Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455591885909659651
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455592074808594438

And someone here said, Wasserman's prediction about turnout was wrong to large.


Perhaps, 114% of 2017!

Wasserman has been wrong about almost everything and even deleted one of his wrong tweets.  

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac continues his surge on PredictIt.  Now at 56c

[LimoLiberal]

Arlington at 45% turnout at 1:30 PM!

https://twitter.com/ArlingtonVotes/status/1455593144914006028

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455592521078300675

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455591887327334400?s=20

Given how easy VA Dems made it to vote and how polarized the state can get, it was quite predictable that this would happen.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455590841200881673

These GOP tweets rarely have actual data...

Early turnout reports are fantastic and accurate when they support my narrative/what I want to happen, and completely anecdotal and not trustworthy when they don't.

Not true. Not saying Chaz is wrong, he could totally be right. But it's really easy to just say "oh this county is having heavy turnout" without any numbers...

Chaz is certainly correct with Hanover. Educated and suburban but still Republican. NOVA turnout as of far is good for dems and much more important than a county of 110k.

[Gass3268]

Dave changed his opinion on Charlottesville.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455592521078300675?s=20

[Greedo punched first]

How does it look for T-Mac?

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like Arlington hit 44% turnout.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455592001538334722?s=20

I'm not saying this isn't true - but we've had very scattered reports from GOP areas, so where is he seeing this? I've only seen a handful of tweets about red counties.

[kwabbit]

Turnout looks as one would expect, honestly. An off year state election is not going to get explosive turnout, and voters are going to be disproportionately educated, White, and wealthy.

One potential factor is work from home. Areas with higher rates of work from home, such a a very educated areas such as Charlottesville and NOVA should have more turnout earlier in the day, while working class areas should have turnout later in the day. That is not to say later turnout will be better for Republicans; this factor both explains lack of turnout in Republican rurals as well as Black/Hispanic areas like parts of NOVA, Richmond city, Hampton Roads cities or the Southside especially.

There are a dearth of reports from the suburban areas Youngkin needs. I haven’t seen any hard data from VA beach,  Chesapeake, Hanover, Chesterfield. That would go a long in explaining if high NOVA turnout is Dem enthusiasm or simply an intense suburban vote in a campaign that has revolved around them. If those counties came out to vote, it could be that Youngkin might have a relative turnout advantage among suburbanites, ie the drop out among Dem suburbanites is greater than R suburbanites.

Overall, much can’t be gleaned from turnout reports thus far. I do concede that it is on the whole promising for McAuliffe, but that the error bars and explanations are so wide that we don’t know that much more than last night.

[Non Swing Voter]

I had hoped Dems would hit 900,000 turnout in NOVA.  I don't see any scenario now in which they don't, particularly given what's going on in Fairfax.

[Lief 🗽]

Did any of the polls model an increase over 2017’s turnout? I thought the consensus was that turnout would be lower, but it seems like there’s a good chance it’s actually higher now?

[wbrocks67]

Obviously it's awful that it's motivated by fear of each other, but it is refreshing to think we might be heading toward a trend of consistently higher turnout. Our democracy has long had a low participation problem.

Yep. It shouldn't take the fear of the other side winning just to get people out every time. Frustrating that - if T-Mac does end up winning - it could just be because Dems who were lazy before finally got up and voted only because of a possible Youngkin victory.

[wbrocks67]

Did any of the polls model an increase over 2017’s turnout? I thought the consensus was that turnout would be lower, but it seems like there’s a good chance it’s actually higher now?

You're right - I believe Fox or one of the more recent polls only estimated turnout at like 2.2-2.3M

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dave changed his opinion on Charlottesville.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455592521078300675?s=20

It must've been painful for him to tweet this.

[Non Swing Voter]

Did any of the polls model an increase over 2017’s turnout? I thought the consensus was that turnout would be lower, but it seems like there’s a good chance it’s actually higher now?

You're right - I believe Fox or one of the more recent polls only estimated turnout at like 2.2-2.3M

LMAO.  We've already blown well past that.

[kwabbit]

Did any of the polls model an increase over 2017’s turnout? I thought the consensus was that turnout would be lower, but it seems like there’s a good chance it’s actually higher now?

I don’t know what they were expecting, but turnout has been huge in the Trump era and this election has seen heavy coverage while VA has only grown since 2017. I was seeing around 3M a lot, maybe I was only seeing the more optimistic predictions. That’s where it’s heading though.

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac now at 58c on PredictIt.  It was free money a few days ago, but I'm not into internet gambling so...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Dave changed his opinion on Charlottesville.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455592521078300675?s=20

It must've been painful for him to tweet this.

Is there a new conspiracy theory among left-wings that Wasserman is anti-D or something?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did any of the polls model an increase over 2017’s turnout? I thought the consensus was that turnout would be lower, but it seems like there’s a good chance it’s actually higher now?

You're right - I believe Fox or one of the more recent polls only estimated turnout at like 2.2-2.3M

Jesus Christ...2.2 to 2.3 million...

[Non Swing Voter]

Dave changed his opinion on Charlottesville.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455592521078300675?s=20

It must've been painful for him to tweet this.

Is there a new conspiracy theory among left-wings that Wasserman is anti-D or something?

No.  He obviously leans R.  It's more just that his takes are awful/often wrong yet he's really arrogant about them. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Did any of the polls model an increase over 2017’s turnout? I thought the consensus was that turnout would be lower, but it seems like there’s a good chance it’s actually higher now?

You're right - I believe Fox or one of the more recent polls only estimated turnout at like 2.2-2.3M

How did you calculate their "estimated turnout"?

[wbrocks67]

Dave changed his opinion on Charlottesville.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455592521078300675?s=20

It must've been painful for him to tweet this.

Is there a new conspiracy theory among left-wings that Wasserman is anti-D or something?

IMO no but definitely tries to play both sides when we can.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455592001538334722?s=20

This would be consistent with a McAuliffe victory by low to mid single digits.