NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[😥]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1458180626243375104?t=JJleKQX1m1kdszep06Gv1Q...

[Horus]

I had a feeling he wasn't gonna run. He's very much a traditional fiscal conservative, there's really no place in the federal GOP for him but he's perfect for a libertarian state like NH.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Dems have a better chance of holding the Senate than the House.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1458180626243375104?t=JJleKQX1m1kdszep06Gv1Q...

Oh my goooodness...please please please let it be so

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Congrats Senator-elect Bolduc!

[roxas11]

There is no way to spin this as good news for GOP at all because before this announcement I would have said they were the favorites to take back the senate but now if feel like its back to a tossup

They still have a decent chance at winning, but the path to taking the senate just got a lot harder without Sununu because the GOP will now have to invest way more time and resources into trying to win the state. Not only does this news hurt them in NH it also will hurt them in other states because they will have less money to spend on other races like Georgia

As of of now I think the race race is a lean D
It's not impossible for the GOP to still win, but at this point it would not surprise me at all if the Dems ended up winning NH in 2022

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1458205587422990337?s=21

[SnowLabrador]

Messner would be the worst possible choice.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1458205587422990337?s=21

Lol doesn't Messner support Q?
https://manchesterinklink.com/the-question-of-qanon-how-deep-do-conspiracy-theories-run-in-nh-politics/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chris Sununu didn't want to end his career losing to Hassan thats why he didn't run


All the Rs do is block they never pass legislation

[😥]

Lean D as for now. Wake me up when we know Republican nominee. In few cases I can see this race becoming Likely D even bordering on Safe D

[Ferguson97]

I try to avoid conspiracy theories but will just come out and say it: there is something deeply, deeply suspicious about the chorus of top-tier Republicans ruling out this race in rapid succession.

I can't possibly think of an angle where this could be a positive for them...

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Lean D as for now. Wake me up when we know Republican nominee. In few cases I can see this race becoming Likely D even bordering on Safe D

So far the front-runners are a lunatic, a carpetbagger, and a disgraced ex-Congressman.

The only A-list candidate that could make this competitive is Frank Edelblut.

[Chips]

Toss-up to a slight Lean D I feel. This is still no sleeper race and I'm sure both sides will still be giving the state plenty of attention. That said, this does lower the amount of options the GOP has and increases the pressure for them to win one of NV, AZ or GA.

[Ferguson97]

It cannot be understated how badly the NH GOP fumbled this...

1. Terrible national environment for the Democrats.

2. Hassan only won by 1,000 in a neutral environment.

3. Sununu is an extremely popular Governor. Ayotte is a semi-popular former Senator who barely lost last time.

4. New England LOVES being bipartisan(TM).

This borders on malpractice.

[Brittain33]

I try to avoid conspiracy theories but will just come out and say it: there is something deeply, deeply suspicious about the chorus of top-tier Republicans ruling out this race in rapid succession.

I don't get it. Spell it out for us?

It stands to reason that Sununu was waiting until after the Virginia election to announce his decision - I can see not wanting to say no and be blamed for hurting Youngkin, even if that's ridiculous - and that Youngkin's good showing didn't change his mind on running. Everyone was waiting for Sununu.

[NHI]

It cannot be understated how badly the NH GOP fumbled this...

1. Terrible national environment for the Democrats.

2. Hassan only won by 1,000 in a neutral environment.

3. Sununu is an extremely popular Governor. Ayotte is a semi-popular former Senator who barely lost last time.

4. New England LOVES being bipartisan(TM).

This borders on malpractice.

The lightbulbs seldom go on in the NHGOP hq

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It cannot be understated how badly the NH GOP fumbled this...

1. Terrible national environment for the Democrats.

2. Hassan only won by 1,000 in a neutral environment.

3. Sununu is an extremely popular Governor. Ayotte is a semi-popular former Senator who barely lost last time.

4. New England LOVES being bipartisan(TM).

This borders on malpractice.

The election is freaking 365 days you are extrapolating too much in VA and NJ


If Bobby Scott runs in 2025 he would be odds on Fav to heat Sears, Terry was a retread


We won VA and NJ by 10 in 2020 due to Warner and Booker running with Biden


The NPVI wasn't 60/40 it was 50/45 Biden will be on par with that by Election 2022

We are gonna win WI, PA and GA and OH are on the bubble because Mandel isn't leading by 10 that Trump won OH bye, he is tied to leading only by 4

FL Gov is winnable due to Stone threat to run as a Libertarian

SUNUNU was only up 3/5 pts Ayotte was leading by that amount against Hassan on 2016 and she Lost that isnt a secure lead



Thankfully, no more MT Treasurer, whom has yet to post about how much SUNUNU is gonna win by, we are free 😁😁😁😁Yabba Dabba Doo

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1458180626243375104?t=JJleKQX1m1kdszep06Gv1Q...

Carol Shea-Porter needs to primary Hassan if he's running. The rivalry must continue

[MillennialModerate]

I try to avoid conspiracy theories but will just come out and say it: there is something deeply, deeply suspicious about the chorus of top-tier Republicans ruling out this race in rapid succession.

 … What are you implying?

That trump has a canidate ?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1458180626243375104?t=JJleKQX1m1kdszep06Gv1Q...

Carol Shea-Porter needs to primary Hassan if he's running. The rivalry must continue

She needs to primary Hassan regardless

[South Dakota Democrat]

lol https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1458086111511781393

I’d love to hear the backstory behind the decision not to give them a heads-up

He doesn't owe them anything.

[Nyvin]

If the NHGOP has to choose between Guinta and Messner they skipped right over B-list and C-list and went straight to D-list candidates.

[MargieCat]

There's always Corey Lewandowski...

[NewYorkExpress]

With Sununu out, I'd move this race from Likely R to Lean R. Most Republican candidates should beat Hassan in this climate, and it would take a spectacular recruiting fail for her to win.

[DaleCooper]

lol https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1458086111511781393

I’d love to hear the backstory behind the decision not to give them a heads-up

He doesn't owe them anything.

Now that the Senate is basically just a place for party-line votes (or abject hatred from everyone if you don't fall in line) and never-ending gridlock, it really isn't much different than the House anymore in the sense that it's just a bad job. He probably sees that and has decided that he's more comfortable working in state politics for now and if that's the case, the less association he has with McConnell the better. Congressional leadership has approval ratings in the toilet right now and it'd be bad for his brand to even imply that he works with them. The same goes for swing state Democratic governors.