Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the turnout will not sink Glenn Youngkin. it all depends on his performance with independents and ex repub moderate Biden voters

Yeah the ultimate key here is

A) how much independents swing to Youngkin - some polls have him up by low single digits, some high single digits, and some like Wapo/Schar, up strong like 18. Gillepsie won them by 3
B) how much Democrats come out. even if Youngkin has strong turnout from Rs, there is still more Ds/D-leaners in VA, so Democrats just need to turnout stronger, which given the nationalization of this race and how the polls might scare them into showing up, may happen. Early voting suggests both sides are 'enthusiastic'

Another thing that can happen (but is very unlikely) is that rural turnout is incredibly good and unprecedented.

Yep, I'm curious to see if especially SWPA ends up coming out huge on Election Day or if Trump not being on the ballot really keeps some home. The race is being very nationalized so it might spur some Trump voters who might not have come out to come out, so yeah that'll be interesting for sure. Also interested to see if D voters come out on Election Day as well, since both sides have had to do that historically in Virginia.

Also, does anyone know why Youngkin is basically ignoring Miyares and Sears? lmao. Has he campaigned with them at all? McAuliffe is really pushing the whole trifecta, even putting Herring and Ayala on his signs. Youngkin seems like he's totally disconnected from Miyares and Sears.

Maybe they are toxic? (more lunatics/trumpers/qanon)

I would not be surprised if so. Youngkin needs to maintain distance if he wants to win marginal voters in NoVa.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

Richmond would be a good area to watch for another benchmark of Dem performance/turnout.  Swing areas like Virginia Beach and Chesterfield would be good to watch as well.

Southwest Virginia would be good to watch in terms of how Youngkin is doing compared to Trump there, both in terms of turnout and vote share.

Really, though, NoVA is going to be the most important thing to watch.  If Youngkin wins, it will likely be because he overperformed in NoVA (he won't win any of those counties, but would need to overperform, such as by getting around 43% of the vote in Loudon, and 35% in Fairfax).

[wbrocks67]

I think the turnout will not sink Glenn Youngkin. it all depends on his performance with independents and ex repub moderate Biden voters

Yeah the ultimate key here is

A) how much independents swing to Youngkin - some polls have him up by low single digits, some high single digits, and some like Wapo/Schar, up strong like 18. Gillepsie won them by 3
B) how much Democrats come out. even if Youngkin has strong turnout from Rs, there is still more Ds/D-leaners in VA, so Democrats just need to turnout stronger, which given the nationalization of this race and how the polls might scare them into showing up, may happen. Early voting suggests both sides are 'enthusiastic'

Another thing that can happen (but is very unlikely) is that rural turnout is incredibly good and unprecedented.

Yep, I'm curious to see if especially SWPA ends up coming out huge on Election Day or if Trump not being on the ballot really keeps some home. The race is being very nationalized so it might spur some Trump voters who might not have come out to come out, so yeah that'll be interesting for sure. Also interested to see if D voters come out on Election Day as well, since both sides have had to do that historically in Virginia.

Also, does anyone know why Youngkin is basically ignoring Miyares and Sears? lmao. Has he campaigned with them at all? McAuliffe is really pushing the whole trifecta, even putting Herring and Ayala on his signs. Youngkin seems like he's totally disconnected from Miyares and Sears.

Maybe they are toxic? (more lunatics/trumpers/qanon)

I would not be surprised if so. Youngkin needs to maintain distance if he wants to win marginal voters in NoVa.

I don't have as much knowledge of Miyares, but I've seen a few posters say Sears is a bit more batsh*t so this could make sense.

Youngkin probably figures if he has any chance of winning, it's by himself and not attached to others. Likewise, there's an obviously big chance he could win but have a Democratic LG and AG

[wbrocks67]

This could be a small glimmer of hope for T-Mac on Tuesday if it gets done. Obviously would help a lot more though if the vote was Monday.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1454480438928592896

[Skye]

Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

Also all those Trump 16 --- Biden 20 counties (Stafford, Chesterfield, VA Beach and Chesapeake) should be voting for Youngkin for him to have a chance to win statewide.

[Roll Roons]

I think the only really competitive GOP-held Delegate seat is Kirk Cox's open district (HD-66) in Chesterfield/Colonial Heights.

But all of these Dem-held seats seem fairly competitive:
HD-10 (Wendy Gooditis, Leesburg)
HD-12 (Chris Hurst, Blacksburg)
HD-28 (Josh Cole, Fredericksburg/Stafford)
HD-40 (Dan Helmer, Centreville/Clifton)
HD-73 (Rodney Willett, Henrico)
HD-75 (Roz Tyler, Southside)
HD-83 (Nancy Guy, Virginia Beach)
HD-85 (Alex Askew, Virginia Beach)

All of them are held by freshman or sophomore incumbents. Given the state of the playing field, the GOP is virtually guaranteed a net gain.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

NoVA is Dem, so is Metro Richmond. Shenandoah and the bulk of the rest of rural VA (especially SW VA) are Rep.
Virginia Beach and the Hampton Roads will be important. Northam doing well there (he's from Accomack) in 2017 fortified his position vs.  Gillespie.
Youngkin needs to do well in rural VA to win to even have a chance at winning, but that's basically a given. The election is most likely to pivot on two things above all: NoVA early votes creating a vote bank for Democrats and rural Election Day turnout.

[ElectionsGuy]

It is HILARIOUS that anybody could believe somebody who was going to sit out the election would be like "well now that Congress is holding a vote on a piece of legislation, I'm going to go out and vote for my state's governor". Because a person who's on the fence about voting is paying that much attention to the news cycle anyway.

[cg41386]

This thread has really become --- something.

Either way, it's not a sure bet by any means, but Youngkin is the favorite right now, and I'm saying that as a Democrat who wants McAuliffe to win. Maybe some of the others here who are from Virginia have some information that I don't have, but Youngkin has the momentum and is now leading in the polling averages.

Nope, and there haven't been *that* many polls, and that likely bogus Fox poll is skewing the averages.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is HILARIOUS that anybody could believe somebody who was going to sit out the election would be like "well now that Congress is holding a vote on a piece of legislation, I'm going to go out and vote for my state's governor". Because a person who's on the fence about voting is paying that much attention to the news cycle anyway.

It's very unlikely that a swing voter would have decided to vote on basis of this thing, this late on the cycle. The lion's share of swing voters have probably already decided how they'll vote.
I see the horrific stuff from Loudoun as being more influential than this.

[wbrocks67]

It is HILARIOUS that anybody could believe somebody who was going to sit out the election would be like "well now that Congress is holding a vote on a piece of legislation, I'm going to go out and vote for my state's governor". Because a person who's on the fence about voting is paying that much attention to the news cycle anyway.

No one said that. No one said anything about someone sitting out and then jumping in just because of this.

It could however make an impact on swing voters who may be on the fence and think that Youngkin is a better choice because Ds aren't getting anything done. Or it could easily boost engagement among Ds who may not be 'enthusiastic.'

Either side will take any good news they can take at this point.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The real story here is that the labour shortage is so bad that the Virginia Democrats couldn't even find some actors or at least temp workers to pose as Neo-Nazis for an afternoon.

If it had been random people they'd have gotten away with it but they were so short of workers that they had to send a communications director and a financial director. So when someone went "hey, this sounds like a dirty trick the Virginia Democrats would pull" and searched "Virginia Democrats" on Facebook their big stupid faces were right at the top.

These stooges make Nixon's thugs look like James Bond.

Source???

Ron Paul's workers (Apparently becoming increasingly unemployed with COVID-19 Mandates and all that) appear to be increasingly supporting an outright strike against COVID-19 workplace Mandates (Trust me I know enough of them from working in the factory).

Out of your Element Donny...

https://twitter.com/TimRunsHisMouth/status/1454158805785268227

https://twitter.com/goodblackdude/status/1454172549844135938

https://twitter.com/ACTBrigitte/status/1454180707752947720

https://twitter.com/lawindsor/status/1454211815806619651

[LAB-LIB]

This thread has really become --- something.

Either way, it's not a sure bet by any means, but Youngkin is the favorite right now, and I'm saying that as a Democrat who wants McAuliffe to win. Maybe some of the others here who are from Virginia have some information that I don't have, but Youngkin has the momentum and is now leading in the polling averages.

Nope, and there haven't been *that* many polls, and that likely bogus Fox poll is skewing the averages.

Obviously the Fox Poll was biased. Youngkin is not winning the election by eight, but it is clear that he has the momentum and his supporters are much more motivated. It is also very close right now and McAuliffe can still pull this out, but he hasn't run a good campaign.

[Chips]

Here's what I'll say today.

If McAuliffe wins, it will probably have officially certified Virginia's status as a solidly blue state.

If Youngkin wins, McAuliffe's campaign will surely go down as a perfect example for politicians on both sides on how NOT to run a campaign.

[Non Swing Voter]

Not to get embroiled in the Lincoln Project drama, which is a non issue in this election, but if holding a tiki torch means being a "white supremacist" as the tweet above implies, why did Trump say there were "fine people on both sides?" when everyone on one side was holding tiki torches?  (Logic)

[hyouzel the predictor]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

[Chips]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

I agree 100%. If he loses, it will go down as perhaps the best example of how a campaign should not be run. Period, End of story.

[Non Swing Voter]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

do you actually think T-Mac will lose?  Yeah Youngkin has a ton of signs in Loudoun and Fairfax (he did in the "primary" as well btw) but if you go down side streets to real neighborhoods it's clear most people are voting for T-Mac, even in wealthy burbs.  Plus Dem turnout has been relatively high in terms of early voting. 

Plus what does it matter if you have people handing out voting guides early?  When I voted last year early, there were numerous GOP operatives at the Fairfax site handing out literature.  Nobody wanted it.  That was when it was clearly to me that Dems were killing it with the early vote.  How do you know that's not happening this year as well?  (the most likely scenario).

[hyouzel the predictor]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

I agree 100%. If he loses, it will go down as perhaps the best example of how a campaign should not be run. Period, End of story.

McAuliffe 2021 = Hillary 2016 in my eyes in terms of candidate strength (establishment wealthy Dems with high name recognition, won a primary against a progressive and is facing significant third party votes in the general, facing a businessman opponent who is considered an outsider, considered safe race until very end and.... we don't know this part yet)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

Any individuals who are particularly incompetent in the VA Dems, or is it too broadly spread out to justify singling out anyone?

[hyouzel the predictor]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

do you actually think T-Mac will lose?  Yeah Youngkin has a ton of signs in Loudoun and Fairfax (he did in the "primary" as well btw) but if you go down side streets to real neighborhoods it's clear most people are voting for T-Mac, even in wealthy burbs.  Plus Dem turnout has been relatively high in terms of early voting. 

Plus what does it matter if you have people handing out voting guides early?  When I voted last year early, there were numerous GOP operatives at the Fairfax site handing out literature.  Nobody wanted it.  That was when it was clearly to me that Dems were killing it with the early vote.  How do you know that's not happening this year as well?  (the most likely scenario).

I can't answer that until I see what ED turnout looks like, but I can definitively say that if Youngkin wins it will be with only a plurality rather than a majority. As for the GOP handing out lit, my point is the Dems have been completely absent in every way. No signs, no canvassing, no public events, no nothing. Loudoun has controlled the narrative of this entire election and Terry has not held a public event once. He has visited several times to do canvassing but you would think he would bring in people like Biden and Obama to really ramp up enthusiasm...

Ayala>Herring>Terry>HoD in my eyes, and either way, Ayala is the clear favorite in 2025 which is kinda cool

[Non Swing Voter]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

do you actually think T-Mac will lose?  Yeah Youngkin has a ton of signs in Loudoun and Fairfax (he did in the "primary" as well btw) but if you go down side streets to real neighborhoods it's clear most people are voting for T-Mac, even in wealthy burbs.  Plus Dem turnout has been relatively high in terms of early voting. 

Plus what does it matter if you have people handing out voting guides early?  When I voted last year early, there were numerous GOP operatives at the Fairfax site handing out literature.  Nobody wanted it.  That was when it was clearly to me that Dems were killing it with the early vote.  How do you know that's not happening this year as well?  (the most likely scenario).

I can't answer that until I see what ED turnout looks like, but I can definitively say that if Youngkin wins it will be with only a plurality rather than a majority. As for the GOP handing out lit, my point is the Dems have been completely absent in every way. No signs, no canvassing, no public events, no nothing. Loudoun has controlled the narrative of this entire election and Terry has not held a public event once. He has visited several times to do canvassing but you would think he would bring in people like Biden and Obama to really ramp up enthusiasm...

Ayala>Herring>Terry>HoD in my eyes, and either way, Ayala is the clear favorite in 2025 which is kinda cool

I agree with the ordering, but I think all three win comfortably.

[hyouzel the predictor]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

Any individuals who are particularly incompetent in the VA Dems, or is it too broadly spread out to justify singling out anyone?

I know there was a major campaign restructuring in the summer for Terry's campaign that resulted in 2 months of dead silence while all the CRT/SB bullsh**t was going on, so that definitely didn't help. I don't think it is an issue with VA Dems as much as it is Terry's campaign just not knowing what they are doing. They clearly thought this race was safe until September so they didn't even campaign or do anything until that point whereas Youngkin has been out fighting all year. He has run an excellent campaign all things considered.


Also, as a Loudoun resident and LCPS student, I think it's crucial that everybody understands what is happening with this rape situation. The blame in placing this kid back into LCPS has nothing to do with the school board as it was out of their hands at that point (criminal charges). They legitimately did not know what happened as it was in the hands of the DA Buta Biberaj. I don't know why she decided the kid wasn't a risk (I've heard he was SPED) but she is the one who made the decision to place him back in schools, not the school board. Also, there is no evidence that this kid is trans or even was wearing a skirt other than what this girl said. I also want to say that the walkouts last week were not political in nature other than being mad at LCPS for tolerating rape culture in general (there was a specific situation at my school that exemplified this). As the kid literally in the front of the walkout, I can assure everyone on Atlas that it had nothing to do with trans kids, CRT, or the gubernatorial election in any way.

Also CRT is bullsh**t we learn the opposite so that's all a bunch of lies too

[hyouzel the predictor]

as someone who's worked with the mcauliffe team since march, I can tell yall that if he loses it is fully because of the terrible organization of his campaign. the loudoun and Fairfax dems are also  absolutely awful at their jobs and have let the GOP completely control the narrative. meanwhile they are handwriting postcards to safe d houses asking them to vote... at the early voting location in loudoun there are 5 GOP helpers handing out voting guides and not a single democrat there.... they truly do not have their sh**t together. trumpkin was a campaign tactic doomed to fail when the GOP candidate is essentially mitt romney... this was a perfect storm of sh**tty campaigning from the dems, so if youngkin wins, I don't think it means anything about the partisanship of the state other than the fact that va dems are SOOO BADDD

do you actually think T-Mac will lose?  Yeah Youngkin has a ton of signs in Loudoun and Fairfax (he did in the "primary" as well btw) but if you go down side streets to real neighborhoods it's clear most people are voting for T-Mac, even in wealthy burbs.  Plus Dem turnout has been relatively high in terms of early voting. 

Plus what does it matter if you have people handing out voting guides early?  When I voted last year early, there were numerous GOP operatives at the Fairfax site handing out literature.  Nobody wanted it.  That was when it was clearly to me that Dems were killing it with the early vote.  How do you know that's not happening this year as well?  (the most likely scenario).

I can't answer that until I see what ED turnout looks like, but I can definitively say that if Youngkin wins it will be with only a plurality rather than a majority. As for the GOP handing out lit, my point is the Dems have been completely absent in every way. No signs, no canvassing, no public events, no nothing. Loudoun has controlled the narrative of this entire election and Terry has not held a public event once. He has visited several times to do canvassing but you would think he would bring in people like Biden and Obama to really ramp up enthusiasm...

Ayala>Herring>Terry>HoD in my eyes, and either way, Ayala is the clear favorite in 2025 which is kinda cool

I agree with the ordering, but I think all three win comfortably.

I think that it's either very close or its a blowout. Youngkin +1 to McAuliffe +2/3 or McAuliffe +6 to McAuliffe +8.

[OSR stands with Israel]

At this point I hope Youngkin wins more to trigger NSV than even seeing my party win lol