Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Nyvin]

The VAGOP just can't catch a break, lol.   What a mess.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1369046047037616129

[Nyvin]

Right now it seems like a guaranteed D hold, but that could still change.

When one of the biggest questions going in is whether or not Chesterfield County votes GOP, this is well on its way to becoming a rather boring race.

Margins may be closer than 2017, but no way do I see the outcome changing (And yes I'm aware Carter/Fairfax have a non-insignificant chance of being nominated).

Chesterfield County is almost certainly going to vote for the Republican candidate. The question is by how much.

Chesterfield voted for Biden/Warner by 7, it will not vote Republican.

7 points isn't that much of a margin to make up. It's certainly possible, although I doubt it'll happen. If there is suburban reversion, I would think it's more likely to happen near Richmond than in NoVA.

Well Henrico County is more Democratic slightly than Loudoun or Prince William in most elections and I dont believe there is a county wide Republican in Henrico.

I may have been to dramatic in saying that Chesterfield will vote for the GOP candidate. But the GOP is favored slightly there in November.

I have seen Chesterfield County compared to St. Charles County Mo. I strongly disagree with that comparison. Chesterfield is nearly 30% black and is more educated.

Even Northam won Chesterfield in 2017 by half a point,  and the trends have certainly not gotten any better for Republicans there over the past 4 years.   It's gone for the GOP.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1404116691362123776

D+1 for VA HoD is a bit worrying actually.  Interesting Mcauliffe does the worst of the three.

[Nyvin]

Youngkin says he can't share his views on abortion since they wouldn't win the independent voters support that he needs.   
https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/1412921354446200836?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

In other words he's hiding his views since he knows they're unpopular in the state.

[Nyvin]

Really impressive

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCKoREtKurY&feature=emb_title

Confusing ad actually,  McAuliffe already won the primary.  Why would tying him to Trump help Youngkin?  Youngkin is putting out ads every minute about how much Trump loves him.   What's the aim here?

[Nyvin]

Is Youngkin actually going to win this?  wtf

[Nyvin]

If Youngkin wins, it'll be almost entirely thanks to low turnout in the Tidewater area.

[Nyvin]

I'm reading the Loudoun votes are E-day and not early/mail.

[Nyvin]

Establishment Democrats suck.

[Nyvin]

Pretty sure we can confidently say Democrats will lose Congress in 2022 barring some major catastrophe.

[Nyvin]

How does the VA state house election look?  I assume GOP should recapture the majority.

Near certain R majority.

[Nyvin]

It’s just not CRT but a backlash to the national dem agenda in general . VA while a blue state isn’t that blue like say OR

It's not like Republicans have anything to run on themselves other than "stop the libs!"

[Nyvin]

This really proves Republicans have literally nothing to fear from expanding voter access.   Virginia enacted AVR, expanded early in person voting and made absentee voting no excuse, along with a host of other initiatives (drop off locations, sunday voting, etc) and the Republicans still won without trouble.

The GOP's obsession with voter suppression is really pointless IMO.   It worked back in the Pre-Trump days, now it's useless for them.

[Nyvin]

Something democrats don’t get is : Responding to the CRT debate by saying but it isn’t taught in public schools is ok if it isn’t then why are you guys getting so worked up by opposing candidates saying they will ban it . If it isn’t being taught than that ban shouldn’t change a thing right .

What is there to ban?   You want to erase certain history lessons or something?  It's not like CRT is a uniform textualized program outside of maybe law school. 

[Nyvin]

Democrats should just pass a "No Critical Race Theory in Public Schools Act" and spend a few million highlighting it in white suburban battleground districts honestly. It wouldn't actually do anything policy-wise, takes the issue off the table politically, and is not something the Democratic base cares about en masse.

"CRT" is more Republican propaganda at this point than anything Democrats are pushing for.   

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455709057185107970

HD28 was just called for another pickup.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1455711580096634884

This was completely preventable if the Democrats hadn't moronically passed the redistricting commission.

The maps weren't redrawn due to the census delay.

[Nyvin]

Louise Lucas leading in SD-18, yuck.

[Nyvin]

The Dominion-backed candidates aren't doing well.   They lost SD-13, most likely lost SD-33, and could lose SD-11.

Edit - Nvm, looks like Deeds won SD-11.

[Nyvin]

Joe Morrissey, John Edwards, and Chap Petersen all being gone next year will definitely move the chamber to the left if Dems win a majority in November.

They were probably the three most moderate/right wing senators in the D caucus.

[Nyvin]

Looking at the map, I don't think Petersen is 100% done. I think it'll come down to Falls Church. If he wins, it will be close though. I estimate Salim has a 2/3 chance.

If it's down to Falls Church, he's probably done for.

[Nyvin]

I just added some info.  I think these results call into question whether the State Senate will actually be easier for Dems than the HoD.  Not so much because of the Petersen and Barker seats.  Those are >60% McAuliffe and would probably auto-elect any Dem not named Joe Morrisey in the general.  It's not like they nominated a lifelong professional activist in SD-31 (the most likely decisive seat in western Loudoun).  However, if Guzman actually wins SD-29 over incumbent McPike (there is a lot of vote left to count), that would be more concerning.  Guzman introduced a bill last year to revoke parental rights for parents who refuse to affirm their child's gender identity.  That's not a 100% safe seat and it's also the kind of place that is likely way more Dem than socially liberal.  

All of the Tilt R narrow Biden->Youngkin districts got the strongest Republican nominee tonight, so I don't see any freebies on the map for Dems elsewhere.    

What about Joel Griffin vs Tara Durant in SD-27?

[Nyvin]

Chap Petersen probably was just too moderate for a district like SD-37 and was coasting on hometown appeal.   Redistricting was probably going to screw him over no matter what.

[Nyvin]

Russet Perry seems like a great candidate for SD-31 though, so the chances of a D majority are pretty good saying they win that and SD-16.

[Nyvin]

If House Republicans are actually stupid enough to let the shutdown go on for two weeks, then the VA House and Senate are both Safe D.

[Nyvin]

This looks really great for HD-82 .  It probably helps that so much of the Dem vote here is concentrated in Petersburg, it probably makes canvassing/campaigning a lot easier.  That and the Republican vote being overwhelmingly low turnout rural whites both work out to advantage the D's.   Kimberly Adams seems like a fierce campaigner too.

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717688670793179424