PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

His math was off in the original, but we're now at the ~45% of 2018 by 10a

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1589997437766479872

Who is this?

From what I can tell, an ET-type guy who has been analyzing the EV data. Has also said he has a whole spreadsheet tonight to tell where Fetterman/Oz are hitting their marks.

FWIW, his #s line up pretty solidly with the Philly turnout tracker: https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/

[Sir Mohamed]

His math was off in the original, but we're now at the ~45% of 2018 by 10a

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1589997437766479872

This seems a good sign for Fetterman?

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, if Philly can get to the 2018-level turnout, that would be fantastic. That's when Wolf and Casey crushed it with like 87% of the vote.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Yeah, if Philly can get to the 2018-level turnout, that would be fantastic. That's when Wolf and Casey crushed it with like 87% of the vote.

But if Fetterman underperforms in Philly more votes there would help Oz. I can't see how Fetterman can win this.
-SnowLabrador, probably.

[Woody]

His math was off in the original, but we're now at the ~45% of 2018 by 10a

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1589997437766479872

This says nothing. Rest of the state will have monster turnout, and Fetterman will underperform in Philly.

[Not Me, Us]

I am sorry I couldnt get much done for astrology for 2022. been busy. Moved to Colorado... spent a lot of time in Utah. Busy with work..

for 2024.. ill essentially start compiling candidates charts tomorrow!

Thank you for your service.

[jamestroll]

I am sorry I couldnt get much done for astrology for 2022. been busy. Moved to Colorado... spent a lot of time in Utah. Busy with work..

for 2024.. ill essentially start compiling candidates charts tomorrow!

Thank you for your service.

Absolutely! I will start tomorrow with that for 2024. I even will have an active troll twitter account to stalk candidates birth times on twitter! Not just facebook and instragam!

for pa sen.... I think if either of those candidates were facing someone else, they would lose significantly.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

While I do maintain that Philadelphia minority turnout is the key to putting Fetterman over the edge (probably more so than maintaining collar county vote share), my default expectation is that vote share would rise statewide from 2018 to nearly 600k. People are more engaged across the board than the prior midterm.

Philadelphia will be between 10.5 and 11.5% of statewide turnout, but that exact decimal point will matter a great deal, so if enthusiasm elsewhere increases even more, there could be trouble. This is part of the reason 2020 was so close (a drop in vote share by a third of a point from 2018). Votes increased but nowhere near as much as in other places which offset a lot of the swing.



The trend still seems like we will hit 590-600k with the post-work bump. But hard to take this turnout number in a vacuum.

[wbrocks67]

As of 1:30PM, estimated Philly turnout at ~342K (222K in person + 120K mail)

Will pass 2014 total turnout very soon.

[SnowLabrador]

Dammit, it's not increasing quickly enough.

[soundchaser]

Dammit, it's not increasing quickly enough.

This is always the lull. Expect a jump at 4-6 when people get off work.

[wbrocks67]

Key thing for Fetterman will also be Pittsburgh turnout. PGH turnout was massive in the primary, so he really needs to run up the score there.

Interestingly enough, Oz has barely touched Western PA. He heavily focused on SEPA. So, wouldn't be surprised at massive margins out of PGH for Fetterman.

[ctherainbow]

Heads up, Luzerne County is having serious issues with races not appearing on the ballot in some precincts, other precincts are running out of paper and had to put a hold on voting while they went to buy more.  Luzerne is always a sh**tshow, but this one’s gonna be especially ugly.

[President Johnson]

Key thing for Fetterman will also be Pittsburgh turnout. PGH turnout was massive in the primary, so he really needs to run up the score there.

Interestingly enough, Oz has barely touched Western PA. He heavily focused on SEPA. So, wouldn't be surprised at massive margins out of PGH for Fetterman.

Any numbers from there yet?

I would assume Fetterman should really well there because he's from Western Pennsylvania.

[Splash]

Key thing for Fetterman will also be Pittsburgh turnout. PGH turnout was massive in the primary, so he really needs to run up the score there.

Interestingly enough, Oz has barely touched Western PA. He heavily focused on SEPA. So, wouldn't be surprised at massive margins out of PGH for Fetterman.

I'm in Pittsburgh. I am going to vote at 3PM. I will provide my undoubtedly accurate and significant anecdote of turnout at my local precinct afterwards.

More seriously, I will say that the Dems GOTV in the area has been pretty good. I've been contacted a couple times by Dem affiliated groups. I've gotten nothing from Republicans, which is pretty surprising since I'm a newly minted PA voter and my neighborhood - although Dem-leaning, isn't a stronghold (it's like 60-40).

[Eraserhead]

I'm liking most of what I'm hearing out of here so far... unlike some other states.

[ctherainbow]

I have reports coming in now that the Luzerne County Chair successfully sued to keep Luzerne County polls open until 10pm to make up the lost time when precincts didn’t have paper to print ballots.

[ctherainbow]

Unfortunately, there are also reports coming in that precincts are now running out of provisional ballots, as they were using them to allow people to vote while the machines were down.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Pennsylvania just loves making election day a sh*tshow every year.

[Aurelius]

Pennsylvania just loves making election day a sh*tshow every year.

Thank god for your northern neighbor taking the heat off. Oneida county (my dad's hometown) using sticky notes to keep track of which ballots were good and bad and then the sticky notes fell off, never forget

[ꙮ]

Pennsylvania just loves making election day a sh*tshow every year.

Thank god for your northern neighbor taking the heat off. Oneida county (my dad's hometown) using sticky notes to keep track of which ballots were good and bad and then the sticky notes fell off, never forget

We can only hope that NY-22 will deliver as much excitement as it did last cycle.

[Splash]

Key thing for Fetterman will also be Pittsburgh turnout. PGH turnout was massive in the primary, so he really needs to run up the score there.

Interestingly enough, Oz has barely touched Western PA. He heavily focused on SEPA. So, wouldn't be surprised at massive margins out of PGH for Fetterman.

I'm in Pittsburgh. I am going to vote at 3PM. I will provide my undoubtedly accurate and significant anecdote of turnout at my local precinct afterwards.

More seriously, I will say that the Dems GOTV in the area has been pretty good. I've been contacted a couple times by Dem affiliated groups. I've gotten nothing from Republicans, which is pretty surprising since I'm a newly minted PA voter and my neighborhood - although Dem-leaning, isn't a stronghold (it's like 60-40).

Voted around 3:45 PM. There was a short line to check-in but that was about it. All said, I was in and out in 10 minutes. I saw more "young people" (under 40) than I anticipated but that could have been because of the hour of day.

That's about it. Super helpful, I know.

[wbrocks67]

Philly was at about ~420K turnout at 4:30PM. 2018 turnout was 540K, so we could really exceed this now

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1590094534880686080

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Philly was at about ~420K turnout at 4:30PM. 2018 turnout was 540K, so we could really exceed this now

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1590094534880686080

2018 turnout was 554,000. SixtySixWards had it hitting 420k at 5:00PM and closer to 455-460k at the latest hour. That's an hourly rate of 32k per hour with two hours left. However, the non-work hours are likely closer to 45k an hour.

It seems like we are on pace for about 550k just about matching 2018 turnout. Exceeding it will be tight

At 2018 margins, that is a net margin of 412k votes. At 2020 margins, that is a net margin of 350k votes.

[wbrocks67]

He updated - about ~480K at 6:30pm

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1590124694346555392?s=46&t=FD3BvNX5Sl0ijWJZfsQAcw

Need about 75K in the final 90 minutes to top 2018, though there are also another ~45k mail-in ballots that weren't received as of this morning, so this could be dropped off today.