Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[THG]

This is the most recent early voting turnout map:



This is very different from what happened in NM-1 or California. No, this doesn’t mean that I believe Youngkin will win, but an upset is less insane than how I imagined it in mid September (after I was 9 points off on the California recall).

[Devils30]

If you were Youngkin you really want to see more crossover from 2020 in these polls. Maybe they have something internally but being down 3 in a Biden +2 sample isn't really confidence inspiring. This electorate even with a Dem dropoff is unlikely to be below Biden +7-8.

[Skill and Chance]

If you were Youngkin you really want to see more crossover from 2020 in these polls. Maybe they have something internally but being down 3 in a Biden +2 sample isn't really confidence inspiring. This electorate even with a Dem dropoff is unlikely to be below Biden +7-8.

No, you don't adjust polling for recalled vote.  It's well documented that people "forget" that they voted for incumbents who are currently unpopular.  We've seen this all the time. 

[Non Swing Voter]

If you were Youngkin you really want to see more crossover from 2020 in these polls. Maybe they have something internally but being down 3 in a Biden +2 sample isn't really confidence inspiring. This electorate even with a Dem dropoff is unlikely to be below Biden +7-8.

Correct, and major dem dropoff is highly unlikely given that the Dem electorate in Virginia is MUCH more educated than the GOP electorate.  It's probably one of the most polarized electorates in terms of education in the country.

[wbrocks67]

If you were Youngkin you really want to see more crossover from 2020 in these polls. Maybe they have something internally but being down 3 in a Biden +2 sample isn't really confidence inspiring. This electorate even with a Dem dropoff is unlikely to be below Biden +7-8.

No, you don't adjust polling for recalled vote.  It's well documented that people "forget" that they voted for incumbents who are currently unpopular.  We've seen this all the time. 

Regardless, Trumpkin is not getting any crossover vote. So even if you assume Biden +5 electorate, McAuliffe is winning by like 6 or 7, given this poll. Youngkin cannot afford to have 0% crossover support unless Biden voters just literally don't come out at all.

[Non Swing Voter]

Hot take: polarized Virginia electorate votes how it normally does and T-Mac wins by high single digits despite this nonsense polling.  Most of the people trumpeting Youngkin's chances here are the same ones who actually believed the Recall vote would be close rather than the CA electorate voting how it normally does. 

[wbrocks67]

Of note: in CNN's new national poll out today, Biden's approval is 58/42 among White College+, which could certainly make the midterms (and this race) very interesting.

Overall approval is 50/49 (nationally).

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/lizchar/status/1448019083891552261

Youngkin's campaign is like a well-oiled machine.  His hand is on the pulse of what Virginia voters care about.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lizchar/status/1448019083891552261

Youngkin's campaign is like a well-oiled machine.  His hand is on the pulse of what Virginia voters care about.

which is so funny considering in an objective sense, vaccine mandates would do the opposite, and actually push more people to get vaccinated, and enjoy Christmas gatherings even more. does Youngkin want people to get covid for the holidays or something?

[It’s so Joever]

Of note: in CNN's new national poll out today, Biden's approval is 58/42 among White College+, which could certainly make the midterms (and this race) very interesting.

Overall approval is 50/49 (nationally).

TRENDS ARE REAAAAAAAAAAAAAAL

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

[THG]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Early voting turnout (which benefits Democrats) is horrendous, including in most blue regions. I don’t see how T-Mac wins by single high digits like certain users on here claim- this isn’t the turnout required for an 8 point win in the state so far.

[Non Swing Voter]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Not really.  You cannot compare a gov. election early and mail turnout with Presidential election early and mail turnout (during the height of a pandemic).  It's obviously apples to oranges.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/lizchar/status/1448019083891552261

Youngkin's campaign is like a well-oiled machine.  His hand is on the pulse of what Virginia voters care about.

which is so funny considering in an objective sense, vaccine mandates would do the opposite, and actually push more people to get vaccinated, and enjoy Christmas gatherings even more. does Youngkin want people to get covid for the holidays or something?

I don't think he wants them to get covid, in my opinion I think he's just indifferent to people dying as long as he can get fame and notoriety and he thinks going full dipsh** is the way to do it.

[SnowLabrador]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Not really.  You cannot compare a gov. election early and mail turnout with Presidential election early and mail turnout (during the height of a pandemic).  It's obviously apples to oranges.

Early voting is still pitiful. I wouldn't be too surprised if Youngkin wins at this point.

[Non Swing Voter]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Not really.  You cannot compare a gov. election early and mail turnout with Presidential election early and mail turnout (during the height of a pandemic).  It's obviously apples to oranges.

Early voting is still pitiful. I wouldn't be too surprised if Youngkin wins at this point.

🙄

[Devils30]

People said early CA numbers were horrendous, then polls started to catch up a bit as pollsters realized it wasnt going to be the ultra low 2010 turnout they predicted. VA has no pre-2020 mail or early vote history, we need to wait and see. Not everyone is eager to vote 5 weeks before the election this year like 2020. There's a reason pre-2020 late ballots in CA AZ tended to be more Dem.

[It’s so Joever]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

This is easily the most useless chart on this page.

[It’s so Joever]

Traveling to a rich white part of Henrico this weekend to see some family members. I will update on anecdotal evidence (yard signs, what I hear people say) even though anecdotal evidence is usually useless.

[wbrocks67]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Early voting turnout (which benefits Democrats) is horrendous, including in most blue regions. I don’t see how T-Mac wins by single high digits like certain users on here claim- this isn’t the turnout required for an 8 point win in the state so far.

Funny, because despite only 200-300k early ballots being cast in 2017, Northam still won by 9!

It's very possible that many people are just going to vote in person this time around in VA because that's what they've usually done in the past. Comparing 2020 is just not prudent at this point in any circumstance.

[Non Swing Voter]

People said early CA numbers were horrendous, then polls started to catch up a bit as pollsters realized it wasnt going to be the ultra low 2010 turnout they predicted. VA has no pre-2020 mail or early vote history, we need to wait and see. Not everyone is eager to vote 5 weeks before the election this year like 2020. There's a reason pre-2020 late ballots in CA AZ tended to be more Dem.

And oddly enough it's mostly the same posters who got the CA recall so wrong who are now spamming this incorrect info on early voting in every VA thread...

[Devils30]

People said early CA numbers were horrendous, then polls started to catch up a bit as pollsters realized it wasnt going to be the ultra low 2010 turnout they predicted. VA has no pre-2020 mail or early vote history, we need to wait and see. Not everyone is eager to vote 5 weeks before the election this year like 2020. There's a reason pre-2020 late ballots in CA AZ tended to be more Dem.

And oddly enough it's mostly the same posters who got the CA recall so wrong who are now spamming this incorrect info on early voting in every VA thread...

You also have white voter numbers in the polls that indicate very little chance for GOP.

[Progressive Pessimist]

While I am still confident in a McAuliffe victory, I have no idea what the s*** is going on with this race in every other respect. Like many things these days, it seems like a political Rorschach test. I just want it to be over already, and ideally I want McAuliffe to just be able to win by at least Clinton's 2016 margin at this point.

[LtNOWIS]

Here's an anecdote for you all. I don't have cable, but I watch a lot of YouTube, with ads. I've gotten a few Glenn Youngkin ads, talking about how McAuliffe is generically bad, or talking about the school choice issue. One where they talk about raunchy books in the Fairfax County library system, which really hits close to home to me as a childless bachelor in Alexandria City.

By contrast, the Dem ads are almost invisible. They're just directing me to vote early, and go to iwillvote.com to do that. That's a DNC-run website to help you find an early voting location or method or whatever. I've seen Mark Warner, and Stacey Abrams in these ads, telling me that early voting is important, but never anything about how Youngkin is a bad candidate or how McAuliffe is a good candidate.

So I'm not sure what's going on here. Perhaps the Democrats have me dialed in as a reliable Dem voter, since I did vote in the Democratic presidential primary in 2020 and the state primary in 2021. Or they figure across the board that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia, and if they get anything remotely like 2018 or 2020 turnout, they're gonna win.

[Non Swing Voter]

Here's an anecdote for you all. I don't have cable, but I watch a lot of YouTube, with ads. I've gotten a few Glenn Youngkin ads, talking about how McAuliffe is generically bad, or talking about the school choice issue. One where they talk about raunchy books in the Fairfax County library system, which really hits close to home to me as a childless bachelor in Alexandria City.

By contrast, the Dem ads are almost invisible. They're just directing me to vote early, and go to iwillvote.com to do that. That's a DNC-run website to help you find an early voting location or method or whatever. I've seen Mark Warner, and Stacey Abrams in these ads, telling me that early voting is important, but never anything about how Youngkin is a bad candidate or how McAuliffe is a good candidate.

So I'm not sure what's going on here. Perhaps the Democrats have me dialed in as a reliable Dem voter, since I did vote in the Democratic presidential primary in 2020 and the state primary in 2021. Or they figure across the board that there are more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia, and if they get anything remotely like 2018 or 2020 turnout, they're gonna win.

Youngkin is just spending a f***** fortune on this race.  On TV it's a little more balanced with Dem ads.