's just incredibly stupid.

[wbrocks67]

Going to be fun looking back at this thread after Oz wins and all the Democrats mocking him in this thread have to eat their words.

You're really bad at nuance. No one is saying any of that. Pretty sure everyone in this thread is in agreement - Oz certainly CAN win. No one is saying he can't. But the odds are clearly stacked against him in a reversal of fortune here, because given the environment, Oz is a terrible candidate with terrible favorables against a well-liked challenger. All of that could be taken under by the red environment, sure, but now with Roe, Oz has a LOT going against him in this race.

[Brittain33]

Has Dr. Oz made a statement celebrating the victory of life in the Dobbs decision? I am sure he will rise to the challenge and release a compelling statement that unites his base and swing voters behind his principled leadership.