Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The Youngkin 15-week ban proposal is revealingly stupid (not necessarily about him, moreso about the party's approach to abortion in general) because it assumes that a majority of voters want a compromise on abortion to begin with.

Not even so much that but most people know republicans aren’t gonna stop with 15 weeks, 12 weeks, or even 6 weeks. Their goal is a complete national ban.

[The Mikado]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

[Tekken_Guy]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

What are the odds a government shutdown actually happens?

[Skill and Chance]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

Hmmm... the shutdown in 2013 likely explained the Dem wins in VA that year.  Only time the president's party has won the governorship since 1973, so it was pretty exceptional.

[LabourJersey]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

That's a good point, though I wonder that the vast majority of people who will (rightly) blame the GOP for a government shutdown would be voting for the Democrats anyway.

If the GOP gets a lot of bad press on this a la 2013 then this would certainly hurt the GOP's candidates in the three or four competitive NOVA seats.

[Skill and Chance]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

That's a good point, though I wonder that the vast majority of people who will (rightly) blame the GOP for a government shutdown would be voting for the Democrats anyway.

If the GOP gets a lot of bad press on this a la 2013 then this would certainly hurt the GOP's candidates in the three or four competitive NOVA seats.

Outer NOVA decides the State Senate.  HoD depends more on college kid turnout and black turnout of all ages downstate.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I'm not sure if this is accurate, but from watching the campaign so far my vibes tells me that Russet Perry isn't that strong of a candidate, and Segura probably has more of a chance than expected from the Biden +13 lean. I could be proven very wrong on election day though.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm not sure if this is accurate, but from watching the campaign so far my vibes tells me that Russet Perry isn't that strong of a candidate, and Segura probably has more of a chance than expected from the Biden +13 lean. I could be proven very wrong on election day though.

Why do you say that? 

In terms of state senate candidate quality, I wonder more about running an openly transgender former heavy metal band member running in the McAuliffe +4 western Prince William seat than running a career prosecutor specializing in sexual violence in the Youngkin +1 Loudoun seat.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not sure if this is accurate, but from watching the campaign so far my vibes tells me that Russet Perry isn't that strong of a candidate, and Segura probably has more of a chance than expected from the Biden +13 lean. I could be proven very wrong on election day though.

Why do you say that? 

In terms of state senate candidate quality, I wonder more about running an openly transgender former heavy metal band member running in the McAuliffe +4 western Prince William seat than running a career prosecutor specializing in sexual violence in the Youngkin +1 Loudoun seat.

They had a theoretically harder district to win at the time in 2017  and maybe 2021 within top ticket influences.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I'm not sure if this is accurate, but from watching the campaign so far my vibes tells me that Russet Perry isn't that strong of a candidate, and Segura probably has more of a chance than expected from the Biden +13 lean. I could be proven very wrong on election day though.

Why do you say that?  

In terms of state senate candidate quality, I wonder more about running an openly transgender former heavy metal band member running in the McAuliffe +4 western Prince William seat than running a career prosecutor specializing in sexual violence in the Youngkin +1 Loudoun seat.

Perry's background makes her look like a perfect fit for the district on paper. However, her actual campaign itself doesn't look good.

1.She seems to be nationalizing the race and hoping the partisanship bails her out. Her pinned campaign ad at one point started with "Republicans". However, it seems like she isn't doing so efficiently. She isn't trying to define her opponent or tie him to the national party, nor is she leaning much into her own background. Her argument basically boils down to "vote for me because I'm a Democrat", which is better than a scandal plagued person, but still not inspiring.

For example, she said something along the lines of  "If you sorted all the districts, ours is the 21th most Democratic one. This means that we are the tipping point". This seems like it would resonate well with Atlas nerds, but I don't think this plays as well with the median voter, and they haven't been given a real reason to vote for her. Better is to say "our seat is likely to determine control of the Senate".

2.She is doing very bad in fundraising. Sure, she's expected to be outraised given that Segura's dad is very rich, but even compared to her peers the numbers look troubling.


Now, compare that to Mucarsel-Powell's campaign, which seems much more efficiently run so far given my vibes, and makes me think that she has a much better chance of winning than expected from the state being Florida. Granted, they have different incentives given that one is incentivized to nationalize the race and another has to significantly outrun partisanship, but the difference is still instructive.

[wbrocks67]

co/efficient (R) has D+1

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1699087583613993354

[Skill and Chance]

co/efficient (R) has D+1

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1699087583613993354

Haven't heard of this outfit before.  Looking on their website, it appears that all of the board members have Republican ties. 

In the crosstabs, they have a dramatic Dem underperformance in NOVA (46D/44R for the "DC DMA"), while Dems are doing quite well in Richmond (45D/37R) and Norfolk (50D/41R).  R's are getting 15% of the black vote and 46%(!) of the neither white nor black minority vote, while only leading 48/42 with white voters.  If this actually happened, it would probably flip both chambers.  I assume the NOVA result would come from PWC being weirdly close?   

It really does seem like VA statewide is snapping back toward a pre-Trump 2010's environment.  Not to say Dems will lose, but I expect it to be close.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that co/efficient is Trumps pollster; and they had some wild results last year (like Oz getting 25% of the black vote), so I would take their results + crosstabs with a huge of grain of salt. With that said, the fact that they are still showing a D+1 edge bodes well for Ds IMO, given their house bias.

[Skill and Chance]

Should be noted that co/efficient is Trumps pollster; and they had some wild results last year (like Oz getting 25% of the black vote), so I would take their results + crosstabs with a huge of grain of salt. With that said, the fact that they are still showing a D+1 edge bodes well for Ds IMO, given their house bias.

I agree this poll suggests Dems will continue to share power, especially after considering the pollster's past results.  Still, the relative swings could be really important to determine whether R's really are having a massive improvement with people who are neither white nor black (and it's the only 2023 state with several districts dominated by those groups).  For example, if D's win both chambers narrowly, but they won VA Beach and PWC by roughly the same single digit margin, I would start taking the NY Biden +12/PA Biden +2 idea very seriously.

[jamestroll]

All republicans online want nova to be a gop stronghold. Don't Believe those internals. It's HYPE.

[Duke of York]

Should be noted that co/efficient is Trumps pollster; and they had some wild results last year (like Oz getting 25% of the black vote), so I would take their results + crosstabs with a huge of grain of salt. With that said, the fact that they are still showing a D+1 edge bodes well for Ds IMO, given their house bias.

I think this is one of those pollsters that like Trafalgar adds points to Republicans to account for so called bias. I'll take it with a big grain of salt.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

co/efficient (R) has D+1

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1699087583613993354

Junk poll

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

Hmmm... the shutdown in 2013 likely explained the Dem wins in VA that year.  Only time the president's party has won the governorship since 1973, so it was pretty exceptional.

The Dem won because the Libertarian took nearly 7% of the vote.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

Hmmm... the shutdown in 2013 likely explained the Dem wins in VA that year.  Only time the president's party has won the governorship since 1973, so it was pretty exceptional.

The Dem won because the Libertarian took nearly 7% of the vote.

There were a number of factors at play that year.  Republicans also ran a pretty weak candidate.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

Hmmm... the shutdown in 2013 likely explained the Dem wins in VA that year.  Only time the president's party has won the governorship since 1973, so it was pretty exceptional.

The Dem won because the Libertarian took nearly 7% of the vote.

There were a number of factors at play that year.  Republicans also ran a pretty weak candidate.

Cuccinelli seems eerily similar to Gallego right now; both weak, extreme candidates who kicked out a more moderate, electable candidate from their party.

[wbrocks67]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

Hmmm... the shutdown in 2013 likely explained the Dem wins in VA that year.  Only time the president's party has won the governorship since 1973, so it was pretty exceptional.

The Dem won because the Libertarian took nearly 7% of the vote.

There were a number of factors at play that year.  Republicans also ran a pretty weak candidate.

Cuccinelli seems eerily similar to Gallego right now; both weak, extreme candidates who kicked out a more moderate, electable candidate from their party.

This is really delusional about Gallego.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallego is a strong Marine Vet that has the support of Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown that's why is running he is gonna win Maricopa county is D not R anymore

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It's possible that SD-31 (Segura vs Perry) might actually finish strictly to the right of the tipping point seat.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Dems need to get their sh*t together with VA spending. Though I assume that doesn't include the $1.2-1.5M Biden had DNC send to VA.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, Dems need to get their sh*t together with VA spending. Though I assume that doesn't include the $1.2-1.5M Biden had DNC send to VA.

The DNC basically needs to give more like $10M to Virginia.