Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Alcibiades]

A lot of blame has (rightfully) been placed on Dems for losing this race, but I don’t think we should overlook the fact that Youngkin was a truly outstanding candidate (from an objective electoral standpoint; I personally strongly dislike the guy), one of the very best the GOP has put forward in any state in the last decade.

Perhaps his greatest talent, one that all the most successful politicians possess, was being different things to different people at the same time. He came across as an “authentic” Republican to base voters, and so hugely juiced turnout, while seeming inoffensive and reasonable to independents and swing voters. This is evidenced by the fact that the swing to him was pretty uniform across all areas of Virginia. Youngkin also avoided divisive and unpopular culture wars issues, and instead focused on one of the few that had broad appeal throughout the state, namely education/“CRT”.

Finally, he didn’t say anything stupid. This may seem trivial, but never underestimate just how many ostensibly strong Republicans have thrown away elections because they seem pathologically incapable of not making bizarre and offensive comments.

[Person Man]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Maybe Democrats can come back in the rural midwest, but the rural south isnt possible anymore. Ronald Reagan broke the Democratic Hold on the Rural South and then George W Bush absolutely obliterated any hopes for a Democratic resurgence there

I still think you could probably do this in Florida. I could someone like Stephanie Murphy doing better in  a Republican midterm. Someone who is hawkish and otherwise moderate. Democrats needs to do better in the senate and getting conservadems to win in Missouri, Ohio, Montana, or even Kansas and Nebraska will be important.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I thought that Youngkin would win by 1.39%, so he outperformed my expectations for him by almost a point. Good on Youngkin, now it's time to shift this energy to 2022, 2023, and maybe 2024.

You don't need "energy." All you need is historical precedent.

[BigSkyBob]

I'm surprised by how small Youngkin's margin was. In politics, the trend is your friend. Such late poll momentum hardly ever reverses at the last minute. I thought Fox might have been the closest to the eventual outcome.

Lowering the standard of living for middle-class Americans isn't good politics, and, that is what anti-oil, anti-natural-gas policies do. It is going to be worse in 2022 as oil trends to triple digit prices. Bad management isn't popular either. The supply chain situation is only going to worsen inasmuch as Biden's administration seems more interested in looking like they are doing something about it, rather, than showing any willingness to make the hard choices, such as telling the unions, "No!" And, telling children they are "racist" because of their skin color is electoral poison. Denying empirical reality will not change that fact.

[LAB-LIB]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

I'd argue that the British Labour Party took Scotland for granted for a long time in the same way that Democrats have taken many of their voters for granted for a long time, even as they've had the best interests of those voters at heart.

[Person Man]

A lot of blame has (rightfully) been blamed on Dems for losing this race, but I don’t think we should overlook the fact that Youngkin was a truly outstanding candidate (from an objective electoral standpoint; I personally strongly dislike the guy), one of the very best the GOP has put forward in any state in the last decade.

Perhaps his greatest talent, one that all the most successful politicians possess, was being different things to different people at the same time. He came across as an “authentic” Republican to base voters, and so hugely juiced turnout, while seeming inoffensive and reasonable to independents and swing voters. This is evidenced by the fact that the swing to him was pretty uniform across all areas of Virginia. Youngkin also avoided divisive and unpopular culture wars issues, and instead focused on one of the few that had broad appeal throughout the state, namely education/“CRT”.

Finally, he didn’t say anything stupid. This may seem trivial, but never underestimate just how many ostensibly strong Republicans have thrown away elections because they seem pathologically incapable of not making bizarre and offensive comments.

I guess Democrats got “legitimately raped” then. For those who weren’t around in 2012, that’s why McCaskell was senator all the way until 2018.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm surprised by how small Youngkin's margin was. In politics, the trend is your friend. Such late poll momentum hardly ever reverses at the last minute. I thought Fox might have been the closest to the eventual outcome.

Lowering the standard of living for middle-class Americans isn't good politics, and, that is what anti-oil, anti-natural-gas policies do. It is going to be worse in 2022 as oil trends to triple digit prices. Bad management isn't popular either. The supply chain situation is only going to worsen inasmuch as Biden's administration seems more interested in looking like they are doing something about it, rather, than showing any willingness to make the hard choices, such as telling the unions, "No!" And, telling children they are "racist" because of their skin color is electoral poison. Denying empirical reality will not change that fact.

Americans certainly bought Trump's lip service on most things he didn't actually have a hand in. Why shouldn't Biden do the same? Anyway, gas prices and supply chain issues aren't entirely in his control. American don't understand that the President doesn't actively control everything.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The next step for some in the election mafia will be to downplay the significance of this race as McAuliffe was a "bad candidate" (which, he was) that uniquely underperformed. So... how does that explain the New Jersey results, or the other statewide races that look nearly identical (with an incumbent Dem AG likely losing)? Or the competitive HoD?

Thank you for all the thankless work you do in promoting truth. I know you continuously got called out a lot for trying to be accurate. There were accusations that you disappear when the GOP is doing bad, but it is not because you are gloating in other instances and absent (like NSV lol) when things are bad. It is because you are a critical voice needed to disrupt the incorrect groupthink in certain instances. Appreciate all your commentary.

Great call on calling this out. We went through this with Hillary Clinton, and we go through it again here. These people are raved about as "great candidates" all over the place until they lose. Robby Mook was a genius leading a blowout romp until unforeseen defeat in certain victory. Insane to see narratives rewritten overnight by the people who intensely bicker and scream loudly about how right they were and how wrong others were....until they are wrong and need this excuse the explain why they were wrong. No one ever self-evaluates.

Dems got cocky after 2020 for the narrowest of wins in an election that had no business being close. They treated it like a devastating blow and rejection of Trump because they won by half a point. Because that's what they needed to tell themselves to get their agenda across. Completely misguided.

[StateBoiler]

Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues.

You can't be something you're not.  Democrats like this literally do not exist anymore.  They've all become Republicans.

The last remaining Democrats like this are...blue-collar union and trade workers? I also think the modern Democratic Party's relationship with organized labor is quite tortured.

[R.P. McM]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Do NY and MA determine who gets elected in LA and WV? Not that I'm aware. The truth is, politicians like John Breaux and Joe Manchin have made a calculated decision. Informed by years of experience operating in their native political environments. The same decision conservative Democrats representing downscale whites always make: sellout to affluent interests.

Why is that? Well, one explanation might be that Democrats who win elections in very challenging territory are politically inept. But that seems highly counterintuitive. The more plausible explanation is simply that the voters of LA, WV, KY, AL, etc., aren't pining for a socially conservative version of Bernie Sanders. Economic status exerts such a negligible influence over their electoral behavior that Joe Manchin would rather kill family medical leave than risk antagonizing Corporate America. And it's probably a wise decision.
  

[StateBoiler]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Do NY and MA determine who gets elected in LA and WV? Not that I'm aware of.

Do people and organizations from New York and Massachusetts send money to candidates in Louisiana and West Virginia? You think no money from outside the state is going to be funneled to whoever runs against Manchin in the 2024 primary?

[jojoju1998]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Do NY and MA determine who gets elected in LA and WV? Not that I'm aware of. The truth is, politicians like John Breaux and Joe Manchin have made a calculated decision. Informed by years of experience operating in their native political environments. The same decision conservative Democrats representing downscale whites always make: sellout to affluent interests.

Why is that? Well, one explanation might be that Democrats who win elections in very challenging territory are politically inept. But that seems highly counterintuitive. The more plausible explanation is simply that the voters of LA, WV, KY, AL, etc., aren't pining for a socially conservative version of Bernie Sanders. Economic status exerts such a negligible influence over their electoral behavior that Joe Manchin would rather kill family medical leave than risk antagonizing Corporate America. And it's probably a wise decision.
  

Sherrod Brown.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Do NY and MA determine who gets elected in LA and WV? Not that I'm aware of. The truth is, politicians like John Breaux and Joe Manchin have made a calculated decision. Informed by years of experience operating in their native political environments. The same decision conservative Democrats representing downscale whites always make: sellout to affluent interests.

Why is that? Well, one explanation might be that Democrats who win elections in very challenging territory are politically inept. But that seems highly counterintuitive. The more plausible explanation is simply that the voters of LA, WV, KY, AL, etc., aren't pining for a socially conservative version of Bernie Sanders. Economic status exerts such a negligible influence over their electoral behavior that Joe Manchin would rather kill family medical leave than risk antagonizing Corporate America. And it's probably a wise decision.
  

You do a good job of breaking down the thought process they likely use, imo. Here's a recommend.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What’s the best outcome narrative-wise for Biden and Trump out of VA in terms of turnout/margins in areas/with demos and overall result?

If TMac wins, it'll show that that suburbs and college educated whites are sticking with the Dems.

So, he didn't win, obviously. However, I do think the results show that, despite there being some suburban reversion (almost entirely due to the midterm curse), college educated whites and metro areas are sticking with the Democrats.

[R.P. McM]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Do NY and MA determine who gets elected in LA and WV? Not that I'm aware of. The truth is, politicians like John Breaux and Joe Manchin have made a calculated decision. Informed by years of experience operating in their native political environments. The same decision conservative Democrats representing downscale whites always make: sellout to affluent interests.

Why is that? Well, one explanation might be that Democrats who win elections in very challenging territory are politically inept. But that seems highly counterintuitive. The more plausible explanation is simply that the voters of LA, WV, KY, AL, etc., aren't pining for a socially conservative version of Bernie Sanders. Economic status exerts such a negligible influence over their electoral behavior that Joe Manchin would rather kill family medical leave than risk antagonizing Corporate America. And it's probably a wise decision.
  

Sherrod Brown.

[Astatine]

I'd like to appreciate pollsters for once, after much backlash they got (and deserved) last year, it should be noted that on average, their final numbers (RCP average +1.7, 538 average +1.0) were almost spot on with the actual election results (+2.1 as of now). The ultimate polls for LG and AG (in spite of being internals) were also quite close to the respective outcomes.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

That's literally Sherrod Brown.

I like Sharrod Brown.... there unfortunately aren't that many Sherrod Browns running nationwide, though he's maybe a bit less culturally conservative than we would need in some places. Way too few of him and way too many Beto O'Rourkes.

[Matty]

Here’s a fact

If winsome Sears was a democrat, her candidacy would have been part of media discourse for months

A Jamaican immigrant who arrived on our shores basically destitute

You will never, ever convince me otherwise that the media only treats candidacies of minorities as historic when they are liberal

[jojoju1998]

Here’s a fact

If winsome Sears was a democrat, her candidacy would have been part of media discourse for months

A Jamaican immigrant who arrived on our shores basically destitute

You will never, ever convince me otherwise that the media only treats candidacies of minorities as historic when they are liberal

I mean they kind of did that for Colin POwell as a Presidential possible contender....

who knows what might have happened if he was elected in 2000.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

I'm glad I tempered my expectations for this race after the Tox poll gave me an ulcer. In spite of this, that poll being an outlier after all and me actually nailing my updated Youngkin+2 prediction were the only minor silver linings. It was an excruciating night otherwise, like every election since 2014 (2027 and 2019 excepted).

I want to be sedated.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1455892930800066564?s=20

See? I f***ing knew we couldn't trust suburbanites in general. They hate Trump, but only him personally. They're like relapsing addicts with the GOP without him.

So if Democrats can't rely on them, or even voters of color anymore, what does a winning Democratic coalition even look like? Let's face it, we're going the way of the British Labour Party but we can't even partly blame Scotland like they can.

Democrats never want to admit this, but we do in fact need the old New Deal coalition if we want to be as competitive in local and congressional races as we are for the presidency. In safe blue districts/states, run as liberal a candidate as you can find. But down south, Democrats have his really stupid idea of running of socially liberal fiscally moderate-conservative corporatists which NOBODY LIKES OUTSIDE OF THE WEALTHY NORTHEAST. Run socially conservative populists.... like legitimate populists... run a bunch of tough Teddy Roosevelt clones who a more traditional electorate can trust to represent them on cultural issues and fight for their best interests on economic issues. I'm tired of seeing (insert generic effeminate beta male neoliberal here) lose year after year. When they do manage to squeak out a victory, they always sell their voters out to corporate donors.

Maybe Democrats can come back in the rural midwest, but the rural south isnt possible anymore. Ronald Reagan broke the Democratic Hold on the Rural South and then George W Bush absolutely obliterated any hopes for a Democratic resurgence there

Bush may have done it at the presidential level, but I think Obama obliterated those chances down-ballot more than anything, unfortunately. There were a host of rural southern Dems congress until early last decade. There just aren't enough traditional voters left in the primary to nominate candidates that appeal to anyone other than urban liberals, which are a minority in these states.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455980091893235716

McAuliffe did better with Latinos, Asians, and Black voters... but absolutely collapsed with white voters.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455980091893235716

McAuliffe did better with Latinos, Asians, and Black voters... but absolutely collapsed with white voters.

The precinct results tell a different story however. The exit polls are terrible

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455980091893235716

McAuliffe did better with Latinos, Asians, and Black voters... but absolutely collapsed with white voters.

The precinct results tell a different story however. The exit polls are terrible

This

[EastwoodS]

Just out of curiosity what do we think about the very conflicting exit polls on the Hispanic vote? I get the sense that both were wrong; it seems that TMac probably won them by 10 or so.

[H. Ross Peron]

Lol, this is the official Council of DC Twitter:

https://twitter.com/councilofdc/status/1455708493164523525

Nice to see some good old fashioned DC irredentism.