Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

Reminder the Pres numbers in VA have asterisks attached, most often cited in regards to Prince William  given the gap in Dem affinity between the counties east and west.

[LtNOWIS]

Nice! Glad to see the DINOs getting culled. Go run in swing districts, if you must be in politics; quit camping out in Safe D seats.

People have to run in the districts they live in. That's in the state constitution. And few people would move from the middle suburbs to the outer suburbs for a part time job.

[Horus]

I was with Petersen on masks and in person schooling but that Jim Crow remark is just beyond disgusting. Glad he lost.

[Mr.Phips]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

I agree, it’s kind of hard to say a Youngkin +1 seat is even really a tossup. 2021 is the high mark of Virginia Republicans post-2010, and acting like Youngkin +1 is the starting baseline is very misleading. Something like 2022 would be more realistic.

Democrats currently have 19 totally safe seats in the state senate.  Because a 20/20 tie currently goes to Republicans through the LG, Democrats will have to win 2 out of these

1. A Biden +9/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 Hampton Roads seat
2. A Biden +7/Youngkin +5/2022 Dem +0.4 Southside seat
3. A Biden +13/Youngkin +1/2022 Dem +5 outer Loudoun seat.
4. A  Biden +27/McAuliffe +4/2022 Dem +6 outer Prince William seat

The exposure here to areas that look strong Dem on paper but snapped back after Biden is significant.

By contrast, a tie in the HoD cannot be broken and would deny R's a trifecta.  Dems are currently at 48 seats, but the old map was more Republican leaning than the new map will be.  Essentially, there are already 48 totally safe Dem seats  on the new map.  The next 4 most likely Dem seats are:

1. A Biden +27/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +2 seat in western Prince William (yes, seriously)
2. A Biden +12/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +9 college town seat
3. A Biden +12/Youngkin +2/2022 Dem +5 seat in Virginia Beach
4. A Biden +5/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 seat in Western Henrico (yes, seriously)

Note that #1 here is unsurprisingly within the legendary Biden +27/McAuliffe +4 state senate district.  #4 here doesn't look quite as impressive, but it's probably the fastest Dem-trending area of the state.  The takeaway here is that HoD Dems can still overcome another outer NOVA revolt through seats 2-4, while state senate Dems are entirely dependent on those 2 seats. 

I think in the HOD, you are missing the Biden + 11/Youngkin +2 south side seat (Kim Taylor).

[Person Man]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

I agree, it’s kind of hard to say a Youngkin +1 seat is even really a tossup. 2021 is the high mark of Virginia Republicans post-2010, and acting like Youngkin +1 is the starting baseline is very misleading. Something like 2022 would be more realistic.

Democrats currently have 19 totally safe seats in the state senate.  Because a 20/20 tie currently goes to Republicans through the LG, Democrats will have to win 2 out of these

1. A Biden +9/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 Hampton Roads seat
2. A Biden +7/Youngkin +5/2022 Dem +0.4 Southside seat
3. A Biden +13/Youngkin +1/2022 Dem +5 outer Loudoun seat.
4. A  Biden +27/McAuliffe +4/2022 Dem +6 outer Prince William seat

The exposure here to areas that look strong Dem on paper but snapped back after Biden is significant.

By contrast, a tie in the HoD cannot be broken and would deny R's a trifecta.  Dems are currently at 48 seats, but the old map was more Republican leaning than the new map will be.  Essentially, there are already 48 totally safe Dem seats  on the new map.  The next 4 most likely Dem seats are:

1. A Biden +27/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +2 seat in western Prince William (yes, seriously)
2. A Biden +12/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +9 college town seat
3. A Biden +12/Youngkin +2/2022 Dem +5 seat in Virginia Beach
4. A Biden +5/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 seat in Western Henrico (yes, seriously)

Note that #1 here is unsurprisingly within the legendary Biden +27/McAuliffe +4 state senate district.  #4 here doesn't look quite as impressive, but it's probably the fastest Dem-trending area of the state.  The takeaway here is that HoD Dems can still overcome another outer NOVA revolt through seats 2-4, while state senate Dems are entirely dependent on those 2 seats. 

I think in the HOD, you are missing the Biden + 11/Youngkin +2 south side seat (Kim Taylor).

So both chambers are probably Tilt D to Lean D?

[Skill and Chance]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.

I agree, it’s kind of hard to say a Youngkin +1 seat is even really a tossup. 2021 is the high mark of Virginia Republicans post-2010, and acting like Youngkin +1 is the starting baseline is very misleading. Something like 2022 would be more realistic.

Democrats currently have 19 totally safe seats in the state senate.  Because a 20/20 tie currently goes to Republicans through the LG, Democrats will have to win 2 out of these

1. A Biden +9/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 Hampton Roads seat
2. A Biden +7/Youngkin +5/2022 Dem +0.4 Southside seat
3. A Biden +13/Youngkin +1/2022 Dem +5 outer Loudoun seat.
4. A  Biden +27/McAuliffe +4/2022 Dem +6 outer Prince William seat

The exposure here to areas that look strong Dem on paper but snapped back after Biden is significant.

By contrast, a tie in the HoD cannot be broken and would deny R's a trifecta.  Dems are currently at 48 seats, but the old map was more Republican leaning than the new map will be.  Essentially, there are already 48 totally safe Dem seats  on the new map.  The next 4 most likely Dem seats are:

1. A Biden +27/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +2 seat in western Prince William (yes, seriously)
2. A Biden +12/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +9 college town seat
3. A Biden +12/Youngkin +2/2022 Dem +5 seat in Virginia Beach
4. A Biden +5/Youngkin +3/2022 Dem +1 seat in Western Henrico (yes, seriously)

Note that #1 here is unsurprisingly within the legendary Biden +27/McAuliffe +4 state senate district.  #4 here doesn't look quite as impressive, but it's probably the fastest Dem-trending area of the state.  The takeaway here is that HoD Dems can still overcome another outer NOVA revolt through seats 2-4, while state senate Dems are entirely dependent on those 2 seats. 

I think in the HOD, you are missing the Biden + 11/Youngkin +2 south side seat (Kim Taylor).

So both chambers are probably Tilt D to Lean D?

Well, looking at that distribution of seats, and including the additional Southside one, I am tempted to describe the lower house as Lean D but Likely Not R because of a tie being unbroken.  However, R's do currently control it, so IDK, but that was in part because there was malapportionment against NOVA with the map being used for an extra cycle and because it remained something of an R gerrymander north of Richmond (the part of the map not impacted by the late 2010's  court ruling).

In the state senate, it feels like everything is riding on that outer Loudoun seat now, and R's have a moderate federal consultant type candidate who can easily distinguish himself from Trump.  They also nominated some people in NOVA who could make great R campaign ads.  I'm actually inclined to call it a toss up.

[Nyvin]

Russet Perry seems like a great candidate for SD-31 though, so the chances of a D majority are pretty good saying they win that and SD-16.

[CelestialAlchemy]

I'm excited to see how Danica Roem does in her state senate race, how blue is SD-30? She's always been one of my favorites ever since her first run.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I'm excited to see how Danica Roem does in her state senate race, how blue is SD-30? She's always been one of my favorites ever since her first run.

According to VPAP (great website every state should have one) the district hasn’t vote for a Republican since before 2016, even voted for McAuliffe in 2021 by about 4 points. So not a complete safe seat but Roem’s record for constituent service will serve her greatly. She is definitely favored.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1671524636805283843?cxt=HHwWhoC-oaKzubIuAAAA
Petersen losing was very disappointing, but the GOP primary results were excellent. I swear some kind of switch flipped as soon as Trump left the White House.

You know Trump is still leading by 40 points in GOP primary polls, right?

[Skill and Chance]

McPike netted a bunch of votes from the late-arriving mail ballots and has likely clinched in SD-29.

[Aurelius2]

Cunningham and Coffey won the nomination after RCV was tabulated.

Looks like I'll be voting for Cunningham and Audrey Clement this fall.

[LabourJersey]

Cunningham and Coffey won the nomination after RCV was tabulated.

Looks like I'll be voting for Cunningham and Audrey Clement this fall.

The tabulation of the RCV was odd (really don't think that there was a need to wait until 5:30pm on a Friday to announce this).

Still surprised by the results -- I assumed that Roy and Spain would be the victor. Ultimately it was close though--just 700 votes separated Coffey and Spain in Spain's last round, for instance.

[Skill and Chance]

Cunningham and Coffey won the nomination after RCV was tabulated.

Looks like I'll be voting for Cunningham and Audrey Clement this fall.

The tabulation of the RCV was odd (really don't think that there was a need to wait until 5:30pm on a Friday to announce this).

Still surprised by the results -- I assumed that Roy and Spain would be the victor. Ultimately it was close though--just 700 votes separated Coffey and Spain in Spain's last round, for instance.

They had to wait because mail-in votes postmarked by election day and received up to some time during the business day on Friday count in Virginia.  You can't start RCV without having all of the votes in.

If California ever did RCV statewide, we wouldn't know the results until Christmas Eve!

[Oryxslayer]

Cunningham and Coffey won the nomination after RCV was tabulated.

Looks like I'll be voting for Cunningham and Audrey Clement this fall.

The tabulation of the RCV was odd (really don't think that there was a need to wait until 5:30pm on a Friday to announce this).

Still surprised by the results -- I assumed that Roy and Spain would be the victor. Ultimately it was close though--just 700 votes separated Coffey and Spain in Spain's last round, for instance.

They had to wait because mail-in votes postmarked by election day and received up to some time during the business day on Friday count in Virginia.  You can't start RCV without having all of the votes in.

If California ever did RCV statewide, we wouldn't know the results until Christmas Eve!

Funnily enough some Californian localities do various form of RCV - you'll be surprised at the multiplicity of local election systems that exist if a state allows them to. The last seriously sizable and multi-candidate one was SF when Breed ran for the first time.  What the city did was have a live updating transfer calculator  similar to Australia,  and it was about ten days before the totals were small enough to project a winner.

[Person Man]

Did the primaries really change the trajectory that much?

[Skill and Chance]

Did the primaries really change the trajectory that much?

Well, a lot of the number crunchers went into this with the assumption that the VA State Senate would close to Likely D while the HoD would be a toss up.  However, several things have happened to change this assessment leading to a place where both chambers could reasonably flip:

1. A 20/20 tie in the state senate goes to R's through the LG, while a 50/50 tie in the HoD cannot be broken and leads to power sharing unless someone switches parties (note there are no remaining rural Dems in the HoD who would obviously consider switching).

2. Individual candidates matter more in the smaller state senate.  Both of the strong Dem incumbents in Lean R rural-ish districts retired and R's nominated their strongest candidate in every one of the several Lean R Biden +5-10/Youngkin +5-10 seats.  They also a Susan Collins type candidate who is a moderately pro-choice OBGYN who already won a significantly Clinton 2016 district in the 2019 elections running in a Richmond area Dem-leaning seat (admittedly, it's a stretch at Biden +16, but D's will at the very least have to divert resources there).  If she gets through and R's win all of the Lean R districts, they have tied even without the median Biden +13/Youngkin +1 district.  However, this cuts the other way in the HoD because R's need to sweep several Biden +12ish districts with anonymous people. 

3. Outer NOVA is shaky.  The VA-10 area contains the most likely decisive seat for state senate control and it barely voted left of 2021 Youngkin/McAuliffe in the 2022 US House elections.  The Biden numbers probably don't work there anymore.

4. On the other hand, downstate college towns look great for Dems and turnout was surprisingly high in these areas in the primary.  Many of the decisive seats are anchored by college towns.  There's also a seat in the Richmond suburbs that is racing left.  Biden barely won it, but then it voted for McAuliffe in 2021 and the no-name congressional Dem in 2022.  They only need to win a couple of these seats to count to 50. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Did the primaries really change the trajectory that much?

Well, a lot of the number crunchers went into this with the assumption that the VA State Senate would close to Likely D while the HoD would be a toss up.  However, several things have happened to change this assessment leading to a place where both chambers could reasonably flip:

1. A 20/20 tie in the state senate goes to R's through the LG, while a 50/50 tie in the HoD cannot be broken and leads to power sharing unless someone switches parties (note there are no remaining rural Dems in the HoD who would obviously consider switching).

2. Individual candidates matter more in the smaller state senate.  Both of the strong Dem incumbents in Lean R rural-ish districts retired and R's nominated their strongest candidate in every one of the several Lean R Biden +5-10/Youngkin +5-10 seats.  They also a Susan Collins type candidate who is a moderately pro-choice OBGYN who already won a significantly Clinton 2016 district in the 2019 elections running in a Richmond area Dem-leaning seat (admittedly, it's a stretch at Biden +16, but D's will at the very least have to divert resources there).  If she gets through and R's win all of the Lean R districts, they have tied even without the median Biden +13/Youngkin +1 district.  However, this cuts the other way in the HoD because R's need to sweep several Biden +12ish districts with anonymous people.  

3. Outer NOVA is shaky.  The VA-10 area contains the most likely decisive seat for state senate control and it barely voted left of 2021 Youngkin/McAuliffe in the 2022 US House elections.  The Biden numbers probably don't work there anymore.

4. On the other hand, downstate college towns look great for Dems and turnout was surprisingly high in these areas in the primary.  Many of the decisive seats are anchored by college towns.  There's also a seat in the Richmond suburbs that is racing left.  Biden barely won it, but then it voted for McAuliffe in 2021 and the no-name congressional Dem in 2022.  They only need to win a couple of these seats to count to 50.  

Respectfully, I think your analysis here is fundamentally flawed in that you seem to be implicitly treating Youngkin numbers as more significant than the Biden 2020 numbers.  The Biden 2020 numbers are far more useful as a baseline than the Youngkin 2021 numbers.  The latter were basically the perfect storm, tsunami-level Republican wave absolute high-water mark for Virginia Republicans in NOVA.  While neither data set represents a perfect baseline, it would be a mistake to treat the Youngkin numbers in NOVA as anything more than a freak fluke.  It'd be like treating the 2021 New Jersey Governor results as the default baseline in New Jersey going forward.

[Person Man]

Did the primaries really change the trajectory that much?

Well, a lot of the number crunchers went into this with the assumption that the VA State Senate would close to Likely D while the HoD would be a toss up.  However, several things have happened to change this assessment leading to a place where both chambers could reasonably flip:

1. A 20/20 tie in the state senate goes to R's through the LG, while a 50/50 tie in the HoD cannot be broken and leads to power sharing unless someone switches parties (note there are no remaining rural Dems in the HoD who would obviously consider switching).

2. Individual candidates matter more in the smaller state senate.  Both of the strong Dem incumbents in Lean R rural-ish districts retired and R's nominated their strongest candidate in every one of the several Lean R Biden +5-10/Youngkin +5-10 seats.  They also a Susan Collins type candidate who is a moderately pro-choice OBGYN who already won a significantly Clinton 2016 district in the 2019 elections running in a Richmond area Dem-leaning seat (admittedly, it's a stretch at Biden +16, but D's will at the very least have to divert resources there).  If she gets through and R's win all of the Lean R districts, they have tied even without the median Biden +13/Youngkin +1 district.  However, this cuts the other way in the HoD because R's need to sweep several Biden +12ish districts with anonymous people.  

3. Outer NOVA is shaky.  The VA-10 area contains the most likely decisive seat for state senate control and it barely voted left of 2021 Youngkin/McAuliffe in the 2022 US House elections.  The Biden numbers probably don't work there anymore.

4. On the other hand, downstate college towns look great for Dems and turnout was surprisingly high in these areas in the primary.  Many of the decisive seats are anchored by college towns.  There's also a seat in the Richmond suburbs that is racing left.  Biden barely won it, but then it voted for McAuliffe in 2021 and the no-name congressional Dem in 2022.  They only need to win a couple of these seats to count to 50.  

Respectfully, I think your analysis here is fundamentally flawed in that you seem to be implicitly treating Youngkin numbers as more significant than the Biden 2020 numbers.  The Biden 2020 numbers are far more useful as a baseline than the Youngkin 2021 numbers.  The latter were basically the perfect storm, tsunami-level Republican wave absolute high-water mark for Virginia Republicans in NOVA.  While neither data set represents a perfect baseline, it would be a mistake to treat the Youngkin numbers in NOVA as anything more than a freak fluke.  It'd be like treating the 2021 New Jersey Governor results as the default baseline in New Jersey going forward.

Wasn’t 2022 almost the average of 2020 and 2021?

[Duke of York]

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1003443
https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1003442

It seems the Democrat was kicked off the ballot in the ninth and tenth senate districts because they did not file paperwork on time and the Board of Elections refused to extend it. Why couldn't they just file on time?

The second district is the Tenth District. Did Democrats just automatically lose one seat unless the write in campaign succeeds?

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1003443
https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=1003442

It seems the Democrat was kicked off the ballot in the ninth and tenth senate districts because they did not file paperwork on time and the Board of Elections refused to extend it. Why couldn't they just file on time?

The second district is the Tenth District. Did Democrats just automatically lose one seat unless the write in campaign succeeds?

Those districts are both safe R >65% Youngkin seats on the new map.  It's not surprising Dems wouldn't contest them.  Special elections as late as this year happened on the old maps.  The old District 9 was a black-majority VRA seat east of Richmond and the old District 10 was a competitive suburban seat west of Richmond held by a moderate R in the Obama era that became very Dem after Trump and flipped in 2019.  They both became blood red rural/exurbs seats after redistricting/renumbering. 

[Thank you for being a friend...]

I'm excited to see how Danica Roem does in her state senate race, how blue is SD-30? She's always been one of my favorites ever since her first run.

According to VPAP (great website every state should have one) the district hasn’t vote for a Republican since before 2016, even voted for McAuliffe in 2021 by about 4 points. So not a complete safe seat but Roem’s record for constituent service will serve her greatly. She is definitely favored.

The website is great and should be expanded to all of the states.  It makes it much easier for us because a lot of the data is there on one page.

I also hope she wins!

[Frodo]

He is certainly a 2028 GOP contender once his term ends, though he could run in 2026 against Sen. Mark Warner:

Youngkin approval rating at record high amid 2024 speculation

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) approval rating reached a record high amid speculation about his political ambitions, according to a poll released Monday.

Fifty-seven percent of Virginia voters said they approved of Youngkin’s job performance, according to a Morning Consult survey. The poll also showed Youngkin’s disapproval rating at 32 percent. The latest polling shows a steady improvement for the Virginia governor, who had a 56 percent approval rating and a 32 percent disapproval rating in April.

In December, Youngkin held a 55 percent approval rating and a 32 percent disapproval rating, while last April, he had a 53 percent approval rating and a 35 percent disapproval rating. In January 2022, Youngkin started out his first term as governor with a 51 percent approval rating and a 35 percent disapproval rating.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Haven’t all the VA governors of the last like 20+ years been really popular? McAulliffe, McDonnell, Kaine, and Warner all enjoyed high approval ratings during their terms, so I’m wondering if Virginia’s population just likes their political figures more than other states.

[jamestroll]

Haven’t all the VA governors of the last like 20+ years been really popular? McAulliffe, McDonnell, Kaine, and Warner all enjoyed high approval ratings during their terms, so I’m wondering if Virginia’s population just likes their political figures more than other states.

Yes, there was a time when Terry McAufflie was widely popular.

By summer and fall 2021, Non Swing Voter and myself were the only people in the entire state genuinely EXCITED about him.

The only reason he almost won was because VA leans Democratic.