Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Gass3268]

I think shutdown news is pertinent here:

https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1707820456424698309?s=20

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Both chambers are Safe D with a shutdown. Russet Perry in particular is probably cheering for the shutdown.

[Skill and Chance]

Both chambers are Safe D with a shutdown. Russet Perry in particular is probably cheering for the shutdown.

I don't think it makes the HoD Safe D, but it takes the Senate completely off the table between the outer western D.C. suburbs swing seat and the outer southern D.C. suburbs swing seat.  HoD will be decided in downstate college towns and majority-minoriy seats that probably aren't that excited about a shutdown either way.

[LabourJersey]

Both chambers are Safe D with a shutdown. Russet Perry in particular is probably cheering for the shutdown.

I don't think it makes the HoD Safe D, but it takes the Senate completely off the table between the outer western D.C. suburbs swing seat and the outer southern D.C. suburbs swing seat.  HoD will be decided in downstate college towns and majority-minoriy seats that probably aren't that excited about a shutdown either way.

If Democrats win the two competitive Prince William Seats (21 and 22), wouldn't that make the Democrats favored to win the House of Delegates? My math could be wrong but my impression was those two were close to be tipping point seats.

[Skill and Chance]

Both chambers are Safe D with a shutdown. Russet Perry in particular is probably cheering for the shutdown.

I don't think it makes the HoD Safe D, but it takes the Senate completely off the table between the outer western D.C. suburbs swing seat and the outer southern D.C. suburbs swing seat.  HoD will be decided in downstate college towns and majority-minoriy seats that probably aren't that excited about a shutdown either way.

If Democrats win the two competitive Prince William Seats (21 and 22), wouldn't that make the Democrats favored to win the House of Delegates? My math could be wrong but my impression was those two were close to be tipping point seats.

Assuming they lose nothing else, that makes a 50/50 tie.  Which, fascinatingly, cannot be broken! 

[Ferguson97]

If the shutdown extends into mid-October, Democrats are winning both chambers.

[Nyvin]

If House Republicans are actually stupid enough to let the shutdown go on for two weeks, then the VA House and Senate are both Safe D.

[Oryxslayer]

There are enough winnable seats in NOVA for Dems to control both chambers if there are no flukes in the seats expected to be >99% safe. They are just more apparent in the state senate cause normal partisan leanings suggest there are better targets for house Dems further south.  But the competitive seats are there, and NOVA is where the shutdown hammer would fall especially hardest. Depending on what happens,  we could have to segregate seats based on their geography and how their proximity to DC could change behaviors and outcomes.

Additionally,  when everyone thinks about shutdown effects on voter behavior,  we think of convincing voters who are on the fence. That's what seemingly happened in 2013, or at least become part of it's myth. But we also should remember that Virginia now has many early voting options that are being utilized right now to such an extent that some expect higher turnout than 2021. A voter who goes to the polls early during a shutdown to cast a ballot of anger is likely to lock that in even if circumstances change.  Similarly,  someone with suddenly a bunch of free time my see the value in going to the polls, when under normal circumstances work may take precedence.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

McCarthy is doing the best he can given his circumstances.

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1708190308507214134

[Oryxslayer]

Update: shutdown may be immediatly alleviated until after the election. The details are still in question,  with the bill just passed by the house probably getting Ukrainian money via the senate and another 300+ floor vote, but the crisis at least appears the have been averted.

However,  things are not rosey for VA Republicans. The passage of the extension agreed to by the senate and Biden without concessions to the congressional troll caucus seems to have been mutually incompatible with McCarthys job. All signals suggest a motion to vacate the chair is coming down the pipe. Dems have said they would vote for this, like any opposition party faced with a VONC,  so unless something changes McCarthy may be DOA. At which point we return to the chaos of January. Republican turmoil makes the GOP look weak and crazy to NOVA viewers, and it will be the only news story.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Update: shutdown may be immediatly alleviated until after the election. The details are still in question,  with the bill just passed by the house probably getting Ukrainian money via the senate and another 300+ floor vote, but the crisis at least appears the have been averted.

However,  things are not rosey for VA Republicans. The passage of the extension agreed to by the senate and Biden without concessions to the congressional troll caucus seems to have been mutually incompatible with McCarthys job. All signals suggest a motion to vacate the chair is coming down the pipe. Dems have said they would vote for this, like any opposition party faced with a VONC,  so unless something changes McCarthy may be DOA. At which point we return to the chaos of January. Republican turmoil makes the GOP look weak and crazy to NOVA viewers, and it will be the only news story.

Are they really going to vacate the speaker just for a 45 day bill? It seems like just wishful thinking for now. They can shut down the government after 45 days if they want to.

[Oryxslayer]

Update: shutdown may be immediatly alleviated until after the election. The details are still in question,  with the bill just passed by the house probably getting Ukrainian money via the senate and another 300+ floor vote, but the crisis at least appears the have been averted.

However,  things are not rosey for VA Republicans. The passage of the extension agreed to by the senate and Biden without concessions to the congressional troll caucus seems to have been mutually incompatible with McCarthys job. All signals suggest a motion to vacate the chair is coming down the pipe. Dems have said they would vote for this, like any opposition party faced with a VONC,  so unless something changes McCarthy may be DOA. At which point we return to the chaos of January. Republican turmoil makes the GOP look weak and crazy to NOVA viewers, and it will be the only news story.

Are they really going to vacate the speaker just for a 45 day bill? It seems like just wishful thinking for now. They can shut down the government after 45 days if they want to.

Gaetz seemed to want to do it literally now, but Bice with the gavel ignored him and adjourned the chamber.  It's not about the practicalities,  it's about appearances. McCarthy appeared to ignore them and sidelined all their policies, never mind they were poison pills for the senate.  So now, because they can't be defeated by the establishment,  it's time to claim a scalp. Like I said, trolls, that need to always be victims seeking retribution.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Update: shutdown may be immediatly alleviated until after the election. The details are still in question,  with the bill just passed by the house probably getting Ukrainian money via the senate and another 300+ floor vote, but the crisis at least appears the have been averted.

However,  things are not rosey for VA Republicans. The passage of the extension agreed to by the senate and Biden without concessions to the congressional troll caucus seems to have been mutually incompatible with McCarthys job. All signals suggest a motion to vacate the chair is coming down the pipe. Dems have said they would vote for this, like any opposition party faced with a VONC,  so unless something changes McCarthy may be DOA. At which point we return to the chaos of January. Republican turmoil makes the GOP look weak and crazy to NOVA viewers, and it will be the only news story.

Are they really going to vacate the speaker just for a 45 day bill? It seems like just wishful thinking for now. They can shut down the government after 45 days if they want to.

Gaetz seemed to want to do it literally now, but Bice with the gavel ignored him and adjourned the chamber.  It's not about the practicalities,  it's about appearances. McCarthy appeared to ignore them and sidelined all their policies, never mind they were poison pills for the senate.  So now, because they can't be defeated by the establishment,  it's time to claim a scalp. Like I said, trolls.

The freedom caucus was reasonable to demand negotiations during the debt ceiling, but this potential shutdown that we just avoided would've been over nothing other than to tank Virgnia R's chances. This ordeal increases the strength of my endorsement for Gaetz for 2026 FL-governor, as not only will this cause the governorship to flip (thus finishing what's left of DeSantis politically), but it also gets an idiot out of the house.

[politicallefty]

However,  things are not rosey for VA Republicans. The passage of the extension agreed to by the senate and Biden without concessions to the congressional troll caucus seems to have been mutually incompatible with McCarthys job. All signals suggest a motion to vacate the chair is coming down the pipe. Dems have said they would vote for this, like any opposition party faced with a VONC,  so unless something changes McCarthy may be DOA. At which point we return to the chaos of January. Republican turmoil makes the GOP look weak and crazy to NOVA viewers, and it will be the only news story.

There is another alternative, which is to abstain/vote present. Ukraine funding is one of the most pressing issues right now. I think one of the question is whether or not that can be done through discharge petitions through the remainder of this Congress.

[Roll Roons]

Btw, when the last time a single state legislative race received as much national attention as the Gibson one?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Btw, when the last time a single state legislative race received as much national attention as the Gibson one?

Early last year there was that Michigan legislature special election where the Republican said he would let his daughter get raped, or whatever bananapants crazy thing it was.

[Miles]

Btw, when the last time a single state legislative race received as much national attention as the Gibson one?

Submitting this one.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1564765421785473025?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1708950893410807856?s=20

https://twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/1708818363500126314?s=20

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1708950893410807856?s=20

https://twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/1708818363500126314?s=20

I honestly think that this race has been nationalized because of abortion and Youngkin’s credibility as being a conservative governor in a blue state. If Republicans sweep, I think the morning line for 2024 is a toss-up though the campaign itself might make it move substantially. I think if things kind of cancel eachother out, I think we can move VA back to Lean D. The Dems barely sweeping keeps it Likely D, but a clear overperformance probably starts it at Safe D.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/bpaves/status/1709306785008320972?s=46

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I wonder if the entire speaker ordeal hurts VA Republicans right now.

[Person Man]

I wonder if the entire speaker ordeal hurts VA Republicans right now.

I hope that this election sends the right message on this.

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if the entire speaker ordeal hurts VA Republicans right now.

Probably not much. This doesn’t have an immediate impact on the lives of federal workers in the way that a shutdown would have.

[Person Man]

I wonder if the entire speaker ordeal hurts VA Republicans right now.

Probably not much. This doesn’t have an immediate impact on the lives of federal workers in the way that a shutdown would have.

It makes the prospect of the shutdown happen that much more possible.

[wbrocks67]

Still pretty consistent with now over 100K+

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1709598544636633452