NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[free my dawg]

Feeling a bit better about this race than I was pre-2020; NH was a bright spot for Democrats this cycles, at least on the federal level. Despite this though, I do think ME-Sen has shown us how in some of these smaller states, particularly those in the North East, "canidate quality" can still affect results. Jeanne Shaheen, for instance, had a pretty solid overperformance of Biden, and I think that spells out a bit of trouble for Dems in NH-Sen 2022, the same way King's performance showed that split ticket voting was still alive and well in Maine.

I'd say Shaheen's overperformance was because of Messner's various problems. A more conventional candidate with roots here would have ran more evenly.

I'm definitely a lot more bullish on Sununu's chances than everyone else. Unlike Scott, Sununu's actual politics/style are a fit for the state.

[free my dawg]

Feeling a bit better about this race than I was pre-2020; NH was a bright spot for Democrats this cycles, at least on the federal level. Despite this though, I do think ME-Sen has shown us how in some of these smaller states, particularly those in the North East, "canidate quality" can still affect results. Jeanne Shaheen, for instance, had a pretty solid overperformance of Biden, and I think that spells out a bit of trouble for Dems in NH-Sen 2022, the same way King's performance showed that split ticket voting was still alive and well in Maine.

I'd say Shaheen's overperformance was because of Messner's various problems. A more conventional candidate with roots here would have ran more evenly.

I'm definitely a lot more bullish on Sununu's chances than everyone else. Unlike Scott, Sununu's actual politics/style are a fit for the state.

I agree, and NH has more of a willingness to split ballot than FL, but I'm not counting Shaheen out, especially if this race becomes too heavily nationalized and if McConnel overplays his hand.

Of course, there's the wild card that is the GOP legislature. It's one thing to govern with a Democratic House and Senate. It's a completely different thing when you have to rein in your legislature. On issues like Planned Parenthood funding, it will be difficult to get the GOP to fall in line.

[free my dawg]

My point was more that ‘candidate quality’ advantages only get you so far in wave elections these days. If Republicans hold the GA seats, then yeah, I’d agree that Republicans probably need Sununu to actually flip the state, but if not, I think any competent state legislator or businessman could give Hassan and the other two vulnerable Democrats a run for their money b/c Manchin won’t be able to do his usual con job and any Democrat will be the deciding vote for Schumer's proposals. Concerns about the bench should be taken seriously, but don’t assume that CCM, Hassan, and Kelly can get away with any vote because of that or right ‘messaging.’

That's the problem. The volunteerist nature of the General Court (especially as a state rep) tends to stifle that. Sure, you're rich enough to lock down a primary seat, but developing the connections to fundraise takes time and effort. State Senator Sharon Carson considered a challenge to Shea-Porter way back in 2014, but it failed to get off the ground. The only people from the General Court to win were Marilinda Garcia (who had a strong national profile already as a millennial Hispanic Republican) and Steve Negron (who largely self-funded). The 2nd-in-command in the House couldn't even beat a Some Dude when he ran!

So instead of trying to find a diamond in the rough (like Bolduc appeared to be), you run and nominate a bunch of transplants like Corky Messner and Walt Havenstein, who soak up the airwaves and can basically buy the GOP nomination. You also have Matt Mowers, who is essentially a Trump acolyte.

Which really leads to the question of who Republicans have that can do that. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who has strong national connections on the level of Mowers is Al Baldasaro. There's no way in hell he gets elected.

[free my dawg]

Even Democrats are vulnerable to carpetbagging. Maura Sullivan didn't even set foot here before running for Congress! At least Messner/Havenstein/Brown had a vacation home and Mowers used to live in NH for work. 

And she still competed because she had extensive national connections. Not only did she lay the ground for a run in other districts early on (and had the second-best resume out of any rep running in 2018), but she's been friends with Seth Moulton since college. I wouldn't be surprised to see Democrats hitting the same levels of desperation if their bench thins out.

[free my dawg]

Sununu now has a republican trifecta, he isn't going to be able to maintain his popularity anymore because they are almost certainly going to push some hardline culture war bullsh**t like defunding planned parenthodo or something that will alienate the populace. Sununu will then have to choose between vetoing it and pissing of his base(loosing the primary) or not and having his popularity erode.

I don't think he's favoured.

The GOP doesn't have the margins in legislative to really push any culture war stuff.

They 100% do in the Executive Council. Gatsas, Kenney, and Wheeler all have voted not to in the past. I don't expect Stevens to vote to defund it, but the other 3 literally have a legislative record on the subject.

Sununu doesn't have a say in whether or not Planned Parenthood gets defunded or not, because the Executive Council can vote down the contract anyway.

[free my dawg]

Would Hassan be considered DOA at this point after voting against the $15 dollar minimum wage?

No. As much as I'd love everyone in my state to vote like me, the good people of NH don't vote like me.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/1380078212110237698?s=20

Damn $3 million raised and none of it's going to come from the restaurant owners she was simping for when she voted no on $15

[free my dawg]

Sununu's a strong candidate? Wow! Next you'll tell me SirWoodbury's too scared to leave the forum for a year!

[free my dawg]

This is a bizarre answer:

https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1395102001869037572?s=21

Yeah, he's in. Sununu is first and foremost a swamp creature and a GOP footsoldier. And if The Swamp wants him to run, he will run.

[free my dawg]

I'm still going to go bold and put this at Lean D. With Roe v. Wade in the spotlight his abortion record will come into full view.

[free my dawg]

I'm still going to go bold and put this at Lean D. With Roe v. Wade in the spotlight his abortion record will come into full view.

I think a lot of his hesitancy stems from concern that Roe would affect him much more than other R's. It is not an ideal state for the GOP if the Supreme Court really does overturn.

You'd be right - it does affect him. Sununu has already banned abortion, even in cases of rape/incest.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1440058902586933255?s=19

The drumbeat begins.

[free my dawg]

One of the more underdiscussed stories is Sununu's turn towards the anti-vaxxers. If you look deeply enough (see: Kevin Avard, Parkland) he's always embraced the conspiratorial right but the past month has been rough.

Sununu has been very quietly indistinguishable from Kristi Noem or Greg Abbott with regard to vaccines. He quietly signed a bill banning local governments and "government properties" from requiring vaccines. While Sununu is a standard conservative, the state legislature is among the most conservative in the country, and Sununu has essentially been a rubber stamp. This month there's been a deluge of headlines.

The state legislature is predictably anti-vax and has gone as far as to hold public rallies against Biden's vaccine mandate. This caused state representative William Marsh, a lifelong Republican, to leave the party. Speaker Sherman Packard outright supports the anti-vaccine movement.

Then came the Ken Weyler saga. The chairman of the Finance Commitee first draw ire for getting into an argument with our HHS Commissioner over the effectiveness of vaccines. When asked for clarification, he later cited a piece he heard on talk radio and the Internet as proof - all while citing Nicki Minaj's cousin.

The real sh*t came to a head when he sent an email full of anti-vax conspiracy theories to the legislature. The document says that the Catholic Church created the virus to control people and that Catholics are secret Satanists. It also says the vaccine causes "transhuman" babies with "pitch-black eyes", and that the vaccine has many unknown living organisms in it. Sununu demanded his resignation, but House leadrship initially defended Weyler, calling it "constituent information". Weyler has since stepped down as Fiscal Chair.

We have our own PA scandal with those not disclosing contact tracing. Representative Nicole Klein Knight has accused her colleague, Kevin Verville, of withholding his positive COVID test result from her. While he showed up to their committee meeting under the assumption of his negative rapid test, Knight says Verville never identified her as a close contact after the positive PCR. Her communications with the Speakers' office says the same.

Next, we have anti-vax protesters shutting down an Executive Council meeting.

[free my dawg]

Considering what he said in the past about his decision, the state legislature being out-of-step with his politics, and him "leaning one way", he's probably in.

The other shoe to drop is redistricting. Pappas is considering a run for Governor, and if they gerrymander his seat or move Manchester into NH-2 I could see him go for it.

[free my dawg]

To be fair, Sununu was probably in regardless of VA or NJ. Especially with his poll numbers.

[free my dawg]

He's always been leaning towards running

[free my dawg]

Also if Sununu runs for Senate, NH Dems should see the silver lining, bail on the Senate race completely and instead gun for NH GOV to take away the GOP's trifecta.

They are undedog against Ayott as well

Considering the NHGOP's gerrymander plan I wouldn't be surprised to see Pappas bail on NH-1 and go for Governor. That'd make it a toss-up

[free my dawg]

Hassan beat Ayotte by only 2,000 Votes in 2016 and should easily be the most vulnerable Democrat in 2022
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire

A bit of a false equivalency, as Ayotte was a legitimately popular incumbent at the time.

[free my dawg]

Also if Sununu runs for Senate, NH Dems should see the silver lining, bail on the Senate race completely and instead gun for NH GOV to take away the GOP's trifecta.

They are undedog against Ayott as well

Considering the NHGOP's gerrymander plan I wouldn't be surprised to see Pappas bail on NH-1 and go for Governor. That'd make it a toss-up

Lol Sununu or Ayotte will be Gov come 2023 Chris Pappas won't be abd since when does a 3 to 5 pt lead make you a shoe in, that's margin of error Sununu is leading Hassan bye, that's not a secure spread

Pappas has legitimate, proven geographic strength in the Manchester area, owning the most iconic restaurant in the city. Manchester has been very open to voting GOP, voting for Sununu in 2018, but Pappas won his primary in 2018 and the general in 2020 by running ahead in the Manchester area. He came close to matching Shaheen's numbers there.

[free my dawg]

Hassan beat Ayotte by only 2,000 Votes in 2016 and should easily be the most vulnerable Democrat in 2022
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire

A bit of a false equivalency, as Ayotte was a legitimately popular incumbent at the time.

Not true at all!
Per CNN 2016 Exit Polls Ayotte was viewed 47 % Favorable/50 % Unfavorable
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/new-hampshire/senate

So saying Ayotte was popular doesn't pass the smell test here!

Her approvals were fairly even throughout, as most other polls suggest, and was running even with Hassan on that front. But some Republicans didn't support her because she ran away from Trump.

[free my dawg]

What happened in Virginia must have emboldened him.

This is true, though I think the race would lean toward him even if McAuliffe won in VA. Now he has pretty much nothing to fear if he does make a bid. As for myself I'm on the fence about who to support if he runs. I usually oppose Republicans and Phil Scott and Charlie Baker are more my type, but Sununu doesn't seem too bad, though I wish he'd made NH enter the interstate climate agreement that Baker, Scott and Larry Hogan put their states in.

I'm a moderate Republican who voted for Biden too. But if you're at the point where your heart wants the Democrat to win most of the time, that should tell you that you're not a centrist Republican, you're a centrist Democrat. Sununu is very moderate. Any self-described moderate Republican should support him.

>implying he hasn't been a rubber stamp for our legislature
>implying our legislature isn't as right wing as texas

[free my dawg]

That first point might have some merit but honestly, you're either massively exaggerating or delusional if you believe the NH Legislature is nearly as bad as TX's, particularly given the bills the TX legislature's been unleashing recently. To be honest, I think I wouldn't be much farther to the left of the average Republican in NH. NH's Republicans (both voters and legislators) aren't that Trumpish, or at the very least not nearly as Trumpish as the Texan GOP. The TXGOP is one of the worst state Republican parties in some ways - at least if you look at in terms of the power and control they assert and the number of people they get to govern over. The NHGOP is much more moderate.

You're an idiot if you think the NHGOP is moderate. If you've been following my state you'd very clearly know Sununu is part of a dying breed.

The Freedom Caucus-types have effectively been in control of the GOP legislative agenda since 2010. It actually took Democrats making a deal with the normiecons in 2014 to keep the Freedom Caucus out of the Speaker's chair. There was a shadow war between the normies and the FC-types, and the NHGOP has chosen their side. The same party leadership is full of the same Freedom Caucus-types that dominated the legislature.

I won't get into much of it this year, but the NH legislature has arguably been the most anti-vaccine in the country. We're also not talking about the abortion ban, which, aside from the term length, is one of the strictest in the country. I'd argue that the state hasn't gone as far as Texas because of what few normiecons are left. Even Sununu has to make some concessions to not bleed support to Bolduc.

Again - I would very highly recommend not condescending to people unless you come correct. Especially not to people who, you know, live in the state you're talking about.

[free my dawg]

That first point might have some merit but honestly, you're either massively exaggerating or delusional if you believe the NH Legislature is nearly as bad as TX's, particularly given the bills the TX legislature's been unleashing recently. To be honest, I think I wouldn't be much farther to the left of the average Republican in NH. NH's Republicans (both voters and legislators) aren't that Trumpish, or at the very least not nearly as Trumpish as the Texan GOP. The TXGOP is one of the worst state Republican parties in some ways - at least if you look at in terms of the power and control they assert and the number of people they get to govern over. The NHGOP is much more moderate.

You're an idiot if you think the NHGOP is moderate. If you've been following my state you'd very clearly know Sununu is part of a dying breed.

The Freedom Caucus-types have effectively been in control of the GOP legislative agenda since 2010. It actually took Democrats making a deal with the normiecons in 2014 to keep the Freedom Caucus out of the Speaker's chair. There was a shadow war between the normies and the FC-types, and the NHGOP has chosen their side. The same party leadership is full of the same Freedom Caucus-types that dominated the legislature.

I won't get into much of it this year, but the NH legislature has arguably been the most anti-vaccine in the country. We're also not talking about the abortion ban, which, aside from the term length, is one of the strictest in the country. I'd argue that the state hasn't gone as far as Texas because of what few normiecons are left. Even Sununu has to make some concessions to not bleed support to Bolduc.

Again - I would very highly recommend not condescending to people unless you come correct. Especially not to people who, you know, [i]live in the state you're talking about[/i].

NSV 2.0?

Yes, this is a fallacy

Let's see... I have clear cited evidence, CentristRepublican has a gut feeling.

I've also been pretty measured (if a bit optimistic) on my NH-Sen takes. I'll freely admit I can get a bit hackish when talking about my state - take a look at my state senate ratings and you can pretty easily tell. Maybe saying this was Tilt D was an overstatement.

That being said, it's hard to be a hack for a candidate you refuse to support.

[free my dawg]

Protest vote ahoy!

[free my dawg]

Lean D as for now. Wake me up when we know Republican nominee. In few cases I can see this race becoming Likely D even bordering on Safe D

So far the front-runners are a lunatic, a carpetbagger, and a disgraced ex-Congressman.

The only A-list candidate that could make this competitive is Frank Edelblut.