Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[beaver2.0]

Here’s a fact

If winsome Sears was a democrat, her candidacy would have been part of media discourse for months

A Jamaican immigrant who arrived on our shores basically destitute

You will never, ever convince me otherwise that the media only treats candidacies of minorities as historic when they are liberal

This is unfortunately true.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In the end it just goes to show you that voters will find any reason to throw a party out of power lol

This sentence seems to suggest that TMac (quite possibly) losing is the voters’ *fault* instead of the voters’ *choice*

Peak Atlas Democrat brain, y’all

I know this is an old comment but I feel need to respond to it

My final post on election night was not about blaming voters for not picking TMac It was about making a larger statement about how our current political environment works

Bill Clinton famous statement about it being all about the economy, stupid is increasingly no longer relevant today because voters do not reward politicians anymore for a good economy like they did in the past. They also don't punish politicians for a bad economy like they use to because Obama won in 2012 despite the economy still not being great and Trump almost won in 2020 despite the country being in a recession.

looking at this race objectively had this been the 1980s, 1990s or even the early 2000 terry mcauliffe would have won the election just based on low unemployment numbers alone but because of the increasing partisanship, it is hard for either party these days to really benefit from a decent economy or low unemployment numbers

Now in farness I have heard some suggest that inflation is the reason for mcauliffe loss, but to frank with you I'm not convinced that terry mcauliffe would have won this election, even with low inflation because ultimately this race was not really about the economy

it was about this....

48% of voters chose taxes and the economy as their most important issue.



For those who chose the "culture war" issue of Education, 44% still voted for McAuliffe.

This poll basically just proves my main point

Terry McAuliffe is losing to Glenn Youngkin on the economy and jobs at a time when Virginia is actually doing even better than the country as a whole and unemployment is at 3.8 percent

Again had this been the 80s 90s or even the 2000s there is no chance that Glenn Youngkin would be beating McAuliffe on that issue when the economy was doing that well. The fact is Terry McAuliffe and Dems literally got no credit for the great economy in virigina would scare the heck out me if were the Dems heading into the 2022 midterms

These results suggest to me that voters may not reward the Dems even if the economy is doing well in 2022 or even if the Dems do pass popular bills like infrastructure.

High inflation is an issue that can affect more people directly than High Unemployment

[President Johnson]

In the end it just goes to show you that voters will find any reason to throw a party out of power lol

This sentence seems to suggest that TMac (quite possibly) losing is the voters’ *fault* instead of the voters’ *choice*

Peak Atlas Democrat brain, y’all

I know this is an old comment but I feel need to respond to it

My final post on election night was not about blaming voters for not picking TMac It was about making a larger statement about how our current political environment works

Bill Clinton famous statement about it being all about the economy, stupid is increasingly no longer relevant today because voters do not reward politicians anymore for a good economy like they did in the past. They also don't punish politicians for a bad economy like they use to because Obama won in 2012 despite the economy still not being great and Trump almost won in 2020 despite the country being in a recession.

looking at this race objectively had this been the 1980s, 1990s or even the early 2000 terry mcauliffe would have won the election just based on low unemployment numbers alone but because of the increasing partisanship, it is hard for either party these days to really benefit from a decent economy or low unemployment numbers

Now in farness I have heard some suggest that inflation is the reason for mcauliffe loss, but to frank with you I'm not convinced that terry mcauliffe would have won this election, even with low inflation because ultimately this race was not really about the economy

it was about this....

48% of voters chose taxes and the economy as their most important issue.



For those who chose the "culture war" issue of Education, 44% still voted for McAuliffe.

This poll basically just proves my main point

Terry McAuliffe is losing to Glenn Youngkin on the economy and jobs at a time when Virginia is actually doing even better than the country as a whole and unemployment is at 3.8 percent

Again had this been the 80s 90s or even the 2000s there is no chance that Glenn Youngkin would be beating McAuliffe on that issue when the economy was doing that well. The fact is Terry McAuliffe and Dems literally got no credit for the great economy in virigina would scare the heck out me if were the Dems heading into the 2022 midterms

These results suggest to me that voters may not reward the Dems even if the economy is doing well in 2022 or even if the Dems do pass popular bills like infrastructure.

High inflation is an issue that can affect more people directly than High Unemployment

Both can be true at the same time. This and the culture war stuff, each just apply to different voting blocs that together make a winning coalition.

[Adam Griffin]

I tried to tell people, but some wouldn't listen:

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

If you want to be wrong, you can at least quote me. I'll see your responses regardless.

...

With regard to turnout versus persuasion over the past 16 years, sheer demographic growth being responsible for the bulk of D gains is mathematically impossible. After you deduct the share of net population growth that is children (40%) and non-citizens (6%), you're barely left with enough to explain the raw vote change between 2004 & 2016 - and that's assuming practically every single person is voting and is voting Democratic. That also fails to account for the Democratic voters the state has lost over time to the Republicans.

The gist is this: you need roughly 6 people to move into a state like Virginia to net 1 Democratic vote (margin). Based on VA's 15-year growth (including minors becoming adults, in-migration and out-migration), Democrats have netted 186,000 votes. The margin in VA shifted by 474,000 between 2004 & 2016. Demography is responsible for 40% of the net D margin shift; voters flipping are responsible for 60%. As far as people (not votes) go - since defections are worth twice as much margin-wise - the defectors comprise a bit less than 45% of those who have contributed to the shift.

Fun fact: add that 186k from pure demographic shift to the 2004 presidential result, and you get:

Bush 50.7%
Kerry 48.4%

And what do you know?



The net result here is that Democrats lost the equivalent of every persuadable vote they've earned since 2004 in this race.

[Holmes]

I mean, TMac just.... f.cking sucks. Less so than Youngkin ooobviously but he's sh**te. So.

Remember when Lief said he was the Democrats' only hope? They really should've went with someone else.

[GALeftist]

I tried to tell people, but some wouldn't listen:

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

If you want to be wrong, you can at least quote me. I'll see your responses regardless.

...

With regard to turnout versus persuasion over the past 16 years, sheer demographic growth being responsible for the bulk of D gains is mathematically impossible. After you deduct the share of net population growth that is children (40%) and non-citizens (6%), you're barely left with enough to explain the raw vote change between 2004 & 2016 - and that's assuming practically every single person is voting and is voting Democratic. That also fails to account for the Democratic voters the state has lost over time to the Republicans.

The gist is this: you need roughly 6 people to move into a state like Virginia to net 1 Democratic vote (margin). Based on VA's 15-year growth (including minors becoming adults, in-migration and out-migration), Democrats have netted 186,000 votes. The margin in VA shifted by 474,000 between 2004 & 2016. Demography is responsible for 40% of the net D margin shift; voters flipping are responsible for 60%. As far as people (not votes) go - since defections are worth twice as much margin-wise - the defectors comprise a bit less than 45% of those who have contributed to the shift.

Fun fact: add that 186k from pure demographic shift to the 2004 presidential result, and you get:

Bush 50.7%
Kerry 48.4%

And what do you know?



The net result here is that Democrats lost the equivalent of every persuadable vote they've earned since 2004 in this race.

On the bright side, I guess we now know what the D floor in Virginia is!

[jojoju1998]

Small Business owners, Police officers, skilled trade workers, feel left out by the corporate democrats. They are the ones directly dealing with the inflation, the high business taxes ( while Walmart gets away with paying nothing ),

These are also the same group of people that a certain individual in Europe won over in 1933. Because they are the ones most liekly to be affected by economic and social change.

I don't agree that they should vote Republican, but I can see why they would. And they are more culturally conservative. The small town America shtick.

[Chips]

NYT has finally called the Attorney General race for Jason Miyares. Making it a clean sweep for the GOP in Virginia along with a 52-48 GOP edge in the state's House of Delegates.

[BigSerg]

Finally, NYT and The Washington Post project that Miyares (R) will win

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1455996526493421571

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1455996526493421571

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1456013465269809155?s=20

[Pollster]

Spent a bit of time with all the polling I could get my hands on (both public and private) and reconciled it with early voting indicators, some voter file analysis, roughshod modeling, and general observations of fundamentals. Came down with the takeaway that Youngkin can win, but he'll need one/both of a) a Democratic turnout collapse that early voting indicates is not happening and b) a sizeable improvement with independent and softer Democratic voters that polling indicates is possible but a tall order.

One thing that struck me is that Youngkin's best polls aren't actually showing this improvement. Rather, they're showing him gaining among Black voters and non-college whites. Its easy to dismiss this (Black voters being historically inelastic and non-college whites already supporting Republicans in massive numbers) and I certainly think it's much more likely that these polls are flawed, but there are also some explanations that are quite plausible:
     

• The increasing educational/religious polarization is starting to take hold of Black voters in a manner similar to Hispanic voters last cycle.
• Educational polarization is superseding urban/rural polarization among white voters, and non-college whites in urban areas (there are quite a few in VA) are abandoning Democrats.
• The remaining Democratic non-college white voters are planning to sit this election out.

Again, think it's much more likely these polls are just highly flawed and that McAuliffe/Youngkin's coalitions will be par for the course and unremarkable. But on the off chance they're actually just ahead of the curve and picking up on a burgeoning realignment, think it could have fascinating implications for the rest of the decade and could certainly lead to some hilarious dummymanders down the line.

Quoting my own post to point out that it looks like Youngkin got B here: sizeable improvement with independent and softer Democratic voters. This election certainly disproved the proponents of the base-is-everything/"there are no swing voters" strategy.

Doesn't rule out the possibility of the realignment I theorized, but there weren't many if any signs of it here. Exit polls seem to indicate McAuliffe held his own among the voters of color who turned out.

[EastwoodS]

I tried to tell people, but some wouldn't listen:

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

If you want to be wrong, you can at least quote me. I'll see your responses regardless.

...

With regard to turnout versus persuasion over the past 16 years, sheer demographic growth being responsible for the bulk of D gains is mathematically impossible. After you deduct the share of net population growth that is children (40%) and non-citizens (6%), you're barely left with enough to explain the raw vote change between 2004 & 2016 - and that's assuming practically every single person is voting and is voting Democratic. That also fails to account for the Democratic voters the state has lost over time to the Republicans.

The gist is this: you need roughly 6 people to move into a state like Virginia to net 1 Democratic vote (margin). Based on VA's 15-year growth (including minors becoming adults, in-migration and out-migration), Democrats have netted 186,000 votes. The margin in VA shifted by 474,000 between 2004 & 2016. Demography is responsible for 40% of the net D margin shift; voters flipping are responsible for 60%. As far as people (not votes) go - since defections are worth twice as much margin-wise - the defectors comprise a bit less than 45% of those who have contributed to the shift.

Fun fact: add that 186k from pure demographic shift to the 2004 presidential result, and you get:

Bush 50.7%
Kerry 48.4%

And what do you know?



The net result here is that Democrats lost the equivalent of every persuadable vote they've earned since 2004 in this race.

On the bright side, I guess we now know what the D floor in Virginia is!

I hope that’s not some type of cope. Bc how do you know that..

[Skill and Chance]

Dems lost everything that was up in VA and are only being saved by the late absentees in NJ, so this wasn't just about T-Mac.

[jamestroll]

I do not believe Youngkin won Latinos but it will be extremely difficult to have a final margin based on precinct results.

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1456025843281633283

[jojoju1998]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1456025843281633283

I don't agree with that conclusion, But i can understand why.

Democrats have to get out of Yale and Harvard and start spending time in " Small Town " America. Plain and Simple.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1456025843281633283

Silence, Republican!

[Thunder98]

A message from Governor-Elect Young Kim.

https://twitter.com/YoungKimCA/status/1456021673581453312?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/YoungKimCA/status/1456021673581453312?s=20

Atlas memes incoming in 5...4...3...

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/WinWithWinsome/status/1455974632620761091

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1455753265413513217

Seems like Rs did have a turnout advantage at least relatively.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Well, looks like I was wrong about NJ. Damn mail-ins.

[jamestroll]

I was not being a doomer this whole time.. it was quite obvious this would happen

But no... sorry the GOP isn't winning Virginia in 2024.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1455753265413513217

Seems like Rs did have a turnout advantage at least relatively.

Gosh…knew there was something we were supposed to do today.