Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are now almost back above water despite all of the negative news covfefe!

Could also be a small 9/11 rally around the flag bump in combination with the Afghanistan debacle fading away in the news.

The D's aren't out of the woods yet, the VA Gov race is definitely a Bellwether we haven't seen any polls since the R has been up by 2, the edge slightly to Ds due to VBM, but if D's lose that race it's certainly a 2014/Election at least in the H.  Cali is safe D

Rs are certainly poised to go after Hunter Biden if they take over H.
Pollsters give Rs a greater chance at taking over the H than S anyways

[Progressive Pessimist]

We are now almost back above water despite all of the negative news covfefe!

To quote TarHeelGentleman from a few pages back: "Inshallah!"

I wish I didn't care so much about a President's approval ratings, but the future of our country requires Biden to at least to be somewhat popular. He is all that stands between us and a right wing Armageddon.

[NotSoLucky]

We are now almost back above water despite all of the negative news covfefe!

To quote TarHeelGentleman from a few pages back: "Inshallah!"

I wish I didn't care so much about a President's approval ratings, but the future of our country requires Biden to at least to be somewhat popular. He is all that stands between us and a right wing Armageddon.

Approval has to be earned though. You can't expect people to just blindly support him just because "the alternative is worse". Yes, Biden is much better than a "right wing Armageddon", but honestly I and everyone else have every right to feel disappointed. Especially if he fails to deliver on HR1 or the PRO act.

If he can't deliver on the PRO Act or with infrastructure, his approval will sink among Blue Collar voters. And if he doesn't deliver on HR1 or John Lewis, then his approval will sink among urban Progressives. The Afghan pull out cost him a lot of the "never Trump" suburban republican support, and his implementation of a vaccine mandate cut into his already very low approval rating among Republican Trump supporters.

In other words, his 2024 prospects aren't looking good. The only thing that could help him rebound is if Trump ran in 2024, as Trump's 2016 run did give Obama a boost in his approval, but even then I don't think that would necessarily translate into a win :/

Nice to see Americans rally behind President Biden’s War on the Unvaccinateds.

I think this might be a but crazy, but I think it might be a better strategy if the government payed people to take the vaccine, or some other monetary incentive? I don't know if this has been tried statewide yet.

Those kinds of incentives have been tried at the state level. At some point, carrots can only do so much and you need to use a stick.

Fair enough, I guess. I do understand this sentiment, but I feel like it's really telling that Biden's willing to use the "stick" approach on the American people, but not with Manchin or Sinema. I think that says a lot about where his priorities are :/

I say this as a guy who is fully vaccinated, FYI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema and Manchin will sign onto the Stimulus deal but it's gonna be closer to 2T than 3.5 T.  Remember the Stimulus debate, last yr, Pelosi wanted 2K checks and 2.2T and she settled on deferring the  checks to the next yr, well this is gonna be alot similar

The heat is gonna be on the D's to produce a bill before the Election, and VR, that's why you see D's hammering down on VR

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Yang UBI payments called on Congress to enact it until COVID is OVER, not when there are factory jobs that are quota jobs and can be lost, easily

The checks nearly got Trump reelected and I assume that, whenever either party next has undivided control, they will find an excuse to send them out again. That won't happen for years, though.

In fact, I wonder if checks/UI might hurt Dems/Biden in 2022/2024. Economy WILL re-cover, but compared to helicopter moneys/UI 2020-2021, it'd feel kind of meh for some people, that is these set up higher expectation for economy/wage boosts.

I don’t imagine Biden’s problem will be his approval overall, so much as it will be the intensity of his disapproval and the lack of intensity in his support.

The people who like Joe Biden don’t love him, but the people who dislike Joe Biden seem to hate him. I’d be a little nervous to see what happens if the GOP nominates someone who is relatively inoffensive in 2024. That being said, I’m not sure such a Republican even exists these days, so who knows. Maybe Joe’s intense support will tick up when voters see who the alternative could be.

Yeah. Biden being slightly under water was expected, though, probably came unexpectedly fast. Biden lacking intense base was expected. But such intense disapproval was in my opinion fairly unexpected. If remotely true, it spells trouble for Dems 2022.

On the matter of 2024, a lot of people seems to still not realize how close it was EC-wise. Trump or whoever it will be, they won't need a miracle. They won't need a collapse of economy or what not. They just need about 50,000 people to switch their vote or 100,000 less enthusiastic Democrats to stay home in couple of swing states. I'm not predicting anything, just saying, that GOP, perhaps, doesn't need change much, if anything at all.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I see here people stating Biden is already re-covering. Perhaps, he is, but there is no data that proves that, unless you cherry-pick.

For instance, a (C)-rated CNN has been posted here, but an (A-)-rated Trafalgar hasn't. CNN old and is month-long, while Trafalgar is pretty fresh.



SEP 8-9, 2021
A- Trafalgar Group
1,086   LV   

44 (-3 compared to August 8-11)
54 (+6)


Both 538 and rcp shows Biden stabilizing at new level. You're staring at noise (most likely).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a neutral or slightly R leaning election Rs clinch the H and D's loses GA and or AZ depending on AZ Gov election goes and picks up WI and PA

The Generic ballot is 45/44, what happened to UBI man and his positive polls, time to change User names, there aren't anymore UBI

Time to carry yourself by the bootstraps

There hasn't been any polls on VA Gov races, I shudder to think,

[It’s so Joever]

Without HR1, all is lost. There was no point in voting in Biden if he wasn’t willing to take the step necessary to preserve liberal democracy. Maybe it was futile, maybe this era of prosperity was bound to end no matter what…it was unrealistic to expect the world to stay stagnant forever. Still, at least Biden could have preserved what remains, but instead he naively is watching it collapse just like Obama.

[wbrocks67]

Without HR1, all is lost. There was no point in voting in Biden if he wasn’t willing to take the step necessary to preserve liberal democracy. Maybe it was futile, maybe this era of prosperity was bound to end no matter what…it was unrealistic to expect the world to stay stagnant forever. Still, at least Biden could have preserved what remains, but instead he naively is watching it collapse just like Obama.

gurl it's literally only been 8 months

(also you do realize things need to pass the US Senate, right?)

[wbrocks67]

Biden 57/37 fav in NY per Siena

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

[Matty]

qtrash has biden at 42-50

underwater on every issue

but....+17 among college whites 56-39

underwater with trailer whites, 28-65

[Devils30]

qtrash has biden at 42-50

underwater on every issue

but....+17 among college whites 56-39

underwater with trailer whites, 28-65

And yet D +3 on Generic Ballot with undecideds skewing especially younger. There is definitely at the moment a Biden mild disapprove/D vote category.

[Matty]

qtrash has biden at 42-50

underwater on every issue

but....+17 among college whites 56-39

underwater with trailer whites, 28-65

And yet D +3 on Generic Ballot with undecideds skewing especially younger. There is definitely at the moment a Biden mild disapprove/D vote category.

My advice is to disregard qtrash entirely.

Their 2020 performance was shameful and they don't deserve credibility until they re-earn it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stop taking polls so seriously, Q needs to poll individual states not just Approvals

[Comrade Funk]

God get a grip and stop paying attention to this garbage. Both sides.

[wbrocks67]

It's like Q-pac tried to fix itself and just ran the opposite way. They also only had Biden 46/43 in Early August when he was +8-10 on average nationally.

[pbrower2a]

Biden 57/37 fav in NY per Siena

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

...and Donald Quisling Trump at 33-61.

Because this is a favorability poll I am not going to put it on the map.

[wbrocks67]

Data for Progress just released a bunch of new state polls. Old, from 8/20-8/27, but also probably the low water mark for Biden since it was directly in the midst of the Afghanistan media hysteria.

August 20-27

Favorability
Washington: 57/42 (+15)
Oregon: 56/43 (+13)
Colorado: 52/46 (+6)
Pennsylvania: 50/49 (+1)
Georgia: 49/49 (=)
Wisconsin: 48/50 (-2)
Arizona: 48/51 (-3)
New Hampshire: 49/52 (-3)
Michigan: 47/51 (-4)
North Carolina: 46/51 (-5)
Montana: 37/63 (-26)
West Virginia: 33/62 (-29)

Job approval
Washington: 55/42 (+13)
Oregon: 55/44 (+11)
Colorado: 52/47 (+5)
Pennsylvania: 50/50 (=)
Arizona: 49/50 (-1)
Gerogia: 48/50 (-2)
Michigan: 48/50 (-2)
New Hampshire: 49/51 (-2)
Wisconsin: 48/52 (-4)
North Carolina: 46/52 (-6)
Montana: 38/61 (-23)
West Virginia: 34/65 (-31)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/voters-in-key-states-support-the-build-back-better-agenda

[wbrocks67]

qtrash has biden at 42-50

underwater on every issue

but....+17 among college whites 56-39

underwater with trailer whites, 28-65

And yet D +3 on Generic Ballot with undecideds skewing especially younger. There is definitely at the moment a Biden mild disapprove/D vote category.

This is what I suspected.. there are a lot of D voters who are openly admitting they're not a fan of what's going on right now, but that doesn't mean they won't approve of Biden when he does something they like, and doesn't mean they're itching to vote R either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's 1 yr before the Election folks it's not Doomsday for D's Trump was polling 41% this time In 2018

[pbrower2a]

Data for Progress just released a bunch of new state polls. Old, from 8/20-8/27, but also probably the low water mark for Biden since it was directly in the midst of the Afghanistan media hysteria.

August 20-27

Favorability
Washington: 57/42 (+15)
Oregon: 56/43 (+13)
Colorado: 52/46 (+6)
Pennsylvania: 50/49 (+1)
Georgia: 49/49 (=)
Wisconsin: 48/50 (-2)
Arizona: 48/51 (-3)
New Hampshire: 49/52 (-3)
Michigan: 47/51 (-4)
North Carolina: 46/51 (-5)
Montana: 37/63 (-26)
West Virginia: 33/62 (-29)

Job approval
Washington: 55/42 (+13)
Oregon: 55/44 (+11)
Colorado: 52/47 (+5)
Pennsylvania: 50/50 (=)
Arizona: 49/50 (-1)
Georgia: 48/50 (-2)
Michigan: 48/50 (-2)
New Hampshire: 49/51 (-2)
Wisconsin: 48/52 (-4)
North Carolina: 46/52 (-6)
Montana: 38/61 (-23)
West Virginia: 34/65 (-31)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/voters-in-key-states-support-the-build-back-better-agenda

Close to the low point, and I suggest that we keep this in mind as other polls come in. No way is Biden up by a thread in Texas!

Americans will likely have their focus on infrastructure, voting rights, abortion rights -- and COVID-19.   

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

white: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The new normal...

Do you honestly believe that this will be the map a yr from now no, stop acting like it's 2024 and it's not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once D's sweep 2021 it will prove the prognosticators wrong, when we win VA

[Lief 🗽]

Quinnipiac should have had their polling license officially revoked after 2020. It's shocking that they're still allowed to publish these.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac should have had their polling license officially revoked after 2020. It's shocking that they're still allowed to publish these.

When you find the authority that issues polling licenses, do let us know.