Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Oryxslayer]

Petersen and Barker are officially projected to have lost to Saddam Azlan Salim and Stella Pekarsky respectively. Both are casualties of redistricting, they got very redrawn districts and failed to attract the new voters. Petersen is down by 1.3K votes with only 7 precincts remaining and mostly in the new turf, Pekarsky is up by 500 and 2/3 precincts which remain are in the new turf.

McPike currently leads by 74 votes with 8 precincts remaining in SD29. No clear geographic patterns.

[Continential]

Chap Petersen:

Joined Republicans to cast the deciding vote to kill mask mandates in schools
Founded the Redskins Pride Caucus to defend the Washington Football Team’s former name

He is my hero. Shame he lost.

[Nyvin]

Chap Petersen probably was just too moderate for a district like SD-37 and was coasting on hometown appeal.   Redistricting was probably going to screw him over no matter what.

[Skill and Chance]

Chap Petersen:

Joined Republicans to cast the deciding vote to kill mask mandates in schools
Founded the Redskins Pride Caucus to defend the Washington Football Team’s former name

He is my hero. Shame he lost.

He was running like he was in a Biden +7/Youngkin+5 district.

[Oryxslayer]

Chap Petersen probably was just too moderate for a district like SD-37 and was coasting on hometown appeal.   Redistricting was probably going to screw him over no matter what.

All incumbents of both parties who lost today would probably not have lost - or at least made it much closer - if they were in their old districts. Joe Morrissey, for example, is quite literally the example of a legislator who knew how to serve his specific constituents and gave the finger to public opinion in the rest of the state. But redistricting changed the districts and shuffled voters, removing old constituents and adding voters who have never been given a reason to like said incumbent. And so the incumbent must actually win the trust of those new voters, or risk them selecting one of their own and outvoting the carryover constituents.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm happy to see Amanda Chase lost renomination tonight to Glen Sturtevant, so the Republican Caucus in the Virginia State Senate should be getting a little more sane.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

We have a legit DINO in Fairfax County, Petersen going down is a bigger deal than Morrissey.

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1271174930642722817?lang=en

Morrissey is a child molester, so no it’s not a bigger deal Petersen’s gone.

[jamestroll]

Chap Petersen probably was just too moderate for a district like SD-37 and was coasting on hometown appeal.   Redistricting was probably going to screw him over no matter what.

All incumbents of both parties who lost today would probably not have lost - or at least made it much closer - if they were in their old districts. Joe Morrissey, for example, is quite literally the example of a legislator who knew how to serve his specific constituents and gave the finger to public opinion in the rest of the state. But redistricting changed the districts and shuffled voters, removing old constituents and adding voters who have never been given a reason to like said incumbent. And so the incumbent must actually win the trust of those new voters, or risk them selecting one of their own and outvoting the carryover constituents.

Yeah, it looks like Petersen did well in much of his old turf.

Funny enough, he did very well in Oakton, but lost the precinct I used to live in.

[Oryxslayer]

With apparently all votes in McPike is the apparent winner and leads Guzman by 46 votes in SD29, though a recount is possible here.

[Skill and Chance]

With apparently all votes in McPike is the apparent winner and leads Guzman by 46 votes in SD29, though a recount is possible here.

Interesting.  I’m not exaggerating when I say that whether or not Guzman is on the GE ballot could be outcome determinative for the chamber.  Even if that district doesn’t flip, that bill she sponsored reads like an existential threat to Christian parents (even many who softly support SSM) and Virginia is more religious than the nationwide average.  Ads with CPS agents taking your kids away after you tell them that men can’t get pregnant or teach them that “everyone has a mommy and a daddy” would blanket the airwaves for 2 months straight

[Aurelius2]

With apparently all votes in McPike is the apparent winner and leads Guzman by 46 votes in SD29, though a recount is possible here.

Interesting.  I’m not exaggerating when I say that whether or not Guzman is on the GE ballot could be outcome determinative for the chamber.  Even if that district doesn’t flip, that bill she sponsored reads like an existential threat to Christian parents (even many who softly support SSM) and Virginia is more religious than the nationwide average.  Ads with CPS agents taking your kids away after you tell them that men can’t get pregnant or teach them that “everyone has a mommy and a daddy” would blanket the airwaves for 2 months straight

Even in NoVA I was surprised by the level of religiosity. Much more than comparable metros I've lived in in other parts of the country.

[Skill and Chance]

With apparently all votes in McPike is the apparent winner and leads Guzman by 46 votes in SD29, though a recount is possible here.

Interesting.  I’m not exaggerating when I say that whether or not Guzman is on the GE ballot could be outcome determinative for the chamber.  Even if that district doesn’t flip, that bill she sponsored reads like an existential threat to Christian parents (even many who softly support SSM) and Virginia is more religious than the nationwide average.  Ads with CPS agents taking your kids away after you tell them that men can’t get pregnant or teach them that “everyone has a mommy and a daddy” would blanket the airwaves for 2 months straight

Even in NoVA I was surprised by the level of religiosity. Much more than comparable metros I've lived in in other parts of the country.

I saw a county map of % church attendance not long ago and VA doesn’t deviate from the generic Upper South trend until you are practically in Arlington.

[Atlas Force]

Chap Petersen probably was just too moderate for a district like SD-37 and was coasting on hometown appeal.   Redistricting was probably going to screw him over no matter what.

All incumbents of both parties who lost today would probably not have lost - or at least made it much closer - if they were in their old districts. Joe Morrissey, for example, is quite literally the example of a legislator who knew how to serve his specific constituents and gave the finger to public opinion in the rest of the state. But redistricting changed the districts and shuffled voters, removing old constituents and adding voters who have never been given a reason to like said incumbent. And so the incumbent must actually win the trust of those new voters, or risk them selecting one of their own and outvoting the carryover constituents.

https://twitter.com/Yukongold1898/status/1671353432936947712?cxt=HHwWgICxhfLF67E...

[henster]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

[Skill and Chance]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

By contrast, the HoD situation actually looks somewhat better when running to the left, because the seats are small enough that the college vote can control several of them downstate if turnout is high enough.  A big part of the 2010's gerrymander was drowning out college towns with 75% R rural areas, and that has been unwound on the new map.  In some cases, the same also applies with majority-black small cities. 

The left wing nomination fest last night could have really shaken things up.  I wouldn't be shocked if both chambers flipped on a competitive night.  Could be easier to drive up turnout and flip narrow Youngkin college town districts than narrow Youngkin wealthy outer suburbs districts, especially with an R campaign aimed at parents of young children.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1671524636805283843?cxt=HHwWhoC-oaKzubIuAAAA

Petersen losing was very disappointing, but the GOP primary results were excellent. I swear some kind of switch flipped as soon as Trump left the White House.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1671524636805283843?cxt=HHwWhoC-oaKzubIuAAAA

I would be careful about extrapolating this beyond odd year elections.

1. Extremely low turnout compared to a presidential primary

2. Lots of districts where practically everyone went to college

[Skill and Chance]

McPike's lead in SD-29 is now down to 26 votes and Guzman overperformed with mail-in votes in both counties in the district.  This one is probably going to flip with the late mail-ins that arrive by Friday.

[Vosem]

I would be careful about extrapolating this beyond odd year elections.

1. Extremely low turnout compared to a presidential primary

2. Lots of districts where practically everyone went to college

Also lots where they didn't (consider the Marsh/Williams primary way out in the boonies). That said, VA seems to have an unusually good dynamic going where Youngkin is a competent leader who's universally respected and is able to promote the candidates he likes much more successfully than most others, to the point that even in primaries where there isn't an endorsement, like Chase/Sturtevant, voters can intuit which candidate is more Youngkin-friendly. (At the national level, consider voters intuiting in the Bolduc/Morse primary that Bolduc was more Trump-friendly, even though there was no endorsement.)

Also, Chase made the mistake of briefly leaving the GOP and then trying to come back, and that's something that tends to get punished much more than people realize, even in very fringey areas; consider Bob Smith in NH-Sen 2002. Or Bob Barr getting crushed in his 2014 comeback bid in rural GA. (Ron Paul exists as a counter-example, kind of, but then in his 1996 comeback bid he was also facing a recent party-switcher! Also he seems to have just been a really good candidate for his area given how strong he was in spite of how unusual his views were.)

[Epaminondas]

Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, [Democrats] fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.

But Youngkin won't be on the ballot.
Meanwhile, Biden has won

• 24 of 40 Senate seats by >5 points
• 55 of 100 House seats by >5 points, and another 4 by <5

Quite a contrast. Is there a repository for the 2022 congressional results by legislative district?

[Spectator]

Chap Petersen probably was just too moderate for a district like SD-37 and was coasting on hometown appeal.   Redistricting was probably going to screw him over no matter what.

All incumbents of both parties who lost today would probably not have lost - or at least made it much closer - if they were in their old districts. Joe Morrissey, for example, is quite literally the example of a legislator who knew how to serve his specific constituents and gave the finger to public opinion in the rest of the state. But redistricting changed the districts and shuffled voters, removing old constituents and adding voters who have never been given a reason to like said incumbent. And so the incumbent must actually win the trust of those new voters, or risk them selecting one of their own and outvoting the carryover constituents.

Morrisey got destroyed everywhere. Even in his old district he was still losing by more than 20 points.

[slothdem]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

[Spectator]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

I agree, it’s kind of hard to say a Youngkin +1 seat is even really a tossup. 2021 is the high mark of Virginia Republicans post-2010, and acting like Youngkin +1 is the starting baseline is very misleading. Something like 2022 would be more realistic.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I didn't really pay much attention to these races other than the one in mine district (race baiter Louise Lucas defeated Senator Spruill whom I voted for, but I kinda expected that) and I'm disappointed at Petersen's loss but he's definitely the kind of Democrat who would/should fare well in a Trump district and I will miss his presence as an independent moderating voice in the caucus.

[Skill and Chance]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

I agree, it’s kind of hard to say a Youngkin +1 seat is even really a tossup. 2021 is the high mark of Virginia Republicans post-2010, and acting like Youngkin +1 is the starting baseline is very misleading. Something like 2022 would be more realistic.

Democrats currently have 19 totally safe seats in the state senate.  Because a 20/20 tie currently goes to Republicans through the LG, Democrats will have to win 2 out of these

1. A Biden +9/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 Hampton Roads seat
2. A Biden +7/Youngkin +5/2022 Dem +0.4 Southside seat
3. A Biden +13/Youngkin +1/2022 Dem +5 outer Loudoun seat.
4. A  Biden +27/McAuliffe +4/2022 Dem +6 outer Prince William seat

The exposure here to areas that look strong Dem on paper but snapped back after Biden is significant.

By contrast, a tie in the HoD cannot be broken and would deny R's a trifecta.  Dems are currently at 48 seats, but the old map was more Republican leaning than the new map will be.  Essentially, there are already 48 totally safe Dem seats  on the new map.  The next 4 most likely Dem seats are:

1. A Biden +27/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +2 seat in western Prince William (yes, seriously)
2. A Biden +12/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +9 college town seat
3. A Biden +12/Youngkin +2/2022 Dem +5 seat in Virginia Beach
4. A Biden +5/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 seat in Western Henrico (yes, seriously)

Note that #1 here is unsurprisingly within the legendary Biden +27/McAuliffe +4 state senate district.  #4 here doesn't look quite as impressive, but it's probably the fastest Dem-trending area of the state.  The takeaway here is that HoD Dems can still overcome another outer NOVA revolt through seats 2-4, while state senate Dems are entirely dependent on those 2 seats.