Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe the Virginia GOP'S revival in 2021 was all dumb luck and a fluke.

I thought this was already the conventional wisdom?

I was being sardonic with the second sentence.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, everyone who has debated the efficacy of the HD-57 scandal gets a chance to put their money where their mouth is. CNAnalysis is going to try and fundraise for a poll of the race, even though its a small district so results may be difficult to accuratly obtain.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

What’s the republican equivalent of the VA Dems lol?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

What’s the republican equivalent of the VA Dems lol?

Kansas Republicans?

[wbrocks67]

VA Early Voters as of 9/25/23: 17,873   

59% D / 34% R

54% Female, 46% Men
69% 55+ / 7% 18-29
70% White/13% AA/3 % Hispanic/3% Asian
50%+ have a Bach Degree+
18% Urban/49% Suburban/32% Rural

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1706392656866152584

[Person Man]

VA Early Voters as of 9/25/23: 17,873  

59% D / 34% R

54% Female, 46% Men
69% 55+ / 7% 18-29
70% White/13% AA/3 % Hispanic/3% Asian
50%+ have a Bach Degree+
18% Urban/49% Suburban/32% Rural

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1706392656866152584

What was it in prior years? Do we have a useful frame of reference?

Later: I see it was like 59-41 in 2021. That probably doesn’t mean anything though.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah I'm not sure if we have an apples to apples comparison. I believe someone calculated who won early voters though in 2021. I'll try to find it.

[MARGINS6729]

It would be better to judge it by 2019 since that election were the same races as this one.

[Skill and Chance]

It would be better to judge it by 2019 since that election were the same races as this one.

No-excuse early voting was implemented in 2020, so it's not a valid comparison.

[Roll Roons]

Internal, so salt to taste, but maybe Mr. X has been vindicated on this?
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1706836857651077616

[wbrocks67]

Hm, while I could certainly believe that the D has lost a bit of ground here, that seems overly dramatic. Also, this same internal had Gibson still losing in May (-3%) and August (-4%) pre-"scandal" too.

[kwabbit]

Hm, while I could certainly believe that the D has lost a bit of ground here, that seems overly dramatic. Also, this same internal had Gibson still losing in May (-3%) and August (-4%) pre-"scandal" too.

Yeah, it was leaning GOP in the first place. There are worse districts for this to have for Democrats. This was likely seat 47 or 48 for the GOP and definitely not the tipping point.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1707065240242847844

[Duke of York]

really sad how 18-29 vote is so low. imagine if they voted at the percentage 55 and above does.

[wbrocks67]

UMW poll has generic ballot at D+3, 40-37

https://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2023/09/Release-1-Topline.pdf

[soundchaser]

UMW poll has generic ballot at D+3, 40-37

https://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2023/09/Release-1-Topline.pdf

What poll has this many undecideds when early voting has already started? Come on.

[The Mikado]

really sad how 18-29 vote is so low. imagine if they voted at the percentage 55 and above does.

Voting OVER A MONTH out?

Only the sort of freaks who are like us would vote this early.

Virginia is just a state with quite a few such people.

[Aurelius2]

really sad how 18-29 vote is so low. imagine if they voted at the percentage 55 and above does.

Voting OVER A MONTH out?

Only the sort of freaks who are like us would vote this early.

Virginia is just a state with quite a few such people.

News to me that early voting has already begun, and I *live* here.

[Senator Incitatus]

Internal, so salt to taste, but maybe Mr. X has been vindicated on this?
[tweet]

There was never any need for vindication here.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

really sad how 18-29 vote is so low. imagine if they voted at the percentage 55 and above does.

Voting OVER A MONTH out?

Only the sort of freaks who are like us would vote this early.

Virginia is just a state with quite a few such people.

News to me that early voting has already begun, and I *live* here.

I received my ballot last week and have yet to fill it out (kinda pointless because I don't live in a competitive area but I like democracy) but maybe some localities are handling this better.

[Senator Incitatus]

really sad how 18-29 vote is so low. imagine if they voted at the percentage 55 and above does.

Voting OVER A MONTH out?

Only the sort of freaks who are like us would vote this early.

Virginia is just a state with quite a few such people.

New Jersey VBM has also already begun.

[MARGINS6729]

It would be better to judge it by 2019 since that election were the same races as this one.

No-excuse early voting was implemented in 2020, so it's not a valid comparison.

Ohhhh, I didn't know.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Internal, so salt to taste, but maybe Mr. X has been vindicated on this?
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1706836857651077616

Dems are ending funding for her most likely. There are other pathways to winning back the chamber, why waste valuable money on her?

[Person Man]

I voted.

[LabourJersey]

I voted in person, early last week (the first day of early voting). All of the competitive races in Arlington were in the primaries, so I didn't need much time to decide who I was voting for (and in which races I was writing some other person in).