PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Was curious how Indies were breaking from poll to poll (Trafalgar and Susquehanna had no crosstabs)

Rather unsurprising that Remington, IA, and Patriot give Oz his biggest leads (+2-3 overall) and they have him at insane margins with Indies.

Marist: Fetterman +12 (49-37)
Siena: Fetterman +12 (50-38)
Muhlenberg: Fetterman +12 (48-37)
Emerson: Fetterman +5 (48-43)

Research co: Tie (50-50)
Fox: tie (31-31)

Co/efficient: Oz +6 (45-39)
Suffolk: Oz +11 (43-32)
Patriot: Oz +20 (57-37)
Remington: Oz +23 (50-27)
IA: Oz +32 (61-29)

[lfromnj]

Slightly off topic, but does anyone know how Giselle Fetterman got a green card? As far as I can tell she overstayed a VISA illegally after the Reagan amnesty and married John Fetterman in 2008. She already had her green card by 2004 and got her citizenship in 2009

[Ferguson97]

Nah man Jacobin and Kyle Kulinski brainwashed the entire state to vote for Fetterman

Rare Kyle Kulinski W

[Kamala's side hoe]

Slightly off topic, but does anyone know how Giselle Fetterman got a green card? As far as I can tell she overstayed a VISA illegally after the Reagan amnesty and married John Fetterman in 2008. She already had her green card by 2004 and got her citizenship in 2009

From her Wiki page:

Fetterman was born in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.[2] When she was seven years old, Fetterman came to the United States as an undocumented child immigrant with her mother and younger brother, taking up residence in a one-room apartment in New York City.[3][2][4] They left Brazil due to violent crime in their community.[2][5] In New York, the family lived in poverty, and furnished their apartment with furniture they found on the street.[3] Fetterman said that her family often depended on food banks and thrift stores.[2] Her mother, who had a PhD degree from a Brazilian university and had worked as a nutritionist and educator, took jobs cleaning hotels and houses, and was often denied pay due to her status as an undocumented immigrant.[2][5]

[lfromnj]

Slightly off topic, but does anyone know how Giselle Fetterman got a green card? As far as I can tell she overstayed a VISA illegally after the Reagan amnesty and married John Fetterman in 2008. She already had her green card by 2004 and got her citizenship in 2009

From her Wiki page:

Fetterman was born in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.[2] When she was seven years old, Fetterman came to the United States as an undocumented child immigrant with her mother and younger brother, taking up residence in a one-room apartment in New York City.[3][2][4] They left Brazil due to violent crime in their community.[2][5] In New York, the family lived in poverty, and furnished their apartment with furniture they found on the street.[3] Fetterman said that her family often depended on food banks and thrift stores.[2] Her mother, who had a PhD degree from a Brazilian university and had worked as a nutritionist and educator, took jobs cleaning hotels and houses, and was often denied pay due to her status as an undocumented immigrant.[2][5]

Yeah but that doesn't tell anything specific about how she recieved her green card which is next to impossible for illegal immigrants.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Slightly off topic, but does anyone know how Giselle Fetterman got a green card? As far as I can tell she overstayed a VISA illegally after the Reagan amnesty and married John Fetterman in 2008. She already had her green card by 2004 and got her citizenship in 2009

From her Wiki page:

Fetterman was born in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.[2] When she was seven years old, Fetterman came to the United States as an undocumented child immigrant with her mother and younger brother, taking up residence in a one-room apartment in New York City.[3][2][4] They left Brazil due to violent crime in their community.[2][5] In New York, the family lived in poverty, and furnished their apartment with furniture they found on the street.[3] Fetterman said that her family often depended on food banks and thrift stores.[2] Her mother, who had a PhD degree from a Brazilian university and had worked as a nutritionist and educator, took jobs cleaning hotels and houses, and was often denied pay due to her status as an undocumented immigrant.[2][5]

Yeah but that doesn't tell anything specific about how she recieved her green card which is next to impossible for illegal immigrants.

Assuming this info was true in the early 2000s, crime and lawlessness in (post)-dictatorship-era Brazil?

link

As described above, if you entered the United States illegally and have more than 180 days of unlawful presence, you will need to leave the United States to apply for a green card at a U.S. embassy or consulate. In order to avoid the three- and ten-year re-entry bars, you’ll need to apply for a “waiver of inadmissibility” to return to the United States.

To qualify for a waiver, you will have to show that your “qualifying relative” will experience “extreme hardship” if you are not allowed to live in the United States. For this particular type of waiver—called an “unlawful presence waiver”—a qualifying relative can be a spouse or a parent who is either a U.S. citizen or U.S. green card holder. (You can include information about how the hardship faced by your children would impact your spouse, but children by themselves are not considered qualifying relatives for unlawful presence waivers.)

When preparing your waiver application, you have to make the case that the hardship your relative would experience is “extreme.” There has to be a strong reason that you and your relative can’t live together in your home country, as well as a compelling argument that your relative will suffer if you aren’t allowed to live in the United States.

[lfromnj]

Does high crime usually give a green card? Usually it would at least include threats of murder. Even then she got the green card in 2004. Brazil isn't exactly a super safe country but is it refugee status tier?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't be Atlas without dooming about the election results on Election Day before any votes are actually counted...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wouldn't be Atlas without dooming about the election results on Election Day before any votes are actually counted...

It's just getting me more excited for the party tonight

Seriously no matter how this turns out, I can't wait to see both new and returning faces (good to see lfromnj for instance, also saw Buzz walking around somewhere) and all the twists/upsets that are yet to come.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wouldn't be Atlas without dooming about the election results on Election Day before any votes are actually counted...

It's just getting me more excited for the party tonight

Seriously no matter how this turns out, I can't wait to see both new and returning faces (good to see lfromnj for instance) and all the twists/upsets that are yet to come.  

Yeah.
I think this time anyway it's worth keeping in mind egg in the face from last time as someone who expected a McAuliffe win. Turnout higher in Dem stronghold does not automatically help Ds. The same holds true for R strongholds, incidentally.
Just something to keep in mind going forward. Things look like they'll be fairly close.

[Continential]

hate to be that guy, but did Fetterman cost Dem's the senate by not dropping out after his stroke? This seat was so winnable, Oz is near unelectable, but then Fetterman's ego messed it all up.

I really don’t think that’s fair. No one, including Fetterman, could have known how his recovery would go at the time. The real mistake was doing the debate. Better to just take the hit of “cowardice.”

I think it’s fair. Lamb seemed like the establishment type that midterms tend to resent but however in this case Lamb would be well ahead IMO

I don’t see any reason Lamb would or should be the replacement nominee. More likely they would find a stronger candidate capable of generating enthusiasm among the large majority who voted for Fetterman, presumably with Fetterman’s own consent.

Who would that have been? Cartwright?

I’d be fine with Lamb but I think someone like Tom Wolf would have been a good choice.

[Continential]

But either way, I can’t wait for this race to end. I look forward to staying up all night and drinking a lot of soda to stay awake while intently following races around the country and here in Pennsylvania where hopefully most results are in at a predictable time instead of what happened in 2020.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

But either way, I can’t wait for this race to end. I look forward to staying up all night and drinking a lot of soda to stay awake while intently following races around the country and here in Pennsylvania where hopefully most results are in at a predictable time instead of what happened in 2020.

Isn't it a school night for you, young man?

[Person Man]

What the hell is going on right now? People overreacting to internet rumors again?

[wbrocks67]

But either way, I can’t wait for this race to end. I look forward to staying up all night and drinking a lot of soda to stay awake while intently following races around the country and here in Pennsylvania where hopefully most results are in at a predictable time instead of what happened in 2020.

Isn't it a school night for you, young man?

Did you decide how you were going to vote today?

[Buzz]

This will be the race I will be paying the most attention to tonight. 

[ꙮ]

Did we ever get jimmie's astrological analysis on this one?

[jamestroll]

Did we ever get jimmie's astrological analysis on this one?

No, I lack the time necessary.

I will say both candidates basic charts look sh**tty. but we will see.

[Morning in Atlas]

Did we ever get jimmie's astrological analysis on this one?

No, I lack the time necessary.

I will say both candidates basic charts look sh**tty. but we will see.

Glad to see 40% of Democrats will write in Conor Lamb.

[wbrocks67]

Wow. Philly almost at 50% of 2018 total turnout as of only 9:30.

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1589992520150560769

[wbrocks67]

Unsurprisingly, we have already blown past the total 2021 turnout (214k) in Philly.

Total 2014 turnout in Philly btw was ~380k.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Wow. Philly almost at 50% of 2018 total turnout as of only 9:30.

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1589992520150560769

If this is true, I have no doubt that Fetterman wins.

[jamestroll]

I am sorry I couldnt get much done for astrology for 2022. been busy. Moved to Colorado... spent a lot of time in Utah. Busy with work..

for 2024.. ill essentially start compiling candidates charts tomorrow!

[wbrocks67]

His math was off in the original, but we're now at the ~45% of 2018 by 10a

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1589997437766479872

[Zache]

His math was off in the original, but we're now at the ~45% of 2018 by 10a

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1589997437766479872

Who is this?