PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[HidingCommentary]

Have heard that Oz has taken the lead in some Dem internal polls. Not sure who conducted them.

That would be shocking, unless it was Data for Progress.

Had you said Republican internal, i'd wager that would be more believable. I'm fully expecting we get a Trafalgar and Insider Advantage poll with an Oz lead at some point in the next month.

[Morning in Atlas]

If Oz wins, it should put to rest any notion of a liberal media.

I will never forgive them if he does.

As I said before, the only way to win is to cut off their access to us. We need to start standing up against the enemy of the people and force them to cover things fairly.

[HidingCommentary]

Have heard that Oz has taken the lead in some Dem internal polls. Not sure who conducted them.

This would seem pretty surprising. I would've expected at least some R internals to maybe have him up, but we haven't seen any of those. A dem internal having Oz up would certainly be a total 180 from the public polling. If you hear anything else, please let us know!

The public polling on this race sort of came to a giant halt, though Monmouth and Suffolk both Fetterman +5/6 as the last two.

The Trafalgar poll this week will likely have Oz leading. That’s kind of an internal. It’s bizarre how little public polling we’ve had in this race. Maybe pollsters like the shiny object in GA, but this has become the critical Senate race since Warnock is looking relatively comfortable now.

Yeah, I was hoping Fabrizio/Impact would return, since the last we have of them is June and they've waded it on most other competitive races by now somewhat recently.

Could use another Muhlenberg, Fox, hell even Civiqs at this point.

I have a feeling we're about to be inundated with another cycle of Emerson and Trafalgar polls. They always seem to take up the oxygen when the other pollsters are off doing something else. 

[wbrocks67]

The other thing about this race that is so interesting is that Oz has been able to skirt away unscathed without answering many questions. The constant drumbeat of is "Fetterman being open and transparent about his health" is wild compared to the fact that Oz gets away without commenting on the national abortion ban, has not had to comment personally on the Dog story, or even the Hitler car. There's a demand of openness that is being asked of Fetterman that once again, Oz gets away with. But for Oz to answer those questions, there would have to be reporters trying to get those answers.

Oz has been behind this entire race. But have you read any stories or tweets from the national political press about his flailing campaign? Nope. I'm not sure if they're just choosing to ignore him because they don't think he'll win or what, but it's getting ridiculous.

[wbrocks67]

Pollster, you can not leave us in suspense like this! Find out all you can

We've also been inundated with GOP internals in races like WA-SEN, CO-SEN, NY-GOV, etc. I'm honestly shocked that no GOP group has released any internals with Oz up?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just don't get how any supposedly intelligent person could vote for this monster.
https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1579988067288748032

Seriously this makes him seem like a person of perhaps questionable morals.

Which is exactly what the Dem campaign should be doing.
This utterly brutal ad could make a difference in a potentially very close Senate race.
The focus groups they showed this to must have got quite an impression.

[Skill and Chance]

Honestly, that interview was a really bad look for Fetterman.  People will question his mental competence.  If his reaction time is similarly delayed at the debate, it could be a campaign-ending issue for him.

[Ferguson97]

I just don't get how any supposedly intelligent person could vote for this monster.

No intelligent person is.

[Pollster]

Pollster, you can not leave us in suspense like this! Find out all you can

We've also been inundated with GOP internals in races like WA-SEN, CO-SEN, NY-GOV, etc. I'm honestly shocked that no GOP group has released any internals with Oz up?

This is all I know right now!

Also Republican internals aren't guaranteed to be good or to show good numbers for Republicans. They're far behind Democrats on evolving.

[soundchaser]

Also Republican internals aren't guaranteed to be good or to show good numbers for Republicans. They're far behind Democrats on evolving.

This joke writes itself.

[HidingCommentary]

Honestly, that interview was a really bad look for Fetterman.  People will question his mental competence.  If his reaction time is similarly delayed at the debate, it could be a campaign-ending issue for him.

Not to sound like a hack, but i watched it this morning on NBC and thought he did fine.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After the polls released today it's pretty clear that Biden isn't at 41 percent anymore he is at 50 but IPSOS just put out 40 percent again even if he was it hasn't been a 2010 Eday because the Rs had Obamacare going against te Ds it's a Pandemic and because of Obamacare Medicare has Medicare Advantage which operates as another HMO and people need that in a Pandemic


Let's look at 2010/14 the Tea Party revolt was all about Obamacare repeal not about socialist D agenda that's why they won 60 seats the same in 1994 it was about Hillarycare and Clinton could of put it thru reconciliation

Users need to have faith in VBM Early voting what happened last time Trump declared victory  too soon like many Rs declared victory right after Hurricane IAN and now the polls are going against Rs again

[kwabbit]

Honestly, that interview was a really bad look for Fetterman.  People will question his mental competence.  If his reaction time is similarly delayed at the debate, it could be a campaign-ending issue for him.

Not to sound like a hack, but i watched it this morning on NBC and thought he did fine.

Fetterman has only had to speak for a few minutes at a time thus far. He’s either answering familiar questions about his health, for which he gives a very similar answer about becoming empathetic, or giving a brief stump speech. The debate may pose an issue because he’ll have to speak for 30 minutes total and he’ll have  to respond to more complex questions and to Oz’s attacks. Fetterman may be right that he’ll be fine in January, but voters will have current Fetterman in mind. If I were him, I’d skip the debate. A lot of downside potential, not much upside potential. Even if he does well, there’ll still be the image of him having to use accommodations.

As a side note, will Oz be closed captioned too? Oz doesn’t always annunciate well so the program might have problems with his speech.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, that interview was a really bad look for Fetterman.  People will question his mental competence.  If his reaction time is similarly delayed at the debate, it could be a campaign-ending issue for him.

How will people question his mental competence? Because he can't hear as well as he could before? Once he knows what the question is, he answers it fine. If he had some type of impairment in terms of understanding, he wouldn't even be able to answer the question after reading it.

The way that people want to use this stuff against Fetterman is just flat out gross.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, that interview was a really bad look for Fetterman.  People will question his mental competence.  If his reaction time is similarly delayed at the debate, it could be a campaign-ending issue for him.

Not to sound like a hack, but i watched it this morning on NBC and thought he did fine.

Fetterman has only had to speak for a few minutes at a time thus far. He’s either answering familiar questions about his health, for which he gives a very similar answer about becoming empathetic, or giving a brief stump speech. The debate may pose an issue because he’ll have to speak for 30 minutes total and he’ll have  to respond to more complex questions and to Oz’s attacks. Fetterman may be right that he’ll be fine in January, but voters will have current Fetterman in mind. If I were him, I’d skip the debate. A lot of downside potential, not much upside potential. Even if he does well, there’ll still be the image of him having to use accommodations.

As a side note, will Oz be closed captioned too? Oz doesn’t always annunciate well so the program might have problems with his speech.

He's done a few podcasts now that have been up to an hour long.

[wbrocks67]

Pollster, you can not leave us in suspense like this! Find out all you can

We've also been inundated with GOP internals in races like WA-SEN, CO-SEN, NY-GOV, etc. I'm honestly shocked that no GOP group has released any internals with Oz up?

This is all I know right now!

Also Republican internals aren't guaranteed to be good or to show good numbers for Republicans. They're far behind Democrats on evolving.

If you find out anything else, let us know pls. I would be surprised if Dem internals were showing *worse* #s than public polling, especially given the last week has been particularly disastrous for Oz with the puppy stuff + the Hitler car.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1579936754161053697
This poor man is a mess. NBC News hitting him hard on this.

I'm very skeptical he wins.

Ah yes, we're back on the narrative of if you have a disability you can't get a job. Funny how there's been no similar coverage of the strokes of two U.S. senators this year, or even someone like Collins who clearly has a speech impediment. Because they can still do their job at the end of the day - a disability doesn't prevent you from doing that.

John was literally upfront about having some auditory processing issues with closed captioning. So then they're going to hit him on .... having some issues that he owned up to? This is some straight up ablest sh*t. It's gross.

Even grosser is conservatives once again trying to act as if having a disability of any sort somehow portends you from holding office.

But we've seen what they're willing to do with Walker, so it's not surprising they're stooping so low here.

I am not making any comment on Fetterman's stroke in particular, but so-called "ableism" is absolutely good and relevant when it fundamentally impacts the candidate's ability to do their job. Slapping an ism or phobia label on something does not automatically make it bad.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1579936754161053697
This poor man is a mess. NBC News hitting him hard on this.

I'm very skeptical he wins.

Ah yes, we're back on the narrative of if you have a disability you can't get a job. Funny how there's been no similar coverage of the strokes of two U.S. senators this year, or even someone like Collins who clearly has a speech impediment. Because they can still do their job at the end of the day - a disability doesn't prevent you from doing that.

John was literally upfront about having some auditory processing issues with closed captioning. So then they're going to hit him on .... having some issues that he owned up to? This is some straight up ablest sh*t. It's gross.

Even grosser is conservatives once again trying to act as if having a disability of any sort somehow portends you from holding office.

But we've seen what they're willing to do with Walker, so it's not surprising they're stooping so low here.

I am not making any comment on Fetterman's stroke in particular, but so-called "ableism" is absolutely good and relevant when it fundamentally impacts the candidate's ability to do their job. Slapping an ism or phobia label on something does not automatically make it bad.

Greg Abbott can do his job. So can Duckworth. So can Collins, so can Biden. So can Lujan. Disabilities do not prevent you from being to do a job. Fetterman has some lingering hearing issues from his stroke that clearly do not affect his mental acuity - when he answers questions, he answers them fine. The insinuation among all of this is that because you have a disability that you're not fit for office.

[HidingCommentary]

Honestly, that interview was a really bad look for Fetterman.  People will question his mental competence.  If his reaction time is similarly delayed at the debate, it could be a campaign-ending issue for him.

Not to sound like a hack, but i watched it this morning on NBC and thought he did fine.

Fetterman has only had to speak for a few minutes at a time thus far. He’s either answering familiar questions about his health, for which he gives a very similar answer about becoming empathetic, or giving a brief stump speech. The debate may pose an issue because he’ll have to speak for 30 minutes total and he’ll have  to respond to more complex questions and to Oz’s attacks. Fetterman may be right that he’ll be fine in January, but voters will have current Fetterman in mind. If I were him, I’d skip the debate. A lot of downside potential, not much upside potential. Even if he does well, there’ll still be the image of him having to use accommodations.

As a side note, will Oz be closed captioned too? Oz doesn’t always annunciate well so the program might have problems with his speech.

I think the opposite which is my same argument with why Hobbs should debate Lake. A bad debate performance is likely to create less press than skipping/dropping out of a debate. Even if Fetterman is bad, the majority of voters arent going to see it. However there will be coverage of Fetterman dropping out of a debate, and it becomes a bigger issue in the closing weeks of the campaign.

I think I read Oz will be close captioned. It might be a computer although if Fetterman were smart, he'd get a professional closed captionist to type things up in real time.

[wbrocks67]

This is a microcosm of most of the press's coverage of this race. It's always thru an anti-Fetterman filter. That's not the Dem in me speaking - it's just the truth. Oz continuously gets away unscathed.

https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1580247370423758848

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1579936754161053697
This poor man is a mess. NBC News hitting him hard on this.

I'm very skeptical he wins.

Ah yes, we're back on the narrative of if you have a disability you can't get a job. Funny how there's been no similar coverage of the strokes of two U.S. senators this year, or even someone like Collins who clearly has a speech impediment. Because they can still do their job at the end of the day - a disability doesn't prevent you from doing that.

John was literally upfront about having some auditory processing issues with closed captioning. So then they're going to hit him on .... having some issues that he owned up to? This is some straight up ablest sh*t. It's gross.

Even grosser is conservatives once again trying to act as if having a disability of any sort somehow portends you from holding office.

But we've seen what they're willing to do with Walker, so it's not surprising they're stooping so low here.

I am not making any comment on Fetterman's stroke in particular, but so-called "ableism" is absolutely good and relevant when it fundamentally impacts the candidate's ability to do their job. Slapping an ism or phobia label on something does not automatically make it bad.

Greg Abbott can do his job. So can Duckworth. So can Collins, so can Biden. So can Lujan. Disabilities do not prevent you from being to do a job. Fetterman has some lingering hearing issues from his stroke that clearly do not affect his mental acuity - when he answers questions, he answers them fine. The insinuation among all of this is that because you have a disability that you're not fit for office.

It depends on the disability. If you have cognitive impairment on the level of current-year Feinstein you are not fit to serve. Calling it "ableist" to say that is not meaningful.

[GALeftist]

It depends on the disability. If you have cognitive impairment on the level of current-year Feinstein you are not fit to serve. Calling it "ableist" to say that is not meaningful.

I don't even necessarily disagree with this, but in these cases it's the responsibility of the media to do their research and actually figure out whether it is a relevant concern, but that isn't what they're doing here; they're just latching onto what is effectively a hearing issue and attempting to construct a debilitating mental condition out of that, which is patently ableist and also misleads voters who are unfamiliar with aphasia.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1579936754161053697
This poor man is a mess. NBC News hitting him hard on this.

I'm very skeptical he wins.

Ah yes, we're back on the narrative of if you have a disability you can't get a job. Funny how there's been no similar coverage of the strokes of two U.S. senators this year, or even someone like Collins who clearly has a speech impediment. Because they can still do their job at the end of the day - a disability doesn't prevent you from doing that.

John was literally upfront about having some auditory processing issues with closed captioning. So then they're going to hit him on .... having some issues that he owned up to? This is some straight up ablest sh*t. It's gross.

Even grosser is conservatives once again trying to act as if having a disability of any sort somehow portends you from holding office.

But we've seen what they're willing to do with Walker, so it's not surprising they're stooping so low here.

I am not making any comment on Fetterman's stroke in particular, but so-called "ableism" is absolutely good and relevant when it fundamentally impacts the candidate's ability to do their job. Slapping an ism or phobia label on something does not automatically make it bad.

Greg Abbott can do his job. So can Duckworth. So can Collins, so can Biden. So can Lujan. Disabilities do not prevent you from being to do a job. Fetterman has some lingering hearing issues from his stroke that clearly do not affect his mental acuity - when he answers questions, he answers them fine. The insinuation among all of this is that because you have a disability that you're not fit for office.

It depends on the disability. If you have cognitive impairment on the level of current-year Feinstein you are not fit to serve. Calling it "ableist" to say that is not meaningful.

But Fetterman doesn't have a cognitive impairment on the level of Feinstein, or even at all. He just has auditory processing issues, he's otherwise all there.

[kwabbit]

Honestly, that interview was a really bad look for Fetterman.  People will question his mental competence.  If his reaction time is similarly delayed at the debate, it could be a campaign-ending issue for him.

Not to sound like a hack, but i watched it this morning on NBC and thought he did fine.

Fetterman has only had to speak for a few minutes at a time thus far. He’s either answering familiar questions about his health, for which he gives a very similar answer about becoming empathetic, or giving a brief stump speech. The debate may pose an issue because he’ll have to speak for 30 minutes total and he’ll have  to respond to more complex questions and to Oz’s attacks. Fetterman may be right that he’ll be fine in January, but voters will have current Fetterman in mind. If I were him, I’d skip the debate. A lot of downside potential, not much upside potential. Even if he does well, there’ll still be the image of him having to use accommodations.

As a side note, will Oz be closed captioned too? Oz doesn’t always annunciate well so the program might have problems with his speech.

I think the opposite which is my same argument with why Hobbs should debate Lake. A bad debate performance is likely to create less press than skipping/dropping out of a debate. Even if Fetterman is bad, the majority of voters arent going to see it. However there will be coverage of Fetterman dropping out of a debate, and it becomes a bigger issue in the closing weeks of the campaign.

I think I read Oz will be close captioned. It might be a computer although if Fetterman were smart, he'd get a professional closed captionist to type things up in real time.

Katie Hobbs would just be boring at a debate. For her, there wouldn’t be much press because there isn’t anything compelling about watching Katie Hobbs debate.

If Fetterman does poorly because of his aphasia, I think that would hurt his campaign a lot more than if he skipped. The media will be playing any debate slip up 24/7. If he skips, then he’ll face a lot of heat but nowhere near the level as if he messed up. If Fetterman is currently leading, then he should play it safe.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1579936754161053697
This poor man is a mess. NBC News hitting him hard on this.

I'm very skeptical he wins.

Ah yes, we're back on the narrative of if you have a disability you can't get a job. Funny how there's been no similar coverage of the strokes of two U.S. senators this year, or even someone like Collins who clearly has a speech impediment. Because they can still do their job at the end of the day - a disability doesn't prevent you from doing that.

John was literally upfront about having some auditory processing issues with closed captioning. So then they're going to hit him on .... having some issues that he owned up to? This is some straight up ablest sh*t. It's gross.

Even grosser is conservatives once again trying to act as if having a disability of any sort somehow portends you from holding office.

But we've seen what they're willing to do with Walker, so it's not surprising they're stooping so low here.

I am not making any comment on Fetterman's stroke in particular, but so-called "ableism" is absolutely good and relevant when it fundamentally impacts the candidate's ability to do their job. Slapping an ism or phobia label on something does not automatically make it bad.

Greg Abbott can do his job. So can Duckworth. So can Collins, so can Biden. So can Lujan. Disabilities do not prevent you from being to do a job. Fetterman has some lingering hearing issues from his stroke that clearly do not affect his mental acuity - when he answers questions, he answers them fine. The insinuation among all of this is that because you have a disability that you're not fit for office.

It depends on the disability. If you have cognitive impairment on the level of current-year Feinstein you are not fit to serve. Calling it "ableist" to say that is not meaningful.

That's not something people who talk about ableism do in my experience. And it certainly wasn't claimed here.