Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

A GOP pollster has the VA leg generic ballot tied, 41-41.

Weird crosstabs though and has a 2021 recall at Youngkin +8

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1704856747842883686

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

[Yellowhammer]

I agree that consensual sex work is just another job and not any sort of disqualifying scandal, but that of course doesn't mean that candidates won't be judged by their choice of job just like they would for being a prosecutor, a hedge fund manager, etc.

Would you date or marry a prostitute? If not, then you don't really view it as any other job. If you would, then you have issues.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

people do dumb things in college. News at 11.

No reputable source has reported on this at all.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

I’ll wait for a credible source

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even if it's true how is that worse than what Northam did in college?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I agree that consensual sex work is just another job and not any sort of disqualifying scandal, but that of course doesn't mean that candidates won't be judged by their choice of job just like they would for being a prosecutor, a hedge fund manager, etc.

No it is not

[Senator Incitatus]

Even if it's true how is that worse than what Northam did in college?

It seems definitely worse to me, but if you have to make the comparison…

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

And how long ago was this?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

And how long ago was this?

he was born in 1956 so we are talking are  talking mid 70s here.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I agree that consensual sex work is just another job and not any sort of disqualifying scandal, but that of course doesn't mean that candidates won't be judged by their choice of job just like they would for being a prosecutor, a hedge fund manager, etc.

No it is not

If prostitution is legal in a jurisdiction then why is it different that any other service job?

[wbrocks67]

So funny how we keep getting DailyWire links and nothing more...

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trust the plan, dems win both chambers because of Dobbs. I think it won't be that close tbh.

[Lief 🗽]

As for consensual sex work, someone who engages in that sort of behavior not out of genuine necessity or to survive, but simply because they see it as an acceptable way to make some extra cash clearly doesn’t share my values.

To be fair, it really seems like they made sex tapes because they are horny and kinky AF, not for the money. This was a high-income married couple. Whatever they made on Chaturbate was most definitely pocket change compared to their incomes.

Yes, this is a beautiful story about two happily married adults who are still super horny for each other. We should all be so lucky!

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

And how long ago was this?

he was born in 1956 so we are talking are  talking mid 70s here.

The article says 1989 (and he was born in 1967).

Anyway I don't think this has any legs to do damage. Northam made a mess of his situation in large part by having an abysmal response and I have a hard time seeing Mason doing anything near as bad. Even still I have a hard time believing that either AA blue collar workers in Newport News or college kids and professors in Williamsburg will care about this enough to sit out the race.

Also the D+1 refers to the 2022 House Race which was an R overperformance. Going back further, it's Youngkin +3, Kaine +13, Northam +6, and Clinton+3 according to VPAP. Obviously an R upset is possible but I don't think this scandal makes it especially likely.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

And how long ago was this?

he was born in 1956 so we are talking are  talking mid 70s here.

The article says 1989 (and he was born in 1967).

Anyway I don't think this has any legs to do damage. Northam made a mess of his situation in large part by having an abysmal response and I have a hard time seeing Mason doing anything near as bad. Even still I have a hard time believing that either AA blue collar workers in Newport News or college kids and professors in Williamsburg will care about this enough to sit out the race.

Also the D+1 refers to the 2022 House Race which was an R overperformance. Going back further, it's Youngkin +3, Kaine +13, Northam +6, and Clinton+3 according to VPAP. Obviously an R upset is possible but I don't think this scandal makes it especially likely.

So basically Dems are probably fine provided they actually win the popular vote.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

And how long ago was this?

he was born in 1956 so we are talking are  talking mid 70s here.

The article says 1989 (and he was born in 1967).

Anyway I don't think this has any legs to do damage. Northam made a mess of his situation in large part by having an abysmal response and I have a hard time seeing Mason doing anything near as bad. Even still I have a hard time believing that either AA blue collar workers in Newport News or college kids and professors in Williamsburg will care about this enough to sit out the race.

Also the D+1 refers to the 2022 House Race which was an R overperformance. Going back further, it's Youngkin +3, Kaine +13, Northam +6, and Clinton+3 according to VPAP. Obviously an R upset is possible but I don't think this scandal makes it especially likely.

TBH looks kind of desperate digging into college pranks that aren't illegal for scandals.  Reminds me a lot of this ad from Jack Conway in Kentucky back in 2010:

https://www.wsj.com/video/attack-ad-aqua-buddha/1FAB16E9-998F-4358-9264-8B8A75F7CC1F.html

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1704918721976844675?s=20

And how long ago was this?

he was born in 1956 so we are talking are  talking mid 70s here.

The article says 1989 (and he was born in 1967).

Anyway I don't think this has any legs to do damage. Northam made a mess of his situation in large part by having an abysmal response and I have a hard time seeing Mason doing anything near as bad. Even still I have a hard time believing that either AA blue collar workers in Newport News or college kids and professors in Williamsburg will care about this enough to sit out the race.

Also the D+1 refers to the 2022 House Race which was an R overperformance. Going back further, it's Youngkin +3, Kaine +13, Northam +6, and Clinton+3 according to VPAP. Obviously an R upset is possible but I don't think this scandal makes it especially likely.

TBH looks kind of desperate digging into college pranks that aren't illegal for scandals.  Reminds me a lot of this ad from Jack Conway in Kentucky back in 2010:

https://www.wsj.com/video/attack-ad-aqua-buddha/1FAB16E9-998F-4358-9264-8B8A75F7CC1F.html

And it’s a pattern here.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1705220520910675993

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1705220520910675993

Focusing on abortion when they are already are on the defensive about it seems to be dumb.

[Lief 🗽]

Very cool of Republicans to run pro-Democrat ads for us!

[wbrocks67]

A GOP pollster has the VA leg generic ballot tied, 41-41.

Weird crosstabs though and has a 2021 recall at Youngkin +8

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1704856747842883686

Update: this is co/efficient, which given their horrific pro-GOP bias last year, makes this poll even better for Dems than originally thought

[Person Man]

A GOP pollster has the VA leg generic ballot tied, 41-41.

Weird crosstabs though and has a 2021 recall at Youngkin +8

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1704856747842883686

Update: this is co/efficient, which given their horrific pro-GOP bias last year, makes this poll even better for Dems than originally thought

So Democrats are probably winning mid-single digits. I mean, they had Masters and Doctor Ass up a couple and they lost by 5. It would be a reasonable result given that they have nearly 20% undecided and their sample is 6% more Republican than the state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

2022 and other abortion referendums showed that the GOP going on offense on abortion is not going to reverse how they're perceived on the issue, especially in a state like Virginia.

Maybe the Virginia GOP'S revival in 2021 was all dumb luck and a fluke.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Maybe the Virginia GOP'S revival in 2021 was all dumb luck and a fluke.

I thought this was already the conventional wisdom?