Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Carter won't be nominated, and if so, he would be a disaster.

If T-Mac stays out, I hope Jennifer Carrol Foy gets the nomination. She's the most intersting candidate. If T-Mac jumps in, I'd like her to run for the second spot with T-Macs help in exchange for his support four years later.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, the Giuliani account she linked is a joke and not the real guy.

[President Johnson]

Yeeees! T-Mac hereby strongly endorsed! He'll run through the primary and win the general election. As I said already, it would be great if Jennifer Carroll Foy withdraws and runs for the second spot, with T-Mac endorsing her in exchange. She could then run after four years with more experience.

Lmao Carter, the guy is a joke and has no chance.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, Carroll Foy needs to switch to the Lieutenant Governor's race.

That said, I'm not as convinced Terry McAuliffe can win the Democratic Primary a second time.

He isn't Mark Warner or Tim Kaine, he has some serious ethical issues dating back to his time as a friend of the Clintons (and I'd rather not see someone connected to Bill and Hillary Clinton win anyways.)

I don't see why he shouldn't win unless he screws up in the coming months. T-Mac has not just wide name recognition, he also has tons of ressources, will get big endorsements and has deep connections to the communities around the state, especially African Americans. And his record as governor is pretty strong in the first place.

What I really like about him is that he focuses on education and the economy, particularly small businesses. Democrats need to talk more about this stuff. He will be an amazing governor (again) who gets things done.

[President Johnson]

I thought Carroll Foy would be a good candidate for at least the second spot, but looks like this won't happen. Accusing T-Mac of racist dogwhistles for citing his experience in the job is laughable and makes me support him even more. To the best of my knowledge, T-Mac has good relations with the African American community in his state and his campaign has numerous blacks in senior roles. He should win handily both the primary and general and will be an awesome governor again.

[President Johnson]

On FB, Amanda Chase calls for Trump to declare martial law:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530291-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-in-virginia-calls-on-trump-todeclare-martial?fbclid=IwAR0elp0taQbxBAP7KBXCE_Q3_55Yj1eNaBAQfNRqM26cFpLPx0y-IOn9oPU

What a f**king lunatic. But I never have faith in VAGOP to do anything smart at a convention. And let's be honest, she'll run as a third-party spoiler anyway.

Yeah, they completely lost it. They're the same joke as the Arizona Republican Party, which could very well end up with the same fate by the middle or end of this decade.

[President Johnson]

Lmao Carter.

Having such a relatively wide field should further help T-Mac, who has by far the biggest name recognition. Assuming all contender even make it to the primary.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1354402623030489088

Who's this guy? Also boo at bashing California.

[President Johnson]

I’m very excited for the inevitable “tossup/lean D” takes this year

This will be funny to bump once T-Mac easily won the election.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Fairfax is an embarrassment who should have been forced to resign back in 2019. Can't wait for T-Mac to clobber him in the primary.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/CarterElliottIV/status/1386763469387702274?s=20

GG TMac. Time to open a prediction: will TMac win every county and independent city in the primary or lose a handful?

The T-Mac Train is rolling full steam. The guy actually would be a great president as well.

[President Johnson]

You know it's a boring race when there's long drawn-out arguments over whether the Democrat will win by 5% or 10%

Literally everyone on this site already knows this is Likely or Safe Terrence Richard McAuliffe (D).

[President Johnson]

I'm sorry if this was discussed earlier, but why are the Republicans holding a convention instead of a normal primary just like the Democrats do?

[President Johnson]

My prediction is that T-Mac will win 53-46%. So not much change from 2017.

[President Johnson]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Well, but so called "Fake Virginia" makes up a larger share of the population. And that's how elections are won.

[President Johnson]

If anything, Trump's endorsement will hurt the guy. He's toxic in NoVa.

[President Johnson]

Interesting takes, but I disagree. I doubt Virginia elections one year ahead of the midterms tell us much of anything.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1393990656318660611

[President Johnson]

I think T-Mac will easily clear 50% in the primary election.

[President Johnson]

Glad T-Mac is returning, and hope VA will get rid of its ridiculous archaic "no consecutive terms" law like KY did over 20 years ago.

Ehhh... I think it's kind of a cool ideosyncracy.  If they are going to reform something, they should get rid of the odd-year elections for state offices and move Governor/LG/AG to presidential years. 

I actually like that. It gives us election nerds something to follow every year. Plus as someone who follows New Jersey politics, it's nice that things are less nationalized because they don't coincide with midterms or presidential years.

As I understand it, Alben just wants to get rid of the one term limit. I definitely agree with that. As for the off year election, they can keep this for election nerds.

[President Johnson]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

Yeah, agreed. McAuliffe is totally fine but I feel like Caroll Foy would've been an amazing candidate. It's really too bad.

She should have switched to the lt. governor race and offer to support T-Mac in exchange for him endorsing her for the position and for governor in four years. Then she would also have had more experience under her belt. With T-Mac's help, she would have won the nomination for lt. governor and be the frontrunner for 2025.

[President Johnson]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

Yeah, agreed. McAuliffe is totally fine but I feel like Caroll Foy would've been an amazing candidate. It's really too bad.

She should have switched to the lt. governor race and offer to support T-Mac in exchange for him endorsing her for the position and for governor in four years. Then she would also have had more experience under her belt. With T-Mac's help, she would have won the nomination for lt. governor and be the frontrunner for 2025.

I suspect it's degrading to have to 'wait your turn' - Herring has had to do it twice already. However there was some regret among twitter Dems when neither did such a move earlier in the year, and instead the Jennifer's choose to attack each other for potential superiority.

Could be interpreted as such, but I consider it a sense of political pragmatism and a careful weighing of options. Unfortunately for her now is that she also gave up her seat in the legislature for a gubernatorial run that's a real longshot.

[President Johnson]

Great result for T-Mac! Both margin- and turnout-wise.

His acceptance speech was also pretty firy in attacking the Republicans. I think he'll win by a similar margin than Northam did in 2017 and be able to get a lot of good things done now that Democrats control the state legislature, unlike in his first term (in which he already governed well). He'd actually be a great president as well.

[President Johnson]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

[President Johnson]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

your prediction is about the same margin as 2017.

Yeah, that's unrealistic IMO.  Between Trump being out of office and Republicans having a much stronger candidate than the alt-right curious former Enron lobbyist they ran last time, there's every reason to expect a closer election this time. 

IMO it will be similar to the 2013 margin, the legislature will flip and so could LG.  They are sleepwalking into this and really could blow it.   

Youngkin doesn't strike me as a very strong candidate. Some random businessguy without that much name ID and who has embraced Trump. A well known, well funded former governor with track record of success and deep connections in the state should easily win this matchup. Yes, I predicted a similar result as in 2017.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/ethanclynne/status/1405950168328032258

That's a great ad. I don't know why some folks actually think Youngkin is a strong candidate. Not that another Republican would be likely to beat T-Mac, but Youngkin isn't the best choice to make the Democrats sweat.