NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[swf541]

Have to imagine that NHGOP internal polling must not look as good as conventional wisdom suggests if both Sununu and Ayotte are passing on this race.

Either that, or neither of them wants to risk being the 51st GOP vote and having to run for reelection in a Presidential year.

He apparently thinks he has a better chance of being president if he remains governor

Probably accurate, being a gop 51st senate vote would prob be p bad if he has presidential ambitions.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/lisakashinsky/status/1458127912582983693?s=21

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1458095469431775237?s=21

[2016]

Good for him, I’d want to stay out of Washington as well.

Also good for him for helping Dems keep the Senate

Honestly if I were you I wouldn't pop up the Champagne here! Unlike 2020 when Warnock & Kelly were fresh faces with no baggage these two will be defined by their Voting Record. Consistently Voting for Progressive Ideas and 100 % with the Biden Administration won't help them. And so will be Maggie Hassan.

Schumer is making the same mistakes Harry Reid did prior to 2014.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This is either a great sign for Democrats…or a very bad one, if Republicans think they can win the seat with a lower-tier recruit (idk) or that they don’t need it to win the Senate (probably).

[GALeftist]

It might not end up mattering – as we saw in Virginia and New Jersey, voters now are more than happy to just saunter into the polling booth and pull the lever for whatever fool happens to have an R by their name if their 48 gallons of milk per month cost too much now – but the Republicans are really botching recruitment thus far. Just to recap their likely candidates:

NH-SEN: Probably Bolduc at this point (crackpot 2020 conspiracy theorist in a Biden+7 state).
PA-SEN: Sean Parnell looks likely (alleged wife and child abuser).
GA-SEN: Herschel Walker almost certainly (lives in Texas, insane, another wife abuser).
NV-SEN: Adam Laxalt almost certainly (another conspiracy theorist in a Biden state, though probably the best of the bunch so far; at least he has held elected office).
OH-SEN (extremely probably not competitive anyway but still): Likely either Josh Mandel or JD Vance.
MO-SEN (not competitive anyway but still): Eric Greitens at least possible (a third candidate who abuses women!)

At this point, really the only remotely competitive race which hasn't been a complete recruitment flop is Arizona with Brnovich, and even then Arizona has a time honored tradition of messy primaries where the candidates trip over themselves racing right.

[mtvoter]

if Republicans think they can win the seat with a lower-tier recruit (idk) or that they don’t need it to win the Senate (probably).

I think you're overthinking it.

Wait until the NRSC thinks: "we just need Matt Rosendale to beat Tester, save the better candidates" in 2024 and end up losing by 600 votes.

[2016]

It might not end up mattering – as we saw in Virginia and New Jersey, voters now are more than happy to just saunter into the polling booth and pull the lever for whatever fool happens to have an R by their name if their 48 gallons of milk per month cost too much now – but the Republicans are really botching recruitment thus far. Just to recap their likely candidates:

NH-SEN: Probably Bolduc at this point (crackpot 2020 conspiracy theorist in a Biden+7 state).
PA-SEN: Sean Parnell looks likely (alleged wife and child abuser).
GA-SEN: Herschel Walker almost certainly (lives in Texas, insane, another wife abuser).
NV-SEN: Adam Laxalt almost certainly (another conspiracy theorist in a Biden state, though probably the best of the bunch so far; at least he has held elected office).
OH-SEN (extremely probably not competitive anyway but still): Likely either Josh Mandel or JD Vance.
MO-SEN (not competitive anyway but still): Eric Greitens at least possible (a third candidate who abuses women!)

At this point, really the only remotely competitive race which hasn't been a complete recruitment flop is Arizona with Brnovich, and even then Arizona has a time honored tradition of messy primaries where the candidates trip over themselves racing right.

There are 6 States Biden won in the 2020 Presidential Election:
Pennsylvania
Arizona
New Hampshire
Nevada
Georgia
and Wisconsin

In 4 of those States an Incumbent Democratic Senator is running for Re-Election (Kelly, Hassan, Cortez-Masto and Warnock). Realistically Democrats have only 2 Pick-Up Opportunities (PA & WI). Wisconsin is only a Pick-Up Opportunity if Johnson runs for Re-Election. If he bails and the GOP nominates either Mike Gallagher or Brian Steil that Opportunity is gone.

Why people like Olowakandi still think Democrats have a shot at winning OH, MO or NC is beyond me.

Trump won OH by 8 Points in 2016 & 2020 and MO by 18 Points (2016) and 16 Points (2020). DeWine won the OH Governorship in a D+8 Wave Year. McCaskill couldn't hold her Seat in a Wave Year.

And then we have NC and in a Biden Midterm no way Democrats are going to win there.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It might not end up mattering – as we saw in Virginia and New Jersey, voters now are more than happy to just saunter into the polling booth and pull the lever for whatever fool happens to have an R by their name if their 48 gallons of milk per month cost too much now – but the Republicans are really botching recruitment thus far. Just to recap their likely candidates:

NH-SEN: Probably Bolduc at this point (crackpot 2020 conspiracy theorist in a Biden+7 state).
PA-SEN: Sean Parnell looks likely (alleged wife and child abuser).
GA-SEN: Herschel Walker almost certainly (lives in Texas, insane, another wife abuser).
NV-SEN: Adam Laxalt almost certainly (another conspiracy theorist in a Biden state, though probably the best of the bunch so far; at least he has held elected office).
OH-SEN (extremely probably not competitive anyway but still): Likely either Josh Mandel or JD Vance.
MO-SEN (not competitive anyway but still): Eric Greitens at least possible (a third candidate who abuses women!)

At this point, really the only remotely competitive race which hasn't been a complete recruitment flop is Arizona with Brnovich, and even then Arizona has a time honored tradition of messy primaries where the candidates trip over themselves racing right.

War on Women II?

[Woody]

Well at least with Bolduc we have a 100% MAGA senator from NH's delegation if he wins.

So if I were on the other side I wouldn't celebrate just yet. This is still going to be a race under 5 points.

[Xing]

It might not end up mattering – as we saw in Virginia and New Jersey, voters now are more than happy to just saunter into the polling booth and pull the lever for whatever fool happens to have an R by their name if their 48 gallons of milk per month cost too much now – but the Republicans are really botching recruitment thus far. Just to recap their likely candidates:

NH-SEN: Probably Bolduc at this point (crackpot 2020 conspiracy theorist in a Biden+7 state).
PA-SEN: Sean Parnell looks likely (alleged wife and child abuser).
GA-SEN: Herschel Walker almost certainly (lives in Texas, insane, another wife abuser).
NV-SEN: Adam Laxalt almost certainly (another conspiracy theorist in a Biden state, though probably the best of the bunch so far; at least he has held elected office).
OH-SEN (extremely probably not competitive anyway but still): Likely either Josh Mandel or JD Vance.
MO-SEN (not competitive anyway but still): Eric Greitens at least possible (a third candidate who abuses women!)

At this point, really the only remotely competitive race which hasn't been a complete recruitment flop is Arizona with Brnovich, and even then Arizona has a time honored tradition of messy primaries where the candidates trip over themselves racing right.

The environment might be strong enough for Republicans that it doesn't matter, not to mention voters haven't exactly punished Republicans for their actions or views as of late, but I'm glad I'm not the only one recognizing that Laxalt and Walker aren't god-tier candidates.

[JMT]

Other interesting news: some Republicans are encouraging Matt Mowers to switch to the Senate race, now that Sununu, Ayotte, and Brown are out.

https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1458142489706209288?s=21

[Pericles]

Ha ha ha, Republicans just suffered a big setback. Lean D.

[MATTROSE94]

I am shocked, though maybe instead Chris Sununu wants to remain in office and eventually become the longest serving governor in US history. I guess Adam Laxalt is now the most likely new Republican Senator in 2022. 

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1458158930018848770?s=21

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

tossup -> lean D

[2016]

Other interesting news: some Republicans are encouraging Matt Mowers to switch to the Senate race, now that Sununu, Ayotte, and Brown are out.

https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1458142489706209288?s=21

Honestly I am quite surprised no one is mentioning Frank Edelblut here who is currently the Education Commissioner in New Hampshire giving how Youngkin managed to make Education a Top Issue in the VA Governor Race.

LET'S GO FRANK, DO IT!

[President Johnson]

Wow, Maggie Hassan really got lucky by Sununu not running. This would have the race made Lean Republican even though she wouldn't have been DOA (contrary to some beliefs). Ayotte not running either is really good news.

However, the race is Lean Democratic at best. Kelly, Warnock and CCM seem more vulnerable now. Nonetheless, the Democratic Senate campaign committee should heavily invest in this race, just like they would have with Sununu. It's not a sure thing in a red-leaning environment.

[2016]

Wow, Maggie Hassan really got lucky by Sununu not running. This would have the race made Lean Republican even though she wouldn't have been DOA (contrary to some beliefs). Ayotte not running either is really good news.

However, the race is Lean Democratic at best. Kelly, Warnock and CCM seem more vulnerable now. Nonetheless, the Democratic Senate campaign committee should heavily invest in this race, just like they would have with Sununu. It's not a sure thing in a red-leaning environment.

I'd rather have someone like a Mike Braun type-Republican from outside the beltway running against Hassan. Mike Braun wasn't the 1st Choice in Indiana in 2018. Everyone was focused on Rokita and Messer.

Youngkin, who won the VA Governorship was a "Nobody". I like these sort of Republican Candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, Maggie Hassan really got lucky by Sununu not running. This would have the race made Lean Republican even though she wouldn't have been DOA (contrary to some beliefs). Ayotte not running either is really good news.

However, the race is Lean Democratic at best. Kelly, Warnock and CCM seem more vulnerable now. Nonetheless, the Democratic Senate campaign committee should heavily invest in this race, just like they would have with Sununu. It's not a sure thing in a red-leaning environment.

I'd rather have someone like a Mike Braun type-Republican from outside the beltway running against Hassan. Mike Braun wasn't the 1st Choice in Indiana in 2018. Everyone was focused on Rokita and Messer.

Youngkin, who won the VA Governorship was a "Nobody". I like these sort of Republican Candidates.

Terry McAuliffe was a retread like Crist is, if Bobby Scott runs against Sears or someone brand new we could of won and will win it in 2025

Newsom, got luckily in the recall because Biden wasn't underwater in Sept, if the recall happened now, since everyone didn't get a stimulus he would have Lost


MT Treasurer have yet to comment, Chris Sununu was his pal

[Pollster]

Other interesting news: some Republicans are encouraging Matt Mowers to switch to the Senate race, now that Sununu, Ayotte, and Brown are out.

https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1458142489706209288?s=21

Honestly I am quite surprised no one is mentioning Frank Edelblut here who is currently the Education Commissioner in New Hampshire giving how Youngkin managed to make Education a Top Issue in the VA Governor Race.

LET'S GO FRANK, DO IT!

Education is generally much more significant in non-federal races, he'd be a much more suitable candidate for Governor if Sununu had gone for Senate.

[Pollster]

I try to avoid conspiracy theories but will just come out and say it: there is something deeply, deeply suspicious about the chorus of top-tier Republicans ruling out this race in rapid succession.

[2016]

Wow, Maggie Hassan really got lucky by Sununu not running. This would have the race made Lean Republican even though she wouldn't have been DOA (contrary to some beliefs). Ayotte not running either is really good news.

However, the race is Lean Democratic at best. Kelly, Warnock and CCM seem more vulnerable now. Nonetheless, the Democratic Senate campaign committee should heavily invest in this race, just like they would have with Sununu. It's not a sure thing in a red-leaning environment.

I'd rather have someone like a Mike Braun type-Republican from outside the beltway running against Hassan. Mike Braun wasn't the 1st Choice in Indiana in 2018. Everyone was focused on Rokita and Messer.

Youngkin, who won the VA Governorship was a "Nobody". I like these sort of Republican Candidates.

Terry McAuliffe was a retread like Crist is, if Bobby Scott runs against Sears or someone brand new we could of won and will win it in 2025

Newsom, got luckily in the recall because Biden wasn't underwater in Sept, if the recall happened now, since everyone didn't get a stimulus he would have Lost


MT Treasurer have yet to comment, Chris Sununu was his pal

You are talking nonsense Olowakandi! The Education Issue won't go away in 2022 or anytime soon!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Obviously, this race is still competitive and the GOP can still win it, but I just can't imagine Bolduc winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, Maggie Hassan really got lucky by Sununu not running. This would have the race made Lean Republican even though she wouldn't have been DOA (contrary to some beliefs). Ayotte not running either is really good news.

However, the race is Lean Democratic at best. Kelly, Warnock and CCM seem more vulnerable now. Nonetheless, the Democratic Senate campaign committee should heavily invest in this race, just like they would have with Sununu. It's not a sure thing in a red-leaning environment.

I'd rather have someone like a Mike Braun type-Republican from outside the beltway running against Hassan. Mike Braun wasn't the 1st Choice in Indiana in 2018. Everyone was focused on Rokita and Messer.

Youngkin, who won the VA Governorship was a "Nobody". I like these sort of Republican Candidates.

Terry McAuliffe was a retread like Crist is, if Bobby Scott runs against Sears or someone brand new we could of won and will win it in 2025

Newsom, got luckily in the recall because Biden wasn't underwater in Sept, if the recall happened now, since everyone didn't get a stimulus he would have Lost


MT Treasurer have yet to comment, Chris Sununu was his pal

You are talking nonsense Olowakandi! The Education Issue won't go away in 2022 or anytime soon!

D's lead for your info on the GCB 44/37 in case you don't know that, but all you see is Biden low Approvals , Biden won 50/45 not 60/40 D's will win the blue wall, but you don't go to pbower2A Approvals so you don't know that Rs are still trailing on the GCB, they are losing PA, AZ, GA and we were winning NH without Sununu, when has Cook or Sabato ratings in the Senate changed to Senate being R favored

Sabato got WI tilt R but Cook has it Tossup, Charity poll had Barnes tied with Johnson but all the other polls had Tom Nelson leads Johnson

[Figueira]

This is one of the funniest things that's happened in politics recently. The posts in the thread before the announcement are hilarious.

Still a competitive race though, and we shouldn't count out low-tier candidates.