Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Skill and Chance]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Yikes. Bull Run anchoring that district is really not a great place for a candidate associated with a total abortion ban. Competent Dems should be able to sink his campaign as long as nothing bad happens nationally to steal the spotlight.

[Oryxslayer]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

Nah the real nationalization is Youngkin proposing a supposed 'compromise' on Abortion when the electorate doesn't really see it as a compromise.

[Person Man]

I’m already seeing abortion ads on YT.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

Nah the real nationalization is Youngkin proposing a supposed 'compromise' on Abortion when the electorate doesn't really see it as a compromise.

Where does this poll show majority opposition to a 15 week abortion ban? I only see a question about legality in all, some, or no cases.

[Skill and Chance]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

Nah the real nationalization is Youngkin proposing a supposed 'compromise' on Abortion when the electorate doesn't really see it as a compromise.

Where does this poll show majority opposition to a 15 week abortion ban? I only see a question about legality in all, some, or no cases.

We've never had a referendum where the choice was between a 15 week limit with the standard self-defense exemptions for life endangerment and rape vs. the standard Dem ballot initiative position legal to viability with life/health exemption to term, including mental health, so we don't really know.  We will probably get to see this play out in AZ next year.

Right now, too many people think any new restrictions at all are just step 1 to a total ban, and this guy got recorded having that view in private.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

Nah the real nationalization is Youngkin proposing a supposed 'compromise' on Abortion when the electorate doesn't really see it as a compromise.

Where does this poll show majority opposition to a 15 week abortion ban? I only see a question about legality in all, some, or no cases.

We've never had a referendum where the choice was between a 15 week limit with the standard self-defense exemptions for life endangerment and rape vs. the standard Dem ballot initiative position legal to viability with life/health exemption to term, including mental health, so we don't really know.  We will probably get to see this play out in AZ next year.

Right now, too many people think any new restrictions at all are just step 1 to a total ban, and this guy got recorded having that view in private.

I agree on both counts: we don't know what level of support a referendum would find for 15 weeks, and this candidate's comments provide support for a slippery slope argument. But that's not the same thing as polling showing voters actually opposing a 15 week ban, which the poll didn't show.

[Skill and Chance]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

[Mr.Phips]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

That Richmond Republican only beat a weak Dem opponent by two points in 2019 in a district that was about seven points more Republican.  This time she faces a much better Dem opponent.

I also think Monty Mason has a much better chance than many think to hold on in the Tidewater.  Biden still won his new district by 9 and Dems won it in the 2022 House elections.

[Person Man]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

That Richmond Republican only beat a weak Dem opponent by two points in 2019 in a district that was about seven points more Republican.  This time she faces a much better Dem opponent.

I also think Monty Mason has a much better chance than many think to hold on in the Tidewater.  Biden still won his new district by 9 and Dems won it in the 2022 House elections.

If 2023 is a rehash of 2022, Democrats win.

[Skill and Chance]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

That Richmond Republican only beat a weak Dem opponent by two points in 2019 in a district that was about seven points more Republican.  This time she faces a much better Dem opponent.

I also think Monty Mason has a much better chance than many think to hold on in the Tidewater.  Biden still won his new district by 9 and Dems won it in the 2022 House elections.

If 2023 is a rehash of 2022, Democrats win.

It's VA 1st year stuff that historically correlates with the midterm.  VA 3rd year stuff doesn't correlate with much of anything.

[Mr.Phips]

Bump.

Earlier this month, the Republican nominee for 1 of the 2 median districts in the HoD was recorded privately endorsing a total abortion ban.  IMO, this will probably nationalize things enough for Dems to flip the chamber.

https://www.wric.com/news/politics/capitol-connection/political-analyst-says-candidate-caught-on-tape-advocating-for-total-ban-on-abortion-is-a-disaster-for-republicans/

What do you think about the Senate?

I think Dems are taking the outer Loudoun and outer Richmond seats (the latter is quite Dem on paper but has Virginia's version of Susan Collins holding it) for granted so a 20/20 tie with R control through the LG is still a real possibility.  Range is probably pretty narrow now- 20 to 23 Dems.  Most likely is probably still 21.

That Richmond Republican only beat a weak Dem opponent by two points in 2019 in a district that was about seven points more Republican.  This time she faces a much better Dem opponent.

I also think Monty Mason has a much better chance than many think to hold on in the Tidewater.  Biden still won his new district by 9 and Dems won it in the 2022 House elections.

If 2023 is a rehash of 2022, Democrats win.

It's VA 1st year stuff that historically correlates with the midterm.  VA 3rd year stuff doesn't correlate with much of anything.

The third year often does.  The only time it really didn’t was 2011, when Dems did pretty badly even though 2012 was a decent year for them.  1995, 2003, and 2015 were all years where there was pretty much no change.  1999 had a small change, but it was enough to shift the assembly to Rs.  2007 was a good Dem year that foreshadowed 2008.  2019 was a good Dem year, but Dems underperformed expectations a bit (failed to pick up a few HOD seats many thought they’d win and didn’t pick up the VA Beach and Henrico/Hanover seats that Clinton won in the Senate).

[Agafin]

Why is this thread so much longer than other state threads here? Is Virginia that important of a state, lol.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Why is this thread so much longer than other state threads here? Is Virginia that important of a state, lol.

I think a lot of it is down to a fairly conservative Republican winning the governor election one year after Biden carried the state by double digits. Put paid to all that talk of Virginia being a safe D state now, raises a lot of questions over its political future = lots of scope for discussion.

Plus, the fact the thread has been going on for almost 3 years now. Most fizzle out within 3 weeks if not days.

[LabourJersey]

Why is this thread so much longer than other state threads here? Is Virginia that important of a state, lol.

Virginia is a politically interesting state that's undergoing a lot of trends that are representative of where the parties are headed. It was until recently an important swing state, and even though it's definitely in the Democratic column its state-level races are still engaging and can teach both parties a lot.

[Lief 🗽]

Thank you Mr. President!
https://twitter.com/ammarmufasa/status/1697954761155424524?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yY...

[Skill and Chance]

Why is this thread so much longer than other state threads here? Is Virginia that important of a state, lol.

Virginia is a politically interesting state that's undergoing a lot of trends that are representative of where the parties are headed. It was until recently an important swing state, and even though it's definitely in the Democratic column its state-level races are still engaging and can teach both parties a lot.

It also has elections throughout the state in both odd years and they have been highly competitive in recent times, which is unique.  The NJ legislature has been Dem for 20 years now and never came close to flipping back.

[jamestroll]

Why is this thread so much longer than other state threads here? Is Virginia that important of a state, lol.

I think a lot of it is down to a fairly conservative Republican winning the governor election one year after Biden carried the state by double digits. Put paid to all that talk of Virginia being a safe D state now, raises a lot of questions over its political future = lots of scope for discussion.

Plus, the fact the thread has been going on for almost 3 years now. Most fizzle out within 3 weeks if not days.

I never thought my own creation would go out of control.. largely for reasons outside of my control.

[MT Treasurer]

The 2021 elections completely led people (including me) on the wrong track for their 2022 predictions — so many interpreted them as a sign of a red wave environment when, in reality, they were not the harbinger but the one outlier among the post-2020 elections.

e: And before anyone entertains the "we were headed for a red wave before Dobbs" narrative, there is absolutely no evidence for that. Dobbs allowed Democrats to overperform even more, but it was not the difference between a red wave and a blue ripple.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The 2021 elections completely led people (including me) on the wrong track for their 2022 predictions — so many interpreted them as a sign of a red wave environment when, in reality, they were not the harbinger but the one outlier among the post-2020 elections.

Dobbs changed a lot between 2021 and 2022. Special elections showed a clear shift around that time, as well as polling. We were headed for a red wave before Dobbs.

[jamestroll]

The 2021 elections completely led people (including me) on the wrong track for their 2022 predictions — so many interpreted them as a sign of a red wave environment when, in reality, they were not the harbinger but the one outlier among the post-2020 elections.

e: And before anyone entertains the "we were headed for a red wave before Dobbs" narrative, there is absolutely no evidence for that. Dobbs allowed Democrats to overperform even more, but it was not the difference between a red wave and a blue ripple.

Democratic campaign Malpractice

[Pollster]

The Youngkin 15-week ban proposal is revealingly stupid (not necessarily about him, moreso about the party's approach to abortion in general) because it assumes that a majority of voters want a compromise on abortion to begin with.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

e: And before anyone entertains the "we were headed for a red wave before Dobbs" narrative, there is absolutely no evidence for that. Dobbs allowed Democrats to overperform even more, but it was not the difference between a red wave and a blue ripple.

I'm sure R +6-7 on the generic ballot like in 2010 is considered a red wave. Republican Senate candidates probably would've performed even more than 3-4 points better, probably finishing with 53 seats, because it seems like they were disproportionately punished (since the Senate confirms Supreme Court Justices)

I think you overexaggerate how bad 2022 was. It was a blue ripple in the Senate, but a red ripple in the House. This is consistent with the fact that we would've had a red wave without Dobbs, and Republican Senate candidates were punished more.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

e: And before anyone entertains the "we were headed for a red wave before Dobbs" narrative, there is absolutely no evidence for that. Dobbs allowed Democrats to overperform even more, but it was not the difference between a red wave and a blue ripple.

I'm sure R +6-7 on the generic ballot like in 2010 is considered a red wave. Republican Senate candidates probably would've performed even more than 3-4 points better, probably finishing with 53 seats, because it seems like they were disproportionately punished (since the Senate confirms Supreme Court Justices)

I think you overexaggerate how bad 2022 was. It was a blue ripple in the Senate, but a red ripple in the House. This is consistent with the fact that we would've had a red wave without Dobbs, and Republican Senate candidates were punished more.

You two lol. I’m about to grab some popcorn and watch this play out! /s