PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1547731213896413184

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1547731213896413184

rEpUbLiCaNs ArE gEtTiNg GoOd aT cOmEdY aNd ThE lEfT iS wOrRiEd

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

These memes are going to have zero electorall impact whatsoever.

[Yoda]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

No, Oz Derangement Syndrome (which, c'mon now, the "derangement syndrome" bit stopped being clever many election cycles ago) would be taking Oz's perfectly valid message and twisting it into something sinister. 

The problem is that Oz's campaign doesn't really have a message other than "I'm a Republican, I'm working for you."  He's not really conveying how he would be good for Pennsylvania and there's lots of things working against him to that effect. 

Fetterman isn't anywhere near a lock and with this social media blitz -- hoo boy, he's gonna have egg on his face if he loses in November.  Frankly, I think some of his antics have been a little bit...well, not my style, but anyway. 

In any case, you're not an idiot, Politician.  Oz is not a good candidate.  I still have him winning, but there's nothing that indicates he was the best that the GOP had to offer. 

The problem I have with this thread is how it's been beaten into the ground. We get it, of course Oz is a horrible candidate, now can we move on and not just circlejerk about when Fetterman owns him on Twitter?

You honestly can't hold it against us when the Fetterman campaign keeps putting out genius stuff like the Snooki Cameo. Just pure gold. If we're circle jerking to it it's b/c it's so funny it merits a circle jerk.

[LabourJersey]

This thread is frankly the epitome of the “candidate quality” meme. Now Oz could lose, but it’d have more to do with Republicans having an underperforming election performance than any vague things about “appeal” or whatever. Also I’m not convinced a one dimensional campaign about Oz’s carpetbagging is exactly going to be successful for the Democrats. Lastly, Democrats are going to have to eventually face the attacks that many of Fetterman’s views are outside of the mainstream and letting these attacks just go unanswered while Republicans refine how they plan to present them is not exactly a wise strategy. I’d put this on the border of Tilt and Lean R, but if Republicans win the GCB by 4 or 5, they’re almost certainly winning here.

I don't think Fetterman's actual campaigned is as one-dimensional as you claim (his online campaign may seem that, but that's just one part of the whole campaign). But aside from that, why do you think carpetbagging won't hurt Oz that much? Do you just think partisanship is so strong that people don't care as much about actual home state ties?

Cause I would agree that it's not campaign-ending, but Oz's carpetbagging is shameless to a degree that it warrants all of the mockery coming his way.

[Morning in Atlas]

This thread is frankly the epitome of the “candidate quality” meme. Now Oz could lose, but it’d have more to do with Republicans having an underperforming election performance than any vague things about “appeal” or whatever. Also I’m not convinced a one dimensional campaign about Oz’s carpetbagging is exactly going to be successful for the Democrats. Lastly, Democrats are going to have to eventually face the attacks that many of Fetterman’s views are outside of the mainstream and letting these attacks just go unanswered while Republicans refine how they plan to present them is not exactly a wise strategy. I’d put this on the border of Tilt and Lean R, but if Republicans win the GCB by 4 or 5, they’re almost certainly winning here.

Conor Lamb lost the primary by 30 points

[wbrocks67]

This thread is frankly the epitome of the “candidate quality” meme. Now Oz could lose, but it’d have more to do with Republicans having an underperforming election performance than any vague things about “appeal” or whatever. Also I’m not convinced a one dimensional campaign about Oz’s carpetbagging is exactly going to be successful for the Democrats. Lastly, Democrats are going to have to eventually face the attacks that many of Fetterman’s views are outside of the mainstream and letting these attacks just go unanswered while Republicans refine how they plan to present them is not exactly a wise strategy. I’d put this on the border of Tilt and Lean R, but if Republicans win the GCB by 4 or 5, they’re almost certainly winning here.

Not really, though. Which Fetterman views are that outside of the mainstream? I would argue and counter that Oz has more extreme "views" at this point, especially on issues like abortion.

[Sir Mohamed]

This thread is frankly the epitome of the “candidate quality” meme. Now Oz could lose, but it’d have more to do with Republicans having an underperforming election performance than any vague things about “appeal” or whatever. Also I’m not convinced a one dimensional campaign about Oz’s carpetbagging is exactly going to be successful for the Democrats. Lastly, Democrats are going to have to eventually face the attacks that many of Fetterman’s views are outside of the mainstream and letting these attacks just go unanswered while Republicans refine how they plan to present them is not exactly a wise strategy. I’d put this on the border of Tilt and Lean R, but if Republicans win the GCB by 4 or 5, they’re almost certainly winning here.

Not really, though. Which Fetterman views are that outside of the mainstream? I would argue and counter that Oz has more extreme "views" at this point, especially on issues like abortion.

Sure, but perception often is more relevant than actual positions. Remember that in 2016 HRC was somehow seen as the "more extreme" candidate than Trump?

That said, I'm not arguing Fetterman is a weak candidate or running a medicore campaign; the opposite is true while Oz is bad candidate running a joke campaign (so far). And if latter wins without turning his campaign around, it almost solely be due to national environment.

[GALeftist]

FWIW I do think that Oz will probably suffer a non-negligible carpetbagging penalty but also that it wouldn't be smart to make that the focus of the campaign. I don't think that's what's happening with Fetterman, though. The real ads I've seen (e.g. "Labels") mostly focus on his connection to Braddock and desire to help "left-behind" areas, which I think is the smarter play since everyone knows Oz isn't from Pennsylvania, and even the attack ads (e.g. "Dude") talk about Oz's being a weirdo Hollywood rich guy just as much as his being from New Jersey – in fact, it almost uses the North Jersey thing as a symptom of that broader critique. As long as the "Oz is from New Jersey lol" is just a Twitter meme and not the focus of the campaign, I think it's fine. Might even be beneficial if Oz unwisely actually spends time defending his being a "real Pennsylvanian" or whatever. If the Fetterman campaign starts buying ads that focus on Oz being from New Jersey specifically rather than his being an out-of-touch elite more broadly, then I'll change my tune.

Re: Chuck Grassley, I don't like the guy, but he's easily the best poaster in Congress. To compare him to Oz is an insult. It's like comparing my 3rd grade duck sculpture to Michelangelo's David.

[S019]

This thread is frankly the epitome of the “candidate quality” meme. Now Oz could lose, but it’d have more to do with Republicans having an underperforming election performance than any vague things about “appeal” or whatever. Also I’m not convinced a one dimensional campaign about Oz’s carpetbagging is exactly going to be successful for the Democrats. Lastly, Democrats are going to have to eventually face the attacks that many of Fetterman’s views are outside of the mainstream and letting these attacks just go unanswered while Republicans refine how they plan to present them is not exactly a wise strategy. I’d put this on the border of Tilt and Lean R, but if Republicans win the GCB by 4 or 5, they’re almost certainly winning here.

Not really, though. Which Fetterman views are that outside of the mainstream? I would argue and counter that Oz has more extreme "views" at this point, especially on issues like abortion.

Well Oz’s ad does a good job of pointing this out, but his views on crime and healthcare, especially. Also sometimes as Sir Mohamed said the truth doesn’t matter, only what can be seen as the truth does. It doesn’t matter whether or not Fetterman supports say higher taxes on the middle class, because his political position makes it likelier that voters are more prone to believing that he does, even if it is not true.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman said he will return to campaign trail after August recess so the ad that Oz is running won't have a long lasting effect

PA is 50 WI 51 GA runoffs  52 OH 53 open NC 54 open and FL 55 and LA etc


To think Beasley, Ryan and Demings do t stand a chance whom maximize the Blk and Brown and female vote is Hilarious even in this Environment and if Nixon wins the second place vote not Chambers he can beat Kennedy in a Dec Runoff if Kennedy gets only 49 Chambers will have a Difficult time winning a Dec Runoff but Warnock and Abrams can win a Jan Runoff if Kemp also fails to get past 49, that's why I put LA at 56

[Pink Panther]

   I have been thinking about this since the primaries, and I believe that the problem that is plaguing Oz the most is not his practicing of Islam, his dual-citizenship, his residency in NJ, his quackery(don't get me wrong, these are still issues for Oz, and they are hurting him, but not as much as some on the internet or in media have tried to peddle), but in fact it's how he just comes off as extremely slimy, pandering, and out-of-touch. 
     When he first announced his campaign, I thought he would be a boom or bust candidate, and I thought he would be similar to Trump 2016 in a sense, as in outsiders who were successful buisnessman and media personalities who would be able to ride anger at Washington to victory. But as time goes on, the more this comparison turns out to be untrue. Firstly, the dynamics of those races are obviously different, as Trump was running in all 50 states and Oz in just one, as messaging and campaigning are vastly different. But more importantly, Trump came in at a time when the GOP didn't really have someone like him, with his rhetoric and style. As for Oz, he had to deal with someone like Barnette in the race, and yeah, Trump had Cruz and other people, but Trump just came off as more unique to them and again, competed in more than just one state, unlike Oz, where his failure to coalesce a larger amount of the conservative/populist base nearly cost him the nomination. And lastly, Trump just came off as more relatable and trustworthy with his charisma and larger-than-life personality, which is simply not the same for Oz, especially as he's facing off against John Fetterman, not Hillary Clinton.
    It's clear that Oz is shaping up to be a disaster in a race Republicans should be favored in. I'm not saying that he will definitely lose, there is still a little less than four months out from the election, and Oz could turn his campaign around. And maybe the national environment could get even better for the GOP. However, from what I have seen in the Oz campaign so far, I'm not sure he can turn it around. Yeah, he comes off as smarter and more professional than Herschel Walker, for example, but atleast Walker comes off as earnest in a way. Oz does not have that at all. And being seen as untrustworthy and unrelatable by a significant portion of your base and general electorate might be the biggest reason why Oz may lose in November despite other results in the country.

[wbrocks67]

I would agree that one of Oz's worst qualities is that he comes off severely patronizing, out of touch, and pandering to whatever audience he's in front of. Some politicans can be slicker about this, but Oz just seems... really bad at all of this and comes off so disingenuous where at least Trump made his voters believe it. Oz is not the same caliber.

As for the attacks... Oz and Republicans have been attacking Fetterman as a "socialist Bernie Sanders extremist" and it.... has not worked up to this point. This is where I'm getting a disconnect here - it's already been tried on Fetterman and the attacks are simply not landing. He is not easily definable with the AOC super left wing of the party.

This is the same thing I said in the primary - Fetterman is very liberal but he doesn't *come off* that way, which is kind of the genius of his personality. Even when he has more liberal or farther left views on something, he's able to communicate them in a way that seems more 'common sense' than 'extremist', if that makes sense.

[The Dowager Mod]

 
 https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1548034906277613570

[GALeftist]

While we're talking about campaign fixations, though, I'd argue that Oz's fixation on tying Fetterman to Bernie Sanders is even more omnipresent and even more befuddling than the New Jersey thing. There is a much better Democrat to tie Fetterman to; his name is Joe Biden. I'd imagine that Sanders is substantially more popular in Pennsylvania than Biden right now, actually. You'd never know that from Oz's campaign, though; every single ad links him to Sanders.

[wesmoorenerd]

 https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1548034906277613570

my god oz is so bad at this

I think the fact that Oz is so susceptible to these easy dunks is less of a decisive factor in itself and more of a sign that the people running his campaign have deeply, deeply questionable political instincts and don't exactly know how to project a good image to the public

[Lief 🗽]

Dr. Oz trying to prove his working class Pennsylvanian bonafides by visiting the crappy tourist places to get cheesesteaks is so funny.

[wbrocks67]

While we're talking about campaign fixations, though, I'd argue that Oz's fixation on tying Fetterman to Bernie Sanders is even more omnipresent and even more befuddling than the New Jersey thing. There is a much better Democrat to tie Fetterman to; his name is Joe Biden. I'd imagine that Sanders is substantially more popular in Pennsylvania than Biden right now, actually. You'd never know that from Oz's campaign, though; every single ad links him to Sanders.

this, and the fact that it's coming off like his campaign just has a generic tweet generator or something. half his tweets are literally just him saying "john fetterman is bad! bernie sanders socialist!" in different forms. they're not even interesting.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Going to bookmark this thread when Oz wins. The Oz Derangement Syndrome is real.

No, Oz Derangement Syndrome (which, c'mon now, the "derangement syndrome" bit stopped being clever many election cycles ago) would be taking Oz's perfectly valid message and twisting it into something sinister.  

The problem is that Oz's campaign doesn't really have a message other than "I'm a Republican, I'm working for you."  He's not really conveying how he would be good for Pennsylvania and there's lots of things working against him to that effect.  

Fetterman isn't anywhere near a lock and with this social media blitz -- hoo boy, he's gonna have egg on his face if he loses in November.  Frankly, I think some of his antics have been a little bit...well, not my style, but anyway.  

In any case: you're not an idiot, Politician.  I refuse to believe that you consider Oz a good candidate.  I still have him winning, but there's nothing that indicates he was the best that the GOP had to offer.  

Agreed, serious question. Can we consider having one thread for real updates and one thread for posting Fetterman memes every 5 minutes? This is getting beyond the scope of what’s interesting and frankly what’s useful

[OSR stands with Israel]

I now do wish McCormick won the primary and he may have without polls showing Barnette in 2nd lol.

[Gracile]

Agreed, serious question. Can we consider having one thread for real updates and one thread for posting Fetterman memes every 5 minutes? This is getting beyond the scope of what’s interesting and frankly what’s useful

No, I don't see a point in having a separate thread for that, as I'm generally against posting a large share of campaign news outside of consolidated megathreads. Furthermore, social media posts from candidates and the discussion that it leads to (no matter how silly) are "real updates" that are firmly within the scope of this thread.

[Morning in Atlas]

This is even more pathetic than Lamb setting up a whole ass photoshoot at Pat's.

[Morning in Atlas]

It's not even like Oz is running from his beach house in South Jersey. For all the talk about Scott Brown's carpetbagging in 2014, he did fairly well in the border counties. They didn't really care about his carpetbagging because many of them were also Massachusetts transplants.

I could see this not mattering if Oz had actual ties to the Philly area, but this is a man who can literally see New York from his house.

[The Dowager Mod]

Owned by a Cow, moooooo!
https://twitter.com/DevinCow/status/1548103516954058768

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/PatsSteaks/status/1548064449797312515

LMFAOOOOO