PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Minnesota Mike]

LOL. Fetterman for Twitter Troll in Chief.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1547683652791717891

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

LOL. Fetterman for Twitter Troll in Chief.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1547683652791717891

"...personally, I don't know why anybody would wanna leave Jersey because it's like the best place ever..."

I just gagged

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

LOL. Fetterman for Twitter Troll in Chief.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1547683652791717891

"...personally, I don't know why anybody would wanna leave Jersey because it's like the best place ever..."

I just gagged

Fetterman's social media game has been top-notch.

[Morning in Atlas]

Glad to see a national hero joining the team!

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1547693700288897025

[Lief 🗽]

Holy crap what an awful ad!
https://twitter.com/droz/status/1547682878565150720?s=21

[GALeftist]

Are there any candidates farther below replacement value than Dr. Oz?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Holy crap what an awful ad!
https://twitter.com/droz/status/1547682878565150720?s=21

Could be a bit of bias due to knowing who Oz was before he entered the political arena, but these ads come off as notably transparent.  

As I said in a previous post when Oz's campaign team put out an "interesting" pro-2A ad, you can almost hear and see his handlers rushing to get him ready right before the cameras start rolling -- plopping a hard-hat on his head and being like "okay, now shake hands with the workers, carry a clipboard, act like you're pulling factory levers..."  Now add a voiceover about how "Dr. Oz will fight for the working class" and we're golden.  

This is, of course, nothing new in the campaign ad game -- for either party.  There's LOTS of pandering and lots of blowing smoke.  

But there's some quality about these Mehmet Oz ads that just comes off as almost insulting.  I personally haven't decided on my vote in November, but they're not doing much for me personally.  

[The Dowager Mod]

  Snooki! 

[MT Treasurer]

This is the kind of guy who you feel a sudden urge to punch in the face every time you see/hear him talk. As someone who generally thinks "candidate quality" is a nebulous and arbitrary concept, I really do think he’s a uniquely poor candidate, even more so than, say, Walker or Masters, both of whom at least come across as people with sincere convictions. Every time Oz opens his mouth or steps in front of a camera, (a) he comes off as ridiculously fake/insincere and the embodiment of the slick snake oil salesman, (b) you can tell he’s struggling so much to relate/pander to the people he needs (just reinforces the notion that he is incredibly out of touch), (c) he struggles to deliver even the most basic talking points fed to him, and (d) he barely manages to articulate a coherent message or stay on topic. Between this and his abysmal favorability ratings as well as trends lagging a bit behind in down-ballot races, PA voting to the left of GA this year (one last time) wouldn’t really surprise me.

I also think Mastriano outperforming Oz isn’t out of the question at all. Absolutely humiliating.

[Morning in Atlas]

This man just lives to get destroyed on Twitter daily

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This is the kind of guy who you feel a sudden urge to punch in the face every time you see/hear him talk. As someone who generally thinks "candidate quality" is a nebulous and arbitrary concept, I really do think he’s a uniquely poor candidate, even more so than, say, Walker or Masters, both of whom at least come across as people with sincere convictions. Every time Oz opens his mouth or steps in front of a camera, (a) he comes off as ridiculously fake/insincere and the embodiment of the slick snake oil salesman, (b) you can tell he’s struggling so much to relate/pander to the people he needs (just reinforces the notion that he is incredibly out of touch), (c) he struggles to deliver even the most basic talking points fed to him, and (d) he barely manages to articulate a coherent message or stay on topic. Between this and his abysmal favorability ratings as well as trends lagging a bit behind in down-ballot races, PA voting to the left of GA this year (one last time) wouldn’t really surprise me.

I also think Mastriano outperforming Oz isn’t out of the question at all. Absolutely humiliating.

Well put, MT.  

Say what you will about Fetterman, but he *looks* the part.  In his primary ad where he was driving a pickup through a lonely rural PA town at daybreak (I think it was daybreak), you didn't have to agree with his politics or what he was saying.  Hell, you can think that Fetterman is Stalin reincarnated and that he wants the rename PA to the "Socialist Republic of Pennsylvania".  

But he LOOKS the part, the sort of guy who looks at home driving a pickup thru rural PA.  And appearances can make all the difference.  

When you look at Oz standing there in a plaid button-up, shotgun in hand, shooting clay pigeons and talking about how he has always supported the 2A, he's always lived by conservative values, etc. etc., it just doesn't play (at least in my opinion).  

Oz may still win here.  Things are that bleak nationwide for the Democrats, so nobody should be writing him off.  But it's just...baffling to me that the GOP looked at Oz and said "yup, he's our guy". 

Also, the few pro-Oz ads really put an emphasis on him being an "outsider".  That "outsider" label may not be the best thing to run on when your connections to PA are questionable...

[Politician]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

[GALeftist]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins.

Heh, I bet you libtards sure feel dumb now that Oz has squeaked out a win in a Biden+1 state in an environment 8 points redder than 2020. Don't you feel silly? Don't you see how much of an electoral titan one has to be to win the state equivalent of OH-13, which basically no one thinks Dems will win (except actually OH-13 voted for Biden by more than PA did), in a red wave year?

In all seriousness, this is the dumbest point of all time. Oz does not have to be a good candidate to win. This is a tossup state in a red wave, it should be a layup. I agree that Oz is favored but if you think the GOP wouldn't be better off with McCormick or pretty much any other Pennsylvania Republican for that matter you're fooling yourself.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

Usually having net negative positives among your own party is considered and losing by up to 10% in the polls in a R-wave year is considered 'concerning'

[Politician]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

Usually having net negative positives among your own party is considered and losing by up to 10% in the polls in a R-wave year is considered 'concerning'

The same polls that had Biden up 13 in Florida right?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

No, Oz Derangement Syndrome (which, c'mon now, the "derangement syndrome" bit stopped being clever many election cycles ago) would be taking Oz's perfectly valid message and twisting it into something sinister.  

The problem is that Oz's campaign doesn't really have a message other than "I'm a Republican, I'm working for you."  He's not really conveying how he would be good for Pennsylvania and there's lots of things working against him to that effect.  

Fetterman isn't anywhere near a lock and with this social media blitz -- hoo boy, he's gonna have egg on his face if he loses in November.  Frankly, I think some of his antics have been a little bit...well, not my style, but anyway.  

In any case: you're not an idiot, Politician.  I refuse to believe that you consider Oz a good candidate.  I still have him winning, but there's nothing that indicates he was the best that the GOP had to offer.  

[Politician]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

No, Oz Derangement Syndrome (which, c'mon now, the "derangement syndrome" bit stopped being clever many election cycles ago) would be taking Oz's perfectly valid message and twisting it into something sinister. 

The problem is that Oz's campaign doesn't really have a message other than "I'm a Republican, I'm working for you."  He's not really conveying how he would be good for Pennsylvania and there's lots of things working against him to that effect. 

Fetterman isn't anywhere near a lock and with this social media blitz -- hoo boy, he's gonna have egg on his face if he loses in November.  Frankly, I think some of his antics have been a little bit...well, not my style, but anyway. 

In any case, you're not an idiot, Politician.  Oz is not a good candidate.  I still have him winning, but there's nothing that indicates he was the best that the GOP had to offer. 

The problem I have with this thread is how it's been beaten into the ground. We get it, of course Oz is a horrible candidate, now can we move on and not just circlejerk about when Fetterman owns him on Twitter?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

No, Oz Derangement Syndrome (which, c'mon now, the "derangement syndrome" bit stopped being clever many election cycles ago) would be taking Oz's perfectly valid message and twisting it into something sinister. 

The problem is that Oz's campaign doesn't really have a message other than "I'm a Republican, I'm working for you."  He's not really conveying how he would be good for Pennsylvania and there's lots of things working against him to that effect. 

Fetterman isn't anywhere near a lock and with this social media blitz -- hoo boy, he's gonna have egg on his face if he loses in November.  Frankly, I think some of his antics have been a little bit...well, not my style, but anyway. 

In any case, you're not an idiot, Politician.  Oz is not a good candidate.  I still have him winning, but there's nothing that indicates he was the best that the GOP had to offer. 

The problem I have with this thread is how it's been beaten into the ground. We get it, Oz is a bad candidate, now can we move on and not just circlejerk about when Fetterman owns him on Twitter?

Well what else is there?

Politician, we can't have equal representation when one side is disproportionately campaigning. 

It would be different if Oz was fighting fire with fire (or doing anything at all).  If he was, for instance, using social media to reciprocate or airing quality ads that boost his campaign, I would be all for balance.  And add to that the fact that we've seen very few polls for this race. 

As I said, I'm not the biggest fan of Team Fetterman's dunk-style of campaigning -- I think it's a little juvenile and it's a big risk/reward in terms of comeuppance.  But it's SOMETHING. 

[Ferguson97]

"...personally, I don't know why anybody would wanna leave Jersey because it's like the best place ever..."

I just gagged

Why are you booing her, she's right!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

http://

"...personally, I don't know why anybody would wanna leave Jersey because it's like the best place ever..."

I just gagged

Why are you booing her, she's right!

I refuse to recommend this post on principle, but that's one of my favorite meme-able moments from the EAS.  

Anyway, Jersey is gross

[With you in spirit]

Imagine Conor Lamb trying to run this campaign against Oz.

[wbrocks67]

The genius of Fetterman's stuff is the audience, especially young people.

At a time when young people are completely cynical to everything politics, young voters in PA actually have a candidate (or candidates team also) that is speaking their language online. It goes a lot to 'enthusiasm'. This is the type of thing that I worried about in a theoretical world where Lamb was the nominee, for example.

Oz, meanwhile, comes off completely patronizing at every turn, and is basically a caricature at this point of a bozo is so just so out of touch that it's embarrassing.

Until Fetterman is back on the trail, his team has been objectively smart in doing stuff like this to get free (or very little $$ spent on) publicity. Hammering home the idea of Oz being some rich out of touch, out of state carpetbagger is possibly the best message they could push right now.

Meanwhile Oz is just limping along with his "Bernie Sanders socialist king john fetterman" stuff that, with many ads, is actually making Fetterman look MORE cool than he was before. (NRSC has a new 'socialist sasquatch' graphic out that is basically designed to make him look cool)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

Usually having net negative positives among your own party is considered and losing by up to 10% in the polls in a R-wave year is considered 'concerning'

The same polls that had Biden up 13 in Florida right?

Yep.  Also the same polls that nailed the 2020 Georgia margins in the Presidential and both Senate races.  Don't cherry pick.

[S019]

This thread is frankly the epitome of the “candidate quality” meme. Now Oz could lose, but it’d have more to do with Republicans having an underperforming election performance than any vague things about “appeal” or whatever. Also I’m not convinced a one dimensional campaign about Oz’s carpetbagging is exactly going to be successful for the Democrats. Lastly, Democrats are going to have to eventually face the attacks that many of Fetterman’s views are outside of the mainstream and letting these attacks just go unanswered while Republicans refine how they plan to present them is not exactly a wise strategy. I’d put this on the border of Tilt and Lean R, but if Republicans win the GCB by 4 or 5, they’re almost certainly winning here.