PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dr Oz is finished , Trump is in FL and Don Jr is in OH that's why DeWine and Vance got a surge Don Jr is in OH campaign for Vance non stop who is Tim Ryan surrogate

[Pheurton Skeurto]

hate to be that guy, but did Fetterman cost Dem's the senate by not dropping out after his stroke? This seat was so winnable, Oz is near unelectable, but then Fetterman's ego messed it all up.

I really don’t think that’s fair. No one, including Fetterman, could have known how his recovery would go at the time. The real mistake was doing the debate. Better to just take the hit of “cowardice.”

I think it’s fair. Lamb seemed like the establishment type that midterms tend to resent but however in this case Lamb would be well ahead IMO

I don’t see any reason Lamb would or should be the replacement nominee. More likely they would find a stronger candidate capable of generating enthusiasm among the large majority who voted for Fetterman, presumably with Fetterman’s own consent.

Who would that have been? Cartwright?

No way Cartwright would've generated more enthusiasm than Fetterman. It seems that the only PA Democrat with a more dedicated built in base than Fetterman is Shapiro.

[Calthrina950]

hate to be that guy, but did Fetterman cost Dem's the senate by not dropping out after his stroke? This seat was so winnable, Oz is near unelectable, but then Fetterman's ego messed it all up.

I really don’t think that’s fair. No one, including Fetterman, could have known how his recovery would go at the time. The real mistake was doing the debate. Better to just take the hit of “cowardice.”

I think it’s fair. Lamb seemed like the establishment type that midterms tend to resent but however in this case Lamb would be well ahead IMO

I don’t see any reason Lamb would or should be the replacement nominee. More likely they would find a stronger candidate capable of generating enthusiasm among the large majority who voted for Fetterman, presumably with Fetterman’s own consent.

Who would that have been? Cartwright?

No way Cartwright would've generated more enthusiasm than Fetterman. It seems that the only PA Democrat with a more dedicated built in base than Fetterman is Shapiro.

Then who would have replaced Shapiro as the gubernatorial nominee? At this point, obviously, it's too late for a change to be made, and if Fetterman wins tomorrow - which I would give about a 50/50 shot of happening - we'll have to see how his recovery continues to proceed, and if talk of a replacement intensifies. Shapiro will almost certainly win at this point, and has probably already begun to think about potential alternatives to Fetterman if he has to make that decision.

[wbrocks67]

There will be no more talk of "replacement." As someone who has now seen Fetterman in person multiple times the past few weeks, he's fine. He was actually the best I've seen him yet at the Obama/Biden rally. I'm more convinced than ever that the debate was probably not only nerves but just not a very conducive format (so fast-paced) for someone still in recovery.

[Person Man]

FOR THE 678TH TIME,

WE HAVE NO EVIDENCE LAMB WOULD HAVE WON AND WE NEVER WILL!

THIS HAPPENS LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE TIME A CANDIDATE LOSES

Kerry-Dean 2.0 but kind of in reverse.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

There will be no more talk of "replacement." As someone who has now seen Fetterman in person multiple times the past few weeks, he's fine. He was actually the best I've seen him yet at the Obama/Biden rally. I'm more convinced than ever that the debate was probably not only nerves but just not a very conducive format (so fast-paced) for someone still in recovery.

Yeah he was actually great last night, I heard people around me saying he sounded great! He had a few minor slips (I think at one point he said "Send me back to Jersey" and then quickly corrected and said "Send Oz back to Jersey") but was very on message and sounded vintage. He is perfectly capable of serving.

[wbrocks67]

There will be no more talk of "replacement." As someone who has now seen Fetterman in person multiple times the past few weeks, he's fine. He was actually the best I've seen him yet at the Obama/Biden rally. I'm more convinced than ever that the debate was probably not only nerves but just not a very conducive format (so fast-paced) for someone still in recovery.

Yeah he was actually great last night, I heard people around me saying he sounded great! He had a few minor slips (I think at one point he said "Send me back to Jersey" and then quickly corrected and said "Send Oz back to Jersey") but was very on message and sounded vintage. He is perfectly capable of serving.

Yeah, there was a woman in front of me at the rally on Saturday in Philly who seemed shocked how good he sounded. She said something to her husband like "maybe he was just having a bad day" [on the day of the debate] since he sounded so much better.

[wbrocks67]

One interesting thing I'm seeing from the early vote returns is that some of Fetterman's strongest counties in the primary are seeing some of the highest D return rates right now in the mail vote. At first I thought it could just be ancestral Ds who are voting R, but I imagine any D that is voting by mail in a more red area is more likely to be an actual D vs. ancestral D at this point.

[Crackerjack McJohnson]

hate to be that guy, but did Fetterman cost Dem's the senate by not dropping out after his stroke? This seat was so winnable, Oz is near unelectable, but then Fetterman's ego messed it all up.

I really don’t think that’s fair. No one, including Fetterman, could have known how his recovery would go at the time. The real mistake was doing the debate. Better to just take the hit of “cowardice.”

I think it’s fair. Lamb seemed like the establishment type that midterms tend to resent but however in this case Lamb would be well ahead IMO

Again - I cannot believe the utter arrogance that it takes to say Lambchin would have won the general after he lost the primary by 30 points.

You don't see me acting this childish with Hassan or Pappas. I'm not fans of either of them, but I'm not going into threads weekly concern trolling about them. You don't see me bringing up Pappas lying about weed and student debt, and you don't see me pearl-clutching about how a vote 2 years ago will hurt Hassan now. You don't see me talking about a bunch of silent leftists who would sweep her over the finish line. In reality, the Sawx vote does not exist in New Hampshire.

This man got his ass beat in the primary and centrists still want to come on and advocate for their dogsh*t candidate weekly. And it's not even from people from the primary. These dead-enders weren't even there for him then! I didn't hear them a single peep from the #CenterOrBust crowd until Fetterman had long won the primary. I wasn't getting into debates with Alben or GMac or whoever. They were dead silent, even when Fetterman first had his stroke. They only struck when the progressive nominee looked wounded. When the fighting was actually happening, these people were nowhere to be found.

Because deep down, they know their candidate would have lost the primary. They know he's a bad campaigner. Because to these people bringing up Conor Lamb, six years of Senator Oz is an acceptable sacrifice to keep painting us as "unelectable".

I agree with this.  If Connor Lamb is such a great choice as a candidate then why did he lose so badly???  Why is it a systematic failure or the voters' fault when the center-candidate doesn't do well but when it's someone like Fetterman it's like... some Starbucks' kid's fault for having lefty views.  I also agree with "Senator Oz is a worthy sacrifice".  Centerist Democrats love to get their thoughts and views from TV and wasn't Dr. Oz on the View for a long time?  You'd think they'd like him.  Maybe he's not even a sacrifice.  Maybe they liked his elixirs and fat-reducing shakes.  

Anyway the commercials have to STOP!  I was watching Philiies World Series the other night and the commercials were Oz > Fetterman > OZ > Fetterman all night.  My buddy brought a friend from Long Island who is a big big time Republican and it got him going something awful it's like... JUST WATCH THE GAME, MAN. 

[Morning in Atlas]

Nah man Jacobin and Kyle Kulinski brainwashed the entire state to vote for Fetterman

[Eraserhead]

It's a coin flip race at worst. I'd wait until tomorrow before writing anyone's epitaph.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's a coin flip race at worst. I'd wait until tomorrow before writing anyone's epitaph.

Tomorrow?  With Pennsylvania still not starting to count absentee ballots until Election Day, I expect a 2020 redux as far as their count.  I'll predict that a winner in this race will be called no earlier than Thursday.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's a coin flip race at worst. I'd wait until tomorrow before writing anyone's epitaph.

Tomorrow?  With Pennsylvania still not starting to count absentee ballots until Election Day, I expect a 2020 redux as far as their count.  I'll predict that a winner in this race will be called no earlier than Thursday.

I also predict that everyone will be fooled by the red mirage again.

[bagelman]

It's a coin flip race at worst. I'd wait until tomorrow before writing anyone's epitaph.

Tomorrow?  With Pennsylvania still not starting to count absentee ballots until Election Day, I expect a 2020 redux as far as their count.  I'll predict that a winner in this race will be called no earlier than Thursday.

I also predict that everyone will be fooled by the red mirage again.

Oz will be up by like 5 points if he loses lol. I still remember when Trump was leading by 6 digits.

[wbrocks67]

With the amount of mail-ins at this point, I think Oz has to at least be up by 15% with the Election Day vote. Will be interesting to see where he starts.

Fetterman also in Pittsburgh tonight for final rally. Assuming they are trying to juice the hell out of PGH for all its worth to offset anything else.

[wbrocks67]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

[Not Me, Us]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

Based on?

[wbrocks67]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

Not really sure I agree if the best 8 Republican partisan polls can get Oz is only 48% on average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

538's average, which includes the partisan polls, is Oz+0.2.  This is Lean?

[Not Me, Us]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

Based on?

Several reasons. Recent polls have significantly narrowed in Oz's favor. The national environment is horrendous for our party. President Biden's approval rating has been in the crater for like a year, and as much as I love the man, Fetterman's stroke has really hurt him, as unfair and dumb as that is. Inflation has ravaged Americans' pocketbook, including mine, yet Democrats basically ignore the issue. I like Fetterman, I've supported him since before he even announced, and I proudly cast my vote for him, but I do not believe he will win. He certainly could, but I do believe Oz is the favorite right now.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

Based on?

Several reasons. Recent polls have significantly narrowed in Oz's favor. The national environment is horrendous for our party. President Biden's approval rating has been in the crater for like a year, and as much as I love the man, Fetterman's stroke has really hurt him, as unfair and dumb as that is. Inflation has ravaged Americans' pocketbook, including mine, yet Democrats basically ignore the issue. I like Fetterman, I've supported him since before he even announced, and I proudly cast my vote for him, but I do not believe he will win. He certainly could, but I do believe Oz is the favorite right now.

That's fair that you think Oz will win for all the reasons you stated.  But to me, calling it Lean R is a stretch.

[Not Me, Us]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

Based on?

Several reasons. Recent polls have significantly narrowed in Oz's favor. The national environment is horrendous for our party. President Biden's approval rating has been in the crater for like a year, and as much as I love the man, Fetterman's stroke has really hurt him, as unfair and dumb as that is. Inflation has ravaged Americans' pocketbook, including mine, yet Democrats basically ignore the issue. I like Fetterman, I've supported him since before he even announced, and I proudly cast my vote for him, but I do not believe he will win. He certainly could, but I do believe Oz is the favorite right now.

That's fair that you think Oz will win for all the reasons you stated.  But to me, calling it Lean R is a stretch.

Maybe, but I don't use tilts and I think it's closer to lean R than tossup, so that's my rating. I really, really hope I'm wrong, and I'm not a MillenialModerate-esque doomer, but that is where I see the race right now.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

Based on?

Several reasons. Recent polls have significantly narrowed in Oz's favor. The national environment is horrendous for our party. President Biden's approval rating has been in the crater for like a year, and as much as I love the man, Fetterman's stroke has really hurt him, as unfair and dumb as that is. Inflation has ravaged Americans' pocketbook, including mine, yet Democrats basically ignore the issue. I like Fetterman, I've supported him since before he even announced, and I proudly cast my vote for him, but I do not believe he will win. He certainly could, but I do believe Oz is the favorite right now.

That's fair that you think Oz will win for all the reasons you stated.  But to me, calling it Lean R is a stretch.

Maybe, but I don't use tilts and I think it's closer to lean R than tossup, so that's my rating. I really, really hope I'm wrong, and I'm not a MillenialModerate-esque doomer, but that is where I see the race right now.

Fair enough.

[Eraserhead]

I guess this is what you call a tossup!

17 polls since the debate. 9 nonpartisan, 8 partisan.

Nonpartisan average: Fetterman +3.0 (48.0-45.0)
Partisan average: Oz +2.4 (48.0-45.6)

It’s really more lean R than tossup at this point.

538's average, which includes the partisan polls, is Oz+0.2.  This is Lean?

We can thank "Patriot Polling" for Oz even mustering that.