Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mattsgorman/status/1455719690609860610

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I honestly don't get it why so many Atlas users, people who ought to have some profound knowledge of politics, polls and psephology^*), predicted the Virginia gubernatorial election so incredibly wrong. The polls were clearly indicating a Youngkin win. Only 45 Atlasians live in the real world, whereas for 64, their wish was father to their thought. I am utterly unable to grasp how so many members refused to use their brains.

Why does the majority of Altas still thinks that that ex-governor still has a chance to win?

*) I will now accept my accolades for that awesome alliteration.

[Horus]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mattsgorman/status/1455719690609860610

T-Mac felt entitled to a win here it seems. No wonder he's so close with Hillary, same mentality.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Exit polls of course should be taken with a massive grain of salt (especially the Edison Research ones), but they show Youngkin doing 15 points better than Trump with White Evangelical voters. Democrats' heavy focus on abortion/right to choose likely contributed to this.

Such a shift would easily and clearly explain Youngkin overperforming Trump's SWVA margins, and is a strong sign - especially in such a high turnout election - that Republican margins in rural America (especially in the deep south/great plains) are not yet maxed out.

The rural margins in the deep south are maxed out. They are consistently 70-85% R in the exurban and rural counties in most southern states from South Carolina to TX. The only real exceptions are heavily black rural areas. The evangelicals that swung back R are suburban evangelicals which are a huge block of voters in southern suburbs, especially in GA in TX. In GA, Democrats can at least take solace in the fact that a lot of the gains were thanks to the mobilization of African Americans who are at no risk of swinging GOP. TX Democrats however should be terrified of this result. If this continues, I don't see Abbott winning by less than 13 points and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up over 15.

I’ve said it before many times, but this is wrong. Every time someone says that Republicans are “maxed out” in white rurals, they’re wrong. There’s no reason those counties can’t vote 80-90% R in theory.

I don't mind being wrong. I just don't think whites will ever be quite as monolithically R as blacks are D outside of the handful of places in the deep south where this is already the case.

[Inmate Trump]

Some of my disparate observations, analysis and other Monday-morning QB'ing:

1.  McAuliffe's strategy of running against "Trumpkin" was a bad bet.  Turns out voters aren't really animated by attacks on an ex-President.  Youngkin gained everywhere because he was the only candidate talking about the issues, McAuliffe was talking past voters trying to bring-up Trump at every possible moment.

2.  Independent of  McAuliffe's strategy, he is probably just a weak candidate in general.  Ultimate Beltway insider and has-been governor is not a compelling biography compared to the younger, outsider Youngkin. 

3.  Alternatively, Glenn Youngkin is pretty much the type of Republican nominee you would create in a lab.  Not having to run in and win a GOP primary was definitely a net positive for Youngkin in this race.     

4.  The polls were pretty accurate.  My worry that polls were herding towards Youngkin in the closing stretch doesn't appear to have materialized.  Then again, Virginia is a pretty easy state to poll (i.e., relatively few non-college Whites.)   

5.  The biggest loser of last night may very well be Donald Trump.  Republicans are looking over the results today and seeing a way to run and win while keeping Trump at arms' length.  GOP primary voters motivated by an "electability" criterion look to have a valid prototype in Glenn Youngkin, and I expect this angle will be the dominant one in conservative media going into next year. 

I'll leave it to the Democrat hacks on this site to hash out what the results ultimately mean about the battles being fought in their own party.  Regardless, I only see these results hardening Manchinema and AOC types alike on their BBB positions. 

I mostly agree, especially with 5.

I wonder, though, if Republicans will take this signal and run with it…and how much Trump will pushback and try to insert himself anyway.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Exit polls of course should be taken with a massive grain of salt (especially the Edison Research ones), but they show Youngkin doing 15 points better than Trump with White Evangelical voters. Democrats' heavy focus on abortion/right to choose likely contributed to this.

Such a shift would easily and clearly explain Youngkin overperforming Trump's SWVA margins, and is a strong sign - especially in such a high turnout election - that Republican margins in rural America (especially in the deep south/great plains) are not yet maxed out.

The rural margins in the deep south are maxed out. They are consistently 70-85% R in the exurban and rural counties in most southern states from South Carolina to TX. The only real exceptions are heavily black rural areas. The evangelicals that swung back R are suburban evangelicals which are a huge block of voters in southern suburbs, especially in GA in TX. In GA, Democrats can at least take solace in the fact that a lot of the gains were thanks to the mobilization of African Americans who are at no risk of swinging GOP. TX Democrats however should be terrified of this result. If this continues, I don't see Abbott winning by less than 13 points and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up over 15.

I’ve said it before many times, but this is wrong. Every time someone says that Republicans are “maxed out” in white rurals, they’re wrong. There’s no reason those counties can’t vote 80-90% R in theory.

I don't mind being wrong. I just don't think whites will ever be quite as monolithically R as blacks are D outside of the handful of places in the deep south where this is already the case.

I'm not saying that it will happen, just that it can happen. I keep hearing "Reps are maxed out in the rurals," and it keeps not being true.

[Del Tachi]

One thing I don't understand is how red avatars can talk out both sides of their head regarding turnout levels.  First, they'll say low turnout is a good sign for them because Democrats' Virginia coalition is full of "high propensity" voters (i.e., White college-educated types.)  Then, they'll turn around in the face of probable +3M turnout and say this is also good for T-Mac?  which is it?  lol

Like, I still fully expect McAuliffe to win ~6 pts but the Atlas pundit-think is beyond silly

I'm not getting involved in the what-means-what discussion, but it's quite plausible that medium propensity voters lean Republican, while highs and lows both lean Democrat, right?

Thus in that scenario , medium turnout would be good for Youngkin and either extreme would be good for McAuliffe.

To revisit, this may be true of voters at an individual level but if the Republican coalition is lower-propensity than Democrats *in aggregate* then higher turnout scenarios should get better and better for Republicans (from baseline.)

It's interesting to think that the GOP may actually have a structural, high turnout advantage in D states like Virginia.  It's believable that non-White voters are more Republican under a "high turnout" scenario than a "low turnout" one, IMO.   

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

[Matty]

Youngkin did remarkably well with Latino voters

AP exit has him at 55%

Don’t discount the school closures being the driving factor.

One reason fairfax and nova didn’t swing as much is because in many ways, those voters loved the pandemic/lockdown. They got to work from home in jobs already convenient for working from home. Their kids were easily able to do online schooling without much help. They were able to exercise whenever they wanted, etc.

Totally different story with Latinos

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

I’m not against this (as a gay) just run candidates who are mum on gay marriage and abortion if they’ll get behind labor and health reform.

[Del Tachi]

Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues.

You can't be something you're not.  Democrats like this literally do not exist anymore.  They've all become Republicans.

Democrats have traded White working-class voters for suburban types, and it's obviously a bad trade electorally unless you have someone as uniquely unpopular as incumbent president Donald Trump to rail against.  With  Trump now exiting, Democrats should hunker down for the long wilderness period they have coming.   

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues.

You can't be something you're not.  Democrats like this literally do not exist anymore.  They've all become Republicans.

Democrats have traded White working-class voters for suburban types, and it's obviously a bad trade electorally unless you have someone as uniquely unpopular as incumbent president Donald Trump to rail against.  With  Trump now exiting, Democrats should hunker down for the long wilderness period they have coming.   

I'm literally one of those Democrats. I know there isn't a lot of me anymore and I do occasionally cross over, but until the GOP actually starts representing the economic interests of these voters, there is an opening. Trump promised to do this and he did on trade and immigration, but he was a massive disappointment on taxes, healthcare, and infrastructure.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

I’m not against this (as a gay) just run candidates who are mum on gay marriage and abortion if they’ll get behind labor and health reform.

Not just that, but proudly and actively take a stand on some cultural issues... no gun control, no CRT and I disagree with you on abortion. That's a huge wedge and too many people in middle America receptive otherwise will shut you down on that issue alone. There absolutely should be room for pro-life Democrats.

[Crumpets]

Lol, this is the official Council of DC Twitter:

https://twitter.com/councilofdc/status/1455708493164523525

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Some of my disparate observations, analysis and other Monday-morning QB'ing:

1.  McAuliffe's strategy of running against "Trumpkin" was a bad bet.  Turns out voters aren't really animated by attacks on an ex-President.  Youngkin gained everywhere because he was the only candidate talking about the issues, McAuliffe was talking past voters trying to bring-up Trump at every possible moment.

2.  Independent of  McAuliffe's strategy, he is probably just a weak candidate in general.  Ultimate Beltway insider and has-been governor is not a compelling biography compared to the younger, outsider Youngkin. 

3.  Alternatively, Glenn Youngkin is pretty much the type of Republican nominee you would create in a lab.  Not having to run in and win a GOP primary was definitely a net positive for Youngkin in this race.     

4.  The polls were pretty accurate.  My worry that polls were herding towards Youngkin in the closing stretch doesn't appear to have materialized.  Then again, Virginia is a pretty easy state to poll (i.e., relatively few non-college Whites.)   

5.  The biggest loser of last night may very well be Donald Trump.  Republicans are looking over the results today and seeing a way to run and win while keeping Trump at arms' length.  GOP primary voters motivated by an "electability" criterion look to have a valid prototype in Glenn Youngkin, and I expect this angle will be the dominant one in conservative media going into next year. 

I'll leave it to the Democrat hacks on this site to hash out what the results ultimately mean about the battles being fought in their own party.  Regardless, I only see these results hardening Manchinema and AOC types alike on their BBB positions. 

1. I can’t say I followed this election that closely, so nothing to say here.

2. Yeah, McAuliffe is the epitome of a Beltway Dem in all of the worst ways. Not inspiring to progressives and not inspiring to swing voters either.

3. Again, not having followed the election, it’s interesting that VA Republicans didn’t have a primary.

4. Yeah, this wasn’t a whiff by the pollsters.

5. 2024 if Trump runs will still be the ultimate test for this hypothesis. But as others have said (as well as you if I’m reading your post correctly), making everything about Trump isn’t necessarily good if he’s not on the ballot. If he’s on the ballot in 2024, we’ll have to see what happens. That being said, linking Trump to Larry Elder worked wonders for Newsom in California.

(6.) We’ll see what happens in Congress; it does sound like Manchin is slowly getting on board.

I think that the biggest issues facing the Dems are:
1. People are tired of Covid restrictions. Comments about Latinos especially being hit hard by school closures as opposed to white collar whites might very well be the issue (as opposed to whites being afraid of CRT). I wish that there was more of a break-down on the education question so that we could see what drove education-oriented voters.

2. McAuliffe is a terrible candidate because as we agree, he’s just the stereotypical beltway person that Chuck Todd probably has dirty dreams about winning in a landslide.

3. What I do wonder is how much this is a local thing with Virginia. They’ve had 8 years of Dems in the executive and we’re in the first year of a Dem administration. Dem fatigue?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Why has the Attorney General race not been called yet? Does Herring really still stand a chance?

[lfromnj]

LOL @specialmaster who drew Petersburg with high turnout super R exurban areas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

To defend the campaign staff I would love to watch Atlas posters try and run a campaign. Would be hilarious where it ended up.

Now I just imagine
“Twitchchat runs a campaign!”

Streamer: Ok chat, we were behind by 20 points because of stances we took on diversity training, but the last few polls had us behind by 10 and we only lost by 5 points
Chat: POGGERS

[beaver2.0]

Lol, this is the official Council of DC Twitter:

https://twitter.com/councilofdc/status/1455708493164523525

They're talking mad sh**t for a group that doesn't even have full control over their entire city.

[jojoju1998]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

That's literally Sherrod Brown.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Maybe Democrats can come back in the rural midwest, but the rural south isnt possible anymore. Ronald Reagan broke the Democratic Hold on the Rural South and then George W Bush absolutely obliterated any hopes for a Democratic resurgence there

[Chips]

I posted about this in another thread but I'll post here too. It appears as though there are 12 Biden-Youngkin jurisdictions.

Stafford
Lynchburg
Northampton
Chesterfield
James City
Hopewell
Surry
Chesapeake
Virginia Beach
Prince Edward
Montgomery
Radford

[2016]

Any Idea why the Networks or AP haven't called the VA AG Race between Miyares and Herring? There is no chance for Herring to come back.

[BigSerg]

Bruh....
https://twitter.com/JeffOnTheRight/status/1455932052650479618?s=20

[beaver2.0]

Bruh....
https://twitter.com/JeffOnTheRight/status/1455932052650479618?s=20

This is indeed what the youths of today call a " brother moment ".