Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[roxas11]

I do wonder how much anything that has happened over the past few days or even next few days will actually matter in end since 1/3 of people have already voted in this election.

I will say that if Glenn Youngkin does lose this election the early vote will be one of the main reasons for his loss

[LAB-LIB]

This thread has really become --- something.

Either way, it's not a sure bet by any means, but Youngkin is the favorite right now, and I'm saying that as a Democrat who wants McAuliffe to win. Maybe some of the others here who are from Virginia have some information that I don't have, but Youngkin has the momentum and is now leading in the polling averages.

[Non Swing Voter]

Republican organization pretends to be Democrats trying to pull a bad faith political stunt that would only serve to make Dems look bad. Absolutely horrific tactics from the Youngkin campaign and the Lincoln Project. I call on all Republicans with integrity to condemn them both.

so all 2 of them nationwide?

[Virginiá]

Post statistics for this thread, first 25 users, highest post count to lowest:




...

This thread does have issues, and it's not BigSerg

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

🍿 🍿 🍿 🍿

Get you’re thread watching popcorn here! Just one recommend for each popcorn! You need ya popcorn while you watch whatever the heck is going on here!

[Non Swing Voter]

Post statistics for this thread, first 25 users, highest post count to lowest:




...

This thread does have issues, and it's not BigSerg

It's outrageous that this is the concern rather than this:

Starting to think Lincoln Project amplified this on purpose to bring attention back to Cville and how racist the GOP is generally.  If so, good move.  The Trumpkintards are no longer talking about education (another losing issue for them nonetheless).

I hope your mom breaks your ankles

[/quote]

[ElectionsGuy]

I do wonder how much anything that has happened over the past few days or even next few days will actually matter in end since 1/3 of people have already voted in this election.

I will say that if Glenn Youngkin does lose this election the early vote will be one of the main reasons for his loss

Here's the thing though: Most people who vote early are people who are going to vote Democrat anyway. And logically, are you going to vote early if you're on the fence going into the final weeks?The race has tightened partially because undecided voters have decided and they're going more for Youngkin. If you're someone who's undecided, you're not going to be voting super early, so this argument is not as strong as it can seem.

[Virginiá]

It's outrageous that this is the concern rather than this:

A moderator deleted that post last night at 7pm, within 10 minutes of it being posted. You're free to report other posts that violate the ToS.

But you also need to chill out and stop flooding this thread with responses to literally everything, including hostile posts towards other users and other people who have different opinions than you. We all get it, you think the polls are wrong and Virginia will continue to vote Democratic. You don't need to keep restating it and throwing shade at people who disagree. You've been doing variations of this for 14 pages worth of posts!

[Non Swing Voter]

It's outrageous that this is the concern rather than this:

A moderator deleted that post last night at 7pm. You're free to report other posts that violate the ToS.

But you also need to chill out and stop flooding this thread with responses to literally everything, including hostile posts towards other users and other people who have different opinions than you. We all get it, you think the polls are wrong and Virginia will continue to vote Democratic. You don't need to keep restating it and throwing shade at people who disagree. You've been doing variations of this for 14 pages worth of posts!

This is creating a false narrative.  I only post in the Virginia related threads so obviously I am going to have more back and forth in it.  Many posters are posting MORE than me on a daily basis but are doing so in a greater range of threads.  But fine, I will post less in this thread.  I have made my point. 

I still do not think just deleting the Matty post is sufficient.  He has literally made numerous posts directed to me (and probably others) calling for violence.  This is clearly NOT related to elections at all and shouldn't be given a slap on the wrist.  He also continually lies about me, saying I am a Dem activist and gov. employee.  Neither of these things are true.  It's defamatory. 

[roxas11]

I do wonder how much anything that has happened over the past few days or even next few days will actually matter in end since 1/3 of people have already voted in this election.

I will say that if Glenn Youngkin does lose this election the early vote will be one of the main reasons for his loss

Here's the thing though: Most people who vote early are people who are going to vote Democrat anyway. And logically, are you going to vote early if you're on the fence going into the final weeks?The race has tightened partially because undecided voters have decided and they're going more for Youngkin. If you're someone who's undecided, you're not going to be voting super early, so this argument is not as strong as it can seem.

Maybe, but this is a huge assumption because we have no idea who has voted early at this point. It could very well be people who are going to vote Democrat like in the past, but right now there is no way of knowing that for sure

Finally, even if undecided voters do break for Youngkin at the end that still may not be enough if we honestly believe that 1/3 of all voters in virginia who came out to vote early went for terry mcauliffe...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's outrageous that this is the concern rather than this:

A moderator deleted that post last night at 7pm, within 10 minutes of it being posted. You're free to report other posts that violate the ToS.

But you also need to chill out and stop flooding this thread with responses to literally everything, including hostile posts towards other users and other people who have different opinions than you. We all get it, you think the polls are wrong and Virginia will continue to vote Democratic. You don't need to keep restating it and throwing shade at people who disagree. You've been doing variations of this for 14 pages worth of posts!

Please do not repeat false narratives about NSV that stem from misunderstandings about how he posts. You are a moderator, you ought to know better.
P.S. 346 Non-Swing Voter posts in a thread that has been up for almost as many days is not special or excessive.
(Convenient how you cite these statistics in this way when you leave out the fact this is a period of time stretching all the way back to mere days after Joe Biden was elected)

[BigSerg]

It's outrageous that this is the concern rather than this:

A moderator deleted that post last night at 7pm, within 10 minutes of it being posted. You're free to report other posts that violate the ToS.

But you also need to chill out and stop flooding this thread with responses to literally everything, including hostile posts towards other users and other people who have different opinions than you. We all get it, you think the polls are wrong and Virginia will continue to vote Democratic. You don't need to keep restating it and throwing shade at people who disagree. You've been doing variations of this for 14 pages worth of posts!

Please do not repeat false narratives about NSV that stem from misunderstandings about how he posts. You are a moderator, you ought to know better.
P.S. 346 Non-Swing Voter posts in a thread that has been up for almost as many days is not special or excessive.

You should stop defending him. Non Swing Voter has constantly mentioned and attacked me even though I have ignored him. He has only demonstrated toxic behavior and that is a fact not "a false narrative".  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

[ElectionsGuy]

I do wonder how much anything that has happened over the past few days or even next few days will actually matter in end since 1/3 of people have already voted in this election.

I will say that if Glenn Youngkin does lose this election the early vote will be one of the main reasons for his loss

Here's the thing though: Most people who vote early are people who are going to vote Democrat anyway. And logically, are you going to vote early if you're on the fence going into the final weeks?The race has tightened partially because undecided voters have decided and they're going more for Youngkin. If you're someone who's undecided, you're not going to be voting super early, so this argument is not as strong as it can seem.

Maybe, but this is a huge assumption because we have no idea who has voted early at this point. It could very well be people who are going to vote Democrat like in the past, but right now there is no way of knowing that for sure

Finally, even if undecided voters do break for Youngkin at the end that still may not be enough if we honestly believe that 1/3 of all voters in virginia who came out to vote early went for terry mcauliffe...

We have somewhat of an idea



That can be made up on election day, given that's when a majority of voters will vote this time. Most early voters are Dem-leaning, but obviously not all of them are McAuliffe voters. 200-300K vote deficit for Youngkin can be made up if election day vote looks like this:

Youngkin: 1.16 mil (58%)
McAuliffe: 0.84 mil (42%)

[Non Swing Voter]

Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

Turnout in Fairfax.

The outer counties in NOVA.

The Richmond suburbs.

Virginia Beach.

[wbrocks67]

People need to stop coming for NSV in here. There has been a LOT of messy posts in here in the past few days and there have been a LOT of other people contributing to that.

[compucomp]

Imagine being excited about a governor's election in a state you don't live in / have probably never been to... based on fake polls... over a race that your guy (a billionaire loser) will lose...

Dude, instead of spamming away on this thread, since you clearly care deeply about this race, why not volunteer your services to the Virginia Democratic Party and do some phone banking? Maybe go out and canvass for T-Mac, or organize some local events? Drive some folks to the polls since early voting is on?

[BigSerg]

I think the turnout will not sink Glenn Youngkin. it all depends on his performance with independents and ex repub moderate Biden voters

[Non Swing Voter]

Imagine being excited about a governor's election in a state you don't live in / have probably never been to... based on fake polls... over a race that your guy (a billionaire loser) will lose...

Dude, instead of spamming away on this thread, since you clearly care deeply about this race, why not volunteer your services to the Virginia Democratic Party and do some phone banking? Maybe go out and canvass for T-Mac, or organize some local events? Drive some folks to the polls since early voting is on?

I don't get involved in politics.  I did my part by donating.  I am also not "spamming."  Most of the posts in Virginia's tabulation were me responding to actual questions about Virginia benchmarks and other VA specific issues.  Again, I do not understand why the volume of posts seems to matter more than a poster actually wishing for violence.  That's never been answered to me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's outrageous that this is the concern rather than this:

A moderator deleted that post last night at 7pm, within 10 minutes of it being posted. You're free to report other posts that violate the ToS.

But you also need to chill out and stop flooding this thread with responses to literally everything, including hostile posts towards other users and other people who have different opinions than you. We all get it, you think the polls are wrong and Virginia will continue to vote Democratic. You don't need to keep restating it and throwing shade at people who disagree. You've been doing variations of this for 14 pages worth of posts!

Please do not repeat false narratives about NSV that stem from misunderstandings about how he posts. You are a moderator, you ought to know better.
P.S. 346 Non-Swing Voter posts in a thread that has been up for almost as many days is not special or excessive.

You should stop defending it. Non Swing Voter has constantly mentioned and attacked me even though I have ignored him. He has only demonstrated toxic behavior and that is a fact not "a false narrative".  

I'm not going to agree with all his assertions about you and he's wrong to think you are some new poster. But "NSV floods the thread" is just as untrue, especially when the case for it is driven by some misleading statistics that when used in this way has issues I would hope Virginia and the mods in general are merely unaware of.
Singling him as some singular villain is not right either. Blame us collectively for going too far and making it somewhat unreadable, blame the top five or so contributors, or blame no one. Blaming just one person is unfair.
Virginia is right though that you aren't a huge problem in this thread. At least individually.

[wbrocks67]

I think the turnout will not sink Glenn Youngkin. it all depends on his performance with independents and ex repub moderate Biden voters

Yeah the ultimate key here is

A) how much independents swing to Youngkin - some polls have him up by low single digits, some high single digits, and some like Wapo/Schar, up strong like 18. Gillepsie won them by 3
B) how much Democrats come out. even if Youngkin has strong turnout from Rs, there is still more Ds/D-leaners in VA, so Democrats just need to turnout stronger, which given the nationalization of this race and how the polls might scare them into showing up, may happen. Early voting suggests both sides are 'enthusiastic'

[BigSerg]

I think the turnout will not sink Glenn Youngkin. it all depends on his performance with independents and ex repub moderate Biden voters

Yeah the ultimate key here is

A) how much independents swing to Youngkin - some polls have him up by low single digits, some high single digits, and some like Wapo/Schar, up strong like 18. Gillepsie won them by 3
B) how much Democrats come out. even if Youngkin has strong turnout from Rs, there is still more Ds/D-leaners in VA, so Democrats just need to turnout stronger, which given the nationalization of this race and how the polls might scare them into showing up, may happen. Early voting suggests both sides are 'enthusiastic'

Another thing that can happen (but is very unlikely) is that rural turnout is incredibly good and unprecedented.

[wbrocks67]

I think the turnout will not sink Glenn Youngkin. it all depends on his performance with independents and ex repub moderate Biden voters

Yeah the ultimate key here is

A) how much independents swing to Youngkin - some polls have him up by low single digits, some high single digits, and some like Wapo/Schar, up strong like 18. Gillepsie won them by 3
B) how much Democrats come out. even if Youngkin has strong turnout from Rs, there is still more Ds/D-leaners in VA, so Democrats just need to turnout stronger, which given the nationalization of this race and how the polls might scare them into showing up, may happen. Early voting suggests both sides are 'enthusiastic'

Another thing that can happen (but is very unlikely) is that rural turnout is incredibly good and unprecedented.

Yep, I'm curious to see if especially SWPA ends up coming out huge on Election Day or if Trump not being on the ballot really keeps some home. The race is being very nationalized so it might spur some Trump voters who might not have come out to come out, so yeah that'll be interesting for sure. Also interested to see if D voters come out on Election Day as well, since both sides have had to do that historically in Virginia.

Also, does anyone know why Youngkin is basically ignoring Miyares and Sears? lmao. Has he campaigned with them at all? McAuliffe is really pushing the whole trifecta, even putting Herring and Ayala on his signs. Youngkin seems like he's totally disconnected from Miyares and Sears.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the turnout will not sink Glenn Youngkin. it all depends on his performance with independents and ex repub moderate Biden voters

Yeah the ultimate key here is

A) how much independents swing to Youngkin - some polls have him up by low single digits, some high single digits, and some like Wapo/Schar, up strong like 18. Gillepsie won them by 3
B) how much Democrats come out. even if Youngkin has strong turnout from Rs, there is still more Ds/D-leaners in VA, so Democrats just need to turnout stronger, which given the nationalization of this race and how the polls might scare them into showing up, may happen. Early voting suggests both sides are 'enthusiastic'

Another thing that can happen (but is very unlikely) is that rural turnout is incredibly good and unprecedented.

Yes, rural turnout being incredibly good would be key for Youngkin, and if he isn't doing so well in NoVa he NEEDS to get good turnout from rural VA.

[BigSerg]

I think the turnout will not sink Glenn Youngkin. it all depends on his performance with independents and ex repub moderate Biden voters

Yeah the ultimate key here is

A) how much independents swing to Youngkin - some polls have him up by low single digits, some high single digits, and some like Wapo/Schar, up strong like 18. Gillepsie won them by 3
B) how much Democrats come out. even if Youngkin has strong turnout from Rs, there is still more Ds/D-leaners in VA, so Democrats just need to turnout stronger, which given the nationalization of this race and how the polls might scare them into showing up, may happen. Early voting suggests both sides are 'enthusiastic'

Another thing that can happen (but is very unlikely) is that rural turnout is incredibly good and unprecedented.

Yep, I'm curious to see if especially SWPA ends up coming out huge on Election Day or if Trump not being on the ballot really keeps some home. The race is being very nationalized so it might spur some Trump voters who might not have come out to come out, so yeah that'll be interesting for sure. Also interested to see if D voters come out on Election Day as well, since both sides have had to do that historically in Virginia.

Also, does anyone know why Youngkin is basically ignoring Miyares and Sears? lmao. Has he campaigned with them at all? McAuliffe is really pushing the whole trifecta, even putting Herring and Ayala on his signs. Youngkin seems like he's totally disconnected from Miyares and Sears.

Maybe they are toxic? (more lunatics/trumpers/qanon)