Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

With all the talk of low NOVA turnout, looks like Loudoun came thru on Saturday:

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1720981384511000892

[Umengus]

72 % of 2021 is weak. Isn't it ?

[Skill and Chance]

With all the talk of low NOVA turnout, looks like Loudoun came thru on Saturday:

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1720981384511000892

Over 20% of the total statewide in-person early vote happened in the final 2 days this Friday and Saturday.  During this weekend, NOVA also finally broke out above the statewide average in early voting per capita.  Suggestive of a return to the pre-pandemic pattern (in states that had EV open to everyone back then, unlike VA) where the latest EV/mail is the most Dem?

[Birdish]

72 % of 2021 is weak. Isn't it ?

I don't have prior years to look back on, but I'd guess probably not. 2021 had a big banner Governors race to drive up turnout. Without it, turnout is going to be lower.

[Skill and Chance]

72 % of 2021 is weak. Isn't it ?

I don't have prior years to look back on, but I'd guess probably not. 2021 had a big banner Governors race to drive up turnout. Without it, turnout is going to be lower.

Difficult to make a fair comparison looking just at EV because the last "off-year midterm cycle" was in 2019, just before no-excuse EV was implemented.  However, looking at total turnout, 2019 (HoD/State Senate only) was 2.3M and 2021 (Governorship/LG/AG/HoD) was 3.3M.  So the last "off-year midterm" turnout was 69% of the last governor's election, meaning 72% for this one would be more or less in line with recent history.

[Nyvin]

72 % of 2021 is weak. Isn't it ?

I don't have prior years to look back on, but I'd guess probably not. 2021 had a big banner Governors race to drive up turnout. Without it, turnout is going to be lower.

Also in 2021 COVID was still kinda sorta a thing and people opted more for mail in or early voting to avoid crowds.

[Skill and Chance]

72 % of 2021 is weak. Isn't it ?

I don't have prior years to look back on, but I'd guess probably not. 2021 had a big banner Governors race to drive up turnout. Without it, turnout is going to be lower.

Also in 2021 COVID was still kinda sorta a thing and people opted more for mail in or early voting to avoid crowds.

Yes, and I think this is also reflected in the fact that the IPEV has gotten more and more concentrated at the very end of the EV period with each year we move away from COVID vs. more evenly spread out across several weeks.  Also, during COVID, the earliest EV was the most D and the the latest EV (especially election day VBM drop-offs) was generally the most R.  By 2022, that already seemed to have reverted back to the traditional pattern, including in VA.

On the other hand, the % of the total EV that is VBM is likely to be higher this year than in 2021 or 2022.  But that's mainly due to the overall decline in in-person EV turnout and does depend somewhat on ballots that are still in the mail (can arrive by the Monday after the election and still be counted this year) or will be dropped off day-of. 

[wbrocks67]

72 % of 2021 is weak. Isn't it ?

There's also not many competitive races though, so 72% of 2021 with a high profile statewide governor race is pretty great imo.

[Skill and Chance]

72 % of 2021 is weak. Isn't it ?

There's also not many competitive races though, so 72% of 2021 with a high profile statewide governor race is pretty great imo.

Yes, also the 2021 governor turnout was the highest ever by a wide margin.  2017 was 2.6M, for example, just 79% of the record 2021 turnout.  2013 was only 2.2M, 67% of the 2021 record! On a statewide scale, VA has not had dramatic population growth in the past 10 years.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1721185913445732606

Does not look good at all for Monty Mason in SD-24.  The college town of Williamsburg is turning out, but it's getting swamped by Poquoson, which is the single most R municipality east of the mountains.   SD-17 also looks troubling for D's as expected with the most heavily D municipalities underperforming 2022 the most.

However, Joel Griffin in SD-27 should be reasonably pleased by the R arm of the district in Spotsylvania lagging the other 2 localities significantly. 


In the HoD, HD-82 looks really good for R's and HD-41 (previously considered likely R) looks surprisingly good for D's with the college town dramatically overperforming the rurals.   Will it be enough?  IDK.

[SnowLabrador]

If the Republicans get a trifecta in Virginia, Biden is done in 2024. It's not looking good for the blue team.

[Person Man]

If the Republicans get a trifecta in Virginia, Biden is done in 2024. It's not looking good for the blue team.

If Republicans get a trifecta, 2024 starts off Lean Republican nationally and probably toss-up in Virginia but it’s unlikely.

[Umengus]

If the Republicans get a trifecta in Virginia, Biden is done in 2024. It's not looking good for the blue team.

If Republicans get a trifecta, 2024 starts off Lean Republican nationally and probably toss-up in Virginia but it’s unlikely.

VA is not going to vote for trump.

[Person Man]

If the Republicans get a trifecta in Virginia, Biden is done in 2024. It's not looking good for the blue team.

If Republicans get a trifecta, 2024 starts off Lean Republican nationally and probably toss-up in Virginia but it’s unlikely.

VA is not going to vote for trump.

Maybe not in the end, but if things are really that bad and don’t get any better it might. But you’re correct. I don’t think that’s going to pass so Virginia will not vote for Trump.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1721185913445732606

Does not look good at all for Monty Mason in SD-24.  The college town of Williamsburg is turning out, but it's getting swamped by Poquoson, which is the single most R municipality east of the mountains.   SD-17 also looks troubling for D's as expected with the most heavily D municipalities underperforming 2022 the most.

However, Joel Griffin in SD-27 should be reasonably pleased by the R arm of the district in Spotsylvania lagging the other 2 localities significantly. 


In the HoD, HD-82 looks really good for R's and HD-41 (previously considered likely R) looks surprisingly good for D's with the college town dramatically overperforming the rurals.   Will it be enough?  IDK.

Doesn't look good for the D in SD-24, but SD-17 really isn't that bad, the Republican stronghold of Isle of Wight is also having lower turnout than 2022 as well.

For SD-24 Poquoson isn't enough to carry the district on it's own (12k people total out of a district of 215k),  the Republicans need to get a good margin out of York and not get blown out in Newport News.

[It’s so Joever]

If the Republicans get a trifecta in Virginia, Biden is done in 2024. It's not looking good for the blue team.

If Republicans get a trifecta, 2024 starts off Lean Republican nationally and probably toss-up in Virginia but it’s unlikely.

VA is not going to vote for trump.

Watch and wait.

[roxas11]

If the Republicans get a trifecta in Virginia, Biden is done in 2024. It's not looking good for the blue team.

If Republicans get a trifecta, 2024 starts off Lean Republican nationally and probably toss-up in Virginia but it’s unlikely.

VA is not going to vote for trump.

Watch and wait.

you can watch and wait all you want, but the fact is Trump could not even win Virginia in 2016 and at that time he was not even as hated or as unpopular as as he currently is today

Maybe a different Republican candidate would have a shot at winning Virginia but not trump. While It's clear that Virginia voters do not hate the GOP overall since they voted for Glenn youngkin for governor they really dont like Trump at all and has voted against him every time his name is on the ballot and I don't think is going to change in 2024

[The Mikado]

Do we have final statewide EV totals?

[wbrocks67]

I'm no VA expert, but still seems very wrong to say "oh not looking good for ___ in ____" given that it's clear that there will still be an extremely healthy election day vote this year. And I say that whether it's a D or R race. Turnout in this situation can only take you very far given that we seem to be reverting back to a major ED vote in a state like VA.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1721185913445732606

Does not look good at all for Monty Mason in SD-24.  The college town of Williamsburg is turning out, but it's getting swamped by Poquoson, which is the single most R municipality east of the mountains.   SD-17 also looks troubling for D's as expected with the most heavily D municipalities underperforming 2022 the most.

However, Joel Griffin in SD-27 should be reasonably pleased by the R arm of the district in Spotsylvania lagging the other 2 localities significantly. 


In the HoD, HD-82 looks really good for R's and HD-41 (previously considered likely R) looks surprisingly good for D's with the college town dramatically overperforming the rurals.   Will it be enough?  IDK.

Doesn't look good for the D in SD-24, but SD-17 really isn't that bad, the Republican stronghold of Isle of Wight is also having lower turnout than 2022 as well.

For SD-24 Poquoson isn't enough to carry the district on it's own (12k people total out of a district of 215k),  the Republicans need to get a good margin out of York and not get blown out in Newport News.

Yes, that's fair.  York has been less of an R blowout in recent history (actually close-ish in 2020).  Mason needs that trend to continue. 

And there's also the possibility that this EV is just 25% or less of the total and tells us next to nothing.  2022 looked more R than 2021 in EV.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Imagine if republicans get a trifecta in VA while losing the KY and MS gubernatorial races . Would Be crazy lol

[Person Man]

Imagine if republicans get a trifecta in VA while losing the KY and MS gubernatorial races . Would Be crazy lol

What would be the emerging narrative? Maybe that so long as abortion isn’t meaningfully discussed or pols respect that it will be a right in half the country and a crime in the other half, politics are moving back to local issues.

Especially if Ohio ends up approving everything up and down.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Imagine if republicans get a trifecta in VA while losing the KY and MS gubernatorial races . Would Be crazy lol

What would be the emerging narrative? Maybe that so long as abortion isn’t meaningfully discussed or pols respect that it will be a right in half the country and a crime in the other half, politics are moving back to local issues.

Especially if Ohio ends up approving everything up and down.

The funniest possible result tomorrow would be for both houses to flip in opposite directions, while both the KY and MS governorships flip.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Imagine if republicans get a trifecta in VA while losing the KY and MS gubernatorial races . Would Be crazy lol

What would be the emerging narrative? Maybe that so long as abortion isn’t meaningfully discussed or pols respect that it will be a right in half the country and a crime in the other half, politics are moving back to local issues.

Especially if Ohio ends up approving everything up and down.

The funniest possible result tomorrow would be for both houses to flip in opposite directions, while both the KY and MS governorships flip.

And if Ohio votes for the abortion amendment, but marijuana.

[wbrocks67]

co/efficient (R) once again has a tie

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1721558988209185074