Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Nyvin]

Joe Morrissey, John Edwards, and Chap Petersen all being gone next year will definitely move the chamber to the left if Dems win a majority in November.

They were probably the three most moderate/right wing senators in the D caucus.

[Aurelius2]

Looking at the map, I don't think Petersen is 100% done. I think it'll come down to Falls Church. If he wins, it will be close though. I estimate Salim has a 2/3 chance.

[jamestroll]

Joe Morrissey, John Edwards, and Chap Petersen all being gone next year will definitely move the chamber to the left if Dems win a majority in November.

They were probably the three most moderate/right wing senators in the D caucus.

Petersen voted with democrats more reliably than many republicans voted with their party.

He was outstanding.

My former dem neighbors have lost their MINDS

[Aurelius2]

The latest update is not good for Chap. Not ruling him out, but it'll be a steep uphill climb. Sad to see a legend go out like this.

[heatcharger]

Looking at the map, I don't think Petersen is 100% done. I think it'll come down to Falls Church. If he wins, it will be close though. I estimate Salim has a 2/3 chance.

Falls Church definitely won’t save him. He’s done.

[Nyvin]

Looking at the map, I don't think Petersen is 100% done. I think it'll come down to Falls Church. If he wins, it will be close though. I estimate Salim has a 2/3 chance.

If it's down to Falls Church, he's probably done for.

[Aurelius2]

Looking at the map, I don't think Petersen is 100% done. I think it'll come down to Falls Church. If he wins, it will be close though. I estimate Salim has a 2/3 chance.

Falls Church definitely won’t save him. He’s done.

Yeah, the margins that just came in are brutal. RIP king.

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like something of a liberal revolt in inner NOVA.  Longtime incumbents Petersen and Barker with something of a reputation for deal-making are both down to more progressive primary challengers.  Also, as noted above, Petersen was by far the most libertarian Dem on COVID rules.  The incumbent progressive prosecutors in Arlington and Loudoun have won are against primary challengers who positioned themselves as tough on crime and the progressive incumbent in Fairfax is leading pretty significantly. 

Its making me very worried about the general electiom results.

I just added some info.  I think these results call into question whether the State Senate will actually be easier for Dems than the HoD.  Not so much because of the Petersen and Barker seats.  Those are >60% McAuliffe and would probably auto-elect any Dem not named Joe Morrisey in the general.  It's not like they nominated a lifelong professional activist in SD-31 (the most likely decisive seat in western Loudoun).  However, if Guzman actually wins SD-29 over incumbent McPike (there is a lot of vote left to count), that would be more concerning.  Guzman introduced a bill last year to revoke parental rights for parents who refuse to affirm their child's gender identity.  That's not a 100% safe seat and it's also the kind of place that is likely way more Dem than socially liberal.  

All of the Tilt R narrow Biden->Youngkin districts got the strongest Republican nominee tonight, so I don't see any freebies on the map for Dems elsewhere.    

[Aurelius2]

Looking at the map, I don't think Petersen is 100% done. I think it'll come down to Falls Church. If he wins, it will be close though. I estimate Salim has a 2/3 chance.

If it's down to Falls Church, he's probably done for.

Shows what I know about an area I moved to 6 months ago, lmao.

[Oryxslayer]

What shouldn't be a hot take but probably is: If Petersen ends up losing, its not going to be because of all the stuff mentioned in the posts above me. That stuff is relevant, but it only made him vulnerable, same as and Amanda Chase and her issues.

No, what (might) doom them both is simple redistricting.

- Chase's previous district included Amelita County and a solid chunk of southeastern and Richmond-facing Chesterfield county around Chester. The district dropped this considerable amount of voters and gained Midlothian and other suburbs across from Tuckahoe. She got over 50% in her former district, but lost almost all the new precincts.

 - It looks to be the same story with Petersen. His former district was a blob of suburbs centered on Fairfax City, with an arm reaching out to Centerville. It's alignment faced 'outwards' from DC and Arlington. The new district faces 'inwards.' It drops over half the former Fairfax blob and Centerville and gains a lot of suburbs next to Arlington, including Falls Church. Those are the areas he is losing, in some cases, badly.

[jamestroll]

How are the pwc results? Any bastion of sanity left in nova?

I still am neutral/postive on trumpkin. He isnt a nimby

[Nyvin]

I just added some info.  I think these results call into question whether the State Senate will actually be easier for Dems than the HoD.  Not so much because of the Petersen and Barker seats.  Those are >60% McAuliffe and would probably auto-elect any Dem not named Joe Morrisey in the general.  It's not like they nominated a lifelong professional activist in SD-31 (the most likely decisive seat in western Loudoun).  However, if Guzman actually wins SD-29 over incumbent McPike (there is a lot of vote left to count), that would be more concerning.  Guzman introduced a bill last year to revoke parental rights for parents who refuse to affirm their child's gender identity.  That's not a 100% safe seat and it's also the kind of place that is likely way more Dem than socially liberal.  

All of the Tilt R narrow Biden->Youngkin districts got the strongest Republican nominee tonight, so I don't see any freebies on the map for Dems elsewhere.    

What about Joel Griffin vs Tara Durant in SD-27?

[Skill and Chance]

Barker has a better chance of coming back than Petersen.

Also, wow Deeds vs. Hudson just got really close.  Was that the Charlottesville and Albemarle absentees?  If either of those are still out, it could plausibly flip.

[Skill and Chance]

What about Joel Griffin vs Tara Durant in SD-27?

Well, both parties just got their strongest candidate in that seat, but it votes significantly to the right of the state, especially in off years (~54% Youngkin in 2021).  I think that one was only going to be top tier competitive if it was the crazy R vs. the stronger D.

[Sestak]

Looks like Deeds holds on?

[Oryxslayer]

The Dominion-backed candidates aren't doing well.   They lost SD-13, most likely lost SD-33, and could lose SD-11.

Edit - Nvm, looks like Deeds won SD-11.

Looks like Deeds holds on?

Barker has a better chance of coming back than Petersen.

Also, wow Deeds vs. Hudson just got really close.  Was that the Charlottesville and Albemarle absentees?  If either of those are still out, it could plausibly flip.

There was a data entry error in Deeds' favor that made the race look locked, but now corrected it remains close. However, Deeds should still hold on given he leads by 600 votes and barely anything is left.

[Devils30]

Looks like something of a liberal revolt in inner NOVA.  Longtime incumbents Petersen and Barker with something of a reputation for deal-making are both down to more progressive primary challengers.  Also, as noted above, Petersen was by far the most libertarian Dem on COVID rules.  The incumbent progressive prosecutors in Arlington and Loudoun have won are against primary challengers who positioned themselves as tough on crime and the progressive incumbent in Fairfax is leading pretty significantly. 

Its making me very worried about the general electiom results.

I just added some info.  I think these results call into question whether the State Senate will actually be easier for Dems than the HoD.  Not so much because of the Petersen and Barker seats.  Those are >60% McAuliffe and would probably auto-elect any Dem not named Joe Morrisey in the general.  It's not like they nominated a lifelong professional activist in SD-31 (the most likely decisive seat in western Loudoun).  However, if Guzman actually wins SD-29 over incumbent McPike (there is a lot of vote left to count), that would be more concerning.  Guzman introduced a bill last year to revoke parental rights for parents who refuse to affirm their child's gender identity.  That's not a 100% safe seat and it's also the kind of place that is likely way more Dem than socially liberal.  

All of the Tilt R narrow Biden->Youngkin districts got the strongest Republican nominee tonight, so I don't see any freebies on the map for Dems elsewhere.    

SD-29 was Biden +21, once upon a time it was in play but not in 2023.

[Skill and Chance]

The Dominion-backed candidates aren't doing well.   They lost SD-13, most likely lost SD-33, and could lose SD-11.

Edit - Nvm, looks like Deeds won SD-11.

Looks like Deeds holds on?

Barker has a better chance of coming back than Petersen.

Also, wow Deeds vs. Hudson just got really close.  Was that the Charlottesville and Albemarle absentees?  If either of those are still out, it could plausibly flip.

There was a data entry error in Deeds' favor that made the race look locked, but now corrected it remains close. However, Deeds should still hold on given he leads by 600 votes and barely anything is left.

FWIW that district/area is known for that.  An error there flipped control of the state senate once corrected in 2011.

[Skill and Chance]

Barker might plausibly come back.  Trouble is, his stronghold (the east) is disproportionately in. 

[Skill and Chance]

McPike narrowly in the lead in SD-29 after a massive PWC election day vote dump.  PWC early votes should decide the outcome.

[Oryxslayer]

Barker might plausibly come back.  Trouble is, his stronghold (the east) is disproportionately in. 

Another potential casualty of redistricting, in this case the majority of voters are new to him.

[Skill and Chance]

Odd year primaries clearly make it easier for R's to keep the nomination from crazier populist candidates in the Trump era.  However, they seem to make it easier for far left D's to get through.

[henster]

https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?191+sum+SJ306

Barker WROTE the sham redistricting amendment, McPike and Petersen were more than happy to vote for it. Not sad to see any of them go.

[GALeftist]

Nice! Glad to see the DINOs getting culled. Go run in swing districts, if you must be in politics; quit camping out in Safe D seats.

[henster]

We have a legit DINO in Fairfax County, Petersen going down is a bigger deal than Morrissey.

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1271174930642722817?lang=en