PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Trafalgar would also not miss out on being "the first public poll to show Oz in the lead!". I mean, come on now. I'll happily be wrong, but I think we know what to expect.

Though if Pollster gets any more details though on those internals :eyes: I'm still intrigued.

Given what we've seen in all polling so far, Fetterman has generally outperformed heavily among Whites. Nonwhites he's usually underperforming 2018/2020 but that remains to be seen if it's just an issue with such small sample sizes.

For Oz to actually take the lead in a poll, it would probably mean Fetterman is losing that edge with White voters and Oz is getting a negligible shift with some non-white voters

Could also be like a 44-43 poll like some of the other stuff we've gotten.

[Utah Neolib]

Trafalgar releasing the Oz poll possibly this Friday would make sense.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Two weeks ago a Trafalgar poll with Oz ahead probably would have given me a heart attack. Now, I'm certain it's just going to be pure hackery. I'll laugh if they still can't manage to find him up though.

But if I may comment on the debate that's going to happen, unlike literally every other debate for Senate races this year, the Fetterman vs. Oz one could be the most consequential. Between how hyped up it's been and the alleged stakes of how Fetterman comes off, this one is certain to get the most media attention and if Fetterman could get through it without bringing any attention to his post-stroke condition, then I think he can be expected to coast until election day. I am certain that he'll beat Oz on substance, but we just need him to deprive the press of the "ailing Fetterman" headlines they are so eager to make. Granted, this assumes that Pennsylvanians even care as much as the media thinks they do. That's not necessarily a given.

[GALeftist]

Two weeks ago a Trafalgar poll with Oz ahead probably would have given me a heart attack. Now, I'm certain it's just going to be pure hackery. I'll laugh if they still can't manage to find him up though.

About that...

[wbrocks67]

This is the same woman who the AP tried to pass off as a regular voter and was actually a campaign official. Are we surprised that once again Oz is trying to scam people?

https://twitter.com/the_vello/status/1580679777710575616

[Pericles]

Republicans are counting on the cost of living getting people to vote for them, they should at least not promise to make it worse lol.

[wbrocks67]

Alright, let's get some more events in the books for the next 26 days!

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1580681219800326144

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Honestly, at this point, would it not make sense for Shapiro to start donating some of his campaign resources and outreach to Fetterman? Or local candidates?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Honestly, at this point, would it not make sense for Shapiro to start donating some of his campaign resources and outreach to Fetterman? Or local candidates?

I mean Fetterman has been running a more substantial and inspirational media campaign, so I don't know Shapiro's fundraising advantage is actually that much.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Honestly, at this point, would it not make sense for Shapiro to start donating some of his campaign resources and outreach to Fetterman? Or local candidates?

I mean Fetterman has been running a more substantial and inspirational media campaign, so I don't know Shapiro's fundraising advantage is actually that much.

From the two sources I could find immediately,

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3676215-fetterman-breaks-fundraising-record-in-latest-quarter/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pennsylvania-governor-race-josh-shapiro-doug-mastriano-fundraising/

Shapiro raised around 25m with Fetterman at 22m. So I'm not saying it would be anything crazy, but certainly at least putting resources towards more of these joint campaign efforts since his race is, dare I say it, nearly locked up.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So the Trafalgar has Fetterman still leading 47-45. Something something Oxmentum, sorry, Ozmentum

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So the Trafalgar has Fetterman still leading 47-45. Something something Oxmentum, sorry, Ozmentum

Nah it's okay.  Easy to make errors when the steaks are as high as this.

[wbrocks67]

So maybe Burns is trying to right the wrong here. Either way, this interview is a pretty bad look for Oz. I'll give him the fact that he gave props to Biden for marijuana reform (however, he would be an idiot not to given how popular an issue it is)

But he's once again asked about the comments his team made about mocking Fetterman and he essentially dodges it two times - doesn't directly address it but says he personally has said nice things about Fetterman's recovery, etc. But she keeps pushing it (rightfully so) and asks if he as a doctor would ever say those things to his patients. He looks confused and just says "no" lol

THEN he's asked about the abortion ban and once AGAIN deflects and refuses to give a yes or no answer, says it's "up to the states" (we all know this is a cop-out)

Then Burns says that Fetterman gave her 30 minutes but Oz only could be bothered to give them 15 (probably why the interview appears to be some awkward backroom where they're both standing)

https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1580887254838300673

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Yeah, what evidence were we basing that "Trafalgar showing Oz leading" meme off of? Just that Trafalgar is a contrarian?

Alright, let's get some more events in the books for the next 26 days!

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1580681219800326144

Ooooo, do we know where?

[wbrocks67]

All the caveats of focus groups, but this was interesting

Axios: These voters' disappointment with Biden and the economy, and rising anxiety about crime, aren't persuading them to embrace the Republicans at the top of their state's ticket.

All 13 participants voted for former President Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The panels included six registered Republicans, six Democrats and one independent.

Nine of the 13 participants favored the Democratic nominee for the open Senate seat, John Fetterman, while two favored Republican Mehmet Oz. Two said they'd back neither.

In the governor's race, eight of 13 preferred Democrat Josh Shapiro, while just one backed Republican Doug Mastriano.

Four said they knew they wouldn't back Mastriano — a Trump-endorsed candidate who has come under fire for antisemitic signaling — but were undecided about what they would do.

While specific issues matter to these Pennsylvania swing voters, a larger consideration seems to be candidate character.

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/14/pennsylvania-midterms-swing-voters-focus-group?utm_campaign=editorial&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

In this focus group, Fetterman actually has locked down more people than Shapiro, which is interesting given we've seen the opposite in polls lol.

[Not Me, Us]

Just got the email that my absentee ballot has been received by the county elections office, which is a big relief, I always get paranoid that my ballot is gonna get lost in the mail or something. Voted straight ticket D of course.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, what evidence were we basing that "Trafalgar showing Oz leading" meme off of? Just that Trafalgar is a contrarian?

Alright, let's get some more events in the books for the next 26 days!

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1580681219800326144

Ooooo, do we know where?

Doesn't seem to be any official details yet, but I'm curious too!

[citizenZ]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/12/politics/john-fetterman-medical-records-pennsylvania-senate-race/index.html

Media still hammering him. Chris Matthews asked yesterday on MSNBC whether or not Fetterman would be able to "debate on the Senate floor".

This is an albatross around his neck, despite the slim optimism on this forum. Reminds me a bit of Andrew Gillum in 2018.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/12/politics/john-fetterman-medical-records-pennsylvania-senate-race/index.html

Media still hammering him. Chris Matthews asked yesterday on MSNBC whether or not Fetterman would be able to "debate on the Senate floor".

This is an albatross around his neck, despite the slim optimism on this forum. Reminds me a bit of Andrew Gillum in 2018.

Chris Matthews also compared Bernie Sanders winning the Nevada Caucus to the Nazis invading France.

[Morning in Atlas]

Chris Matthews also loves Dr. Oz.

[wbrocks67]

Was funny, watching 6ABC's 4:30pm news yesterday while I was in the gym. They actually coincidentally did a story on political ads this cycle, and some study that tells people most of the info you're getting from political ads isn't great, and you should find your information elsewhere, etc.

They then go into the Oz-Jim Gardner ad as an example. They of course did it in a respectable, nonpartisan way, but said how this is a great example because not only did Jim Gardner not approve (or have to approve) the ad, but that they used a fake chyron in the ad that 6ABC never ran. Was pretty proud that they showcased that (as they should, since Oz is faking stuff to make it look like it was something 6ABC actually ran)

The irony of it all was that the next commercial break right after... that same Oz ad ran lmao.

Was only watching for a short time, but I saw a Chrissy Houlahan ad, an Andy Kim ad, that Oz ad, and then one pro-Lisa Scheller and anti-Scheller ad.

[wbrocks67]

Smart.

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1580926387409817601

[Person Man]

Was funny, watching 6ABC's 4:30pm news yesterday while I was in the gym. They actually coincidentally did a story on political ads this cycle, and some study that tells people most of the info you're getting from political ads isn't great, and you should find your information elsewhere, etc.

They then go into the Oz-Jim Gardner ad as an example. They of course did it in a respectable, nonpartisan way, but said how this is a great example because not only did Jim Gardner not approve (or have to approve) the ad, but that they used a fake chyron in the ad that 6ABC never ran. Was pretty proud that they showcased that (as they should, since Oz is faking stuff to make it look like it was something 6ABC actually ran)

The irony of it all was that the next commercial break right after... that same Oz ad ran lmao.

Was only watching for a short time, but I saw a Chrissy Houlahan ad, an Andy Kim ad, that Oz ad, and then one pro-Lisa Scheller and anti-Scheller ad.

So the situation is backfiring almost perfectly.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Was funny, watching 6ABC's 4:30pm news yesterday while I was in the gym. They actually coincidentally did a story on political ads this cycle, and some study that tells people most of the info you're getting from political ads isn't great, and you should find your information elsewhere, etc.

They then go into the Oz-Jim Gardner ad as an example. They of course did it in a respectable, nonpartisan way, but said how this is a great example because not only did Jim Gardner not approve (or have to approve) the ad, but that they used a fake chyron in the ad that 6ABC never ran. Was pretty proud that they showcased that (as they should, since Oz is faking stuff to make it look like it was something 6ABC actually ran)

The irony of it all was that the next commercial break right after... that same Oz ad ran lmao.

Was only watching for a short time, but I saw a Chrissy Houlahan ad, an Andy Kim ad, that Oz ad, and then one pro-Lisa Scheller and anti-Scheller ad.

So the situation is backfiring almost perfectly.

Dark Brandon sends his regards.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1580946570438377472