Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration
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  Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration  (Read 352707 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #3575 on: November 02, 2021, 12:40:31 PM »
Depending on the results, I'd be very interested to see how 1/6 affected the race, especially in NOVA. You have a lot of people who lived very close to DC and the Capitol Attack, and you'd think they wouldn't be too keen on Republicans of any kind after that. But who knows.

I just know we're gonna start having meltdowns again at 5pm when Education is the #1 issue on the exit polls with like 40% or something and then the "Youngkin is definitely winning!" takes set in lol.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3576 on: November 02, 2021, 12:41:33 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 02, 2021, 12:40:31 PM
Depending on the results, I'd be very interested to see how 1/6 affected the race, especially in NOVA. You have a lot of people who lived very close to DC and the Capitol Attack, and you'd think they wouldn't be too keen on Republicans of any kind after that. But who knows.

I just know we're gonna start having meltdowns again at 5pm when Education is the #1 issue on the exit polls with like 40% or something and then the "Youngkin is definitely winning!" takes set in lol.

We already knew the GOP was full of traitors. 
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BigSerg
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« Reply #3577 on: November 02, 2021, 12:42:06 PM »
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #3578 on: November 02, 2021, 12:42:25 PM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3579 on: November 02, 2021, 12:42:34 PM »
Here's something - 70% Gillespie county is at ~20K as of 1pm. Total of 25K votes in 2017.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #3580 on: November 02, 2021, 12:42:47 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 12:39:55 PM


Holy sh**.  This is an off-year Gov's race...

Where is this?
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #3581 on: November 02, 2021, 12:43:05 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 02, 2021, 12:35:58 PM
I can’t believe people are taking a victory lap now. Just wait for real results.

By people you mean like 3-4 posters?
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« Reply #3582 on: November 02, 2021, 12:43:12 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2021, 12:42:25 PM


These GOP tweets rarely have actual data...
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« Reply #3583 on: November 02, 2021, 12:43:49 PM »
Quote from: Duke of York on November 02, 2021, 12:42:47 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 12:39:55 PM


Holy sh**.  This is an off-year Gov's race...

Where is this?

Inner NOVA.  Extremely Dem leaning.  Filled with young voters too.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3584 on: November 02, 2021, 12:44:50 PM »
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 12:42:06 PM


Could be. Also depends on what turnout typically is for those areas. 20-30% could either be way lower than it usually is, unless those areas only see that amount of turnout typically.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3585 on: November 02, 2021, 12:45:30 PM »
T-Mac is up to 55 on PredictIt now.  Is this a new high for today?
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BigSerg
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« Reply #3586 on: November 02, 2021, 12:45:47 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 12:43:12 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2021, 12:42:25 PM


These GOP tweets rarely have actual data...

Quote
Early turnout reports are fantastic and accurate when they support my narrative/what I want to happen, and completely anecdotal and not trustworthy when they don't.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3587 on: November 02, 2021, 12:45:48 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 12:43:12 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2021, 12:42:25 PM


These GOP tweets rarely have actual data...

Right, it would be nice if he actually talked to the registrar's office if they had actual data on % turnout.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3588 on: November 02, 2021, 12:46:20 PM »
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 12:45:47 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 12:43:12 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2021, 12:42:25 PM


These GOP tweets rarely have actual data...

Quote
Early turnout reports are fantastic and accurate when they support my narrative/what I want to happen, and completely anecdotal and not trustworthy when they don't.

Not true. Not saying Chaz is wrong, he could totally be right. But it's really easy to just say "oh this county is having heavy turnout" without any numbers...
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BigSerg
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« Reply #3589 on: November 02, 2021, 12:46:49 PM »
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3590 on: November 02, 2021, 12:47:03 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 02, 2021, 12:35:58 PM
I can’t believe people are taking a victory lap now. Just wait for real results.
Noting the idea that turnout being low among Ds is not happening=/=taking a victory lap.
Noting that people who first voted for Obama in 2008 are now reliable D voters=/=taking a victory lap
The vast majority of people who have posted in this thread do not think this race is safe T-Mac.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3591 on: November 02, 2021, 12:47:58 PM »
Looks like turnout data is much easier to come by in D-leaning counties. Only looking at those, things seem to be going okay, but then you occasionally get news out of the R-leaning counties and suddenly the Fox poll doesn’t seem too crazy.
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Pollster
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« Reply #3592 on: November 02, 2021, 12:48:09 PM »


Hard to see McAuliffe lose in this scenario, unless Youngkin is dramatically outperforming partisanship.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3593 on: November 02, 2021, 12:48:22 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 02, 2021, 12:46:20 PM
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 12:45:47 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 12:43:12 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2021, 12:42:25 PM


These GOP tweets rarely have actual data...

Quote
Early turnout reports are fantastic and accurate when they support my narrative/what I want to happen, and completely anecdotal and not trustworthy when they don't.

Not true. Not saying Chaz is wrong, he could totally be right. But it's really easy to just say "oh this county is having heavy turnout" without any numbers...

The ignore feature can be really helpful.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #3594 on: November 02, 2021, 12:49:12 PM »
Quote from: BigSerg on November 02, 2021, 12:45:47 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 02, 2021, 12:43:12 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2021, 12:42:25 PM


These GOP tweets rarely have actual data...

Quote
Early turnout reports are fantastic and accurate when they support my narrative/what I want to happen, and completely anecdotal and not trustworthy when they don't.

There's a big difference between actual data provided and someone randomly saying they are seeing heavy turnout.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #3595 on: November 02, 2021, 12:49:32 PM »
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #3596 on: November 02, 2021, 12:49:50 PM »



And someone here said, Wasserman's prediction about turnout was wrong to large.


Perhaps, 114% of 2017!
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« Reply #3597 on: November 02, 2021, 12:50:02 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2021, 12:47:58 PM
Looks like turnout data is much easier to come by in D-leaning counties. Only looking at those, things seem to be going okay, but then you occasionally get news out of the R-leaning counties and suddenly the Fox poll doesn’t seem too crazy.


The issue for the GOP is they've got like 80 counties and we've got like 10.  So if we have high turnout in Fairfax, which is the population of like 40-50 of their counties, they have to maintain high turnout in ALL of their counties.  So far there's no evidence of that.  Though of course it's possible.
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Devils30
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« Reply #3598 on: November 02, 2021, 12:50:09 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2021, 12:47:58 PM
Looks like turnout data is much easier to come by in D-leaning counties. Only looking at those, things seem to be going okay, but then you occasionally get news out of the R-leaning counties and suddenly the Fox poll doesn’t seem too crazy.


Even Hanover is an educated R county where Rs have lost ground in recent years. Any reports in places like Buchanan, Russell in SW VA?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3599 on: November 02, 2021, 12:50:52 PM »
Oh, yay. LL is back.
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