Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Devils30]

Yeah it looks after Manchin blocking HR 1 Rs can Redistricted FL and TX any way they want and Crist isn't beating DeSantis he is down by 10

As D's will replicate the 303 blue wall in Sen as they barely fight to hold onto NH, AZ, NV and GA and win WI and PA and can win it back when Covid Eradicated in 2024/26

278 EC Govs

Rs can redistrict TX but a lot of what they need to do involves holding their own seats, not grabbing more than the 2 new ones. If they tried a 29-9 map they could lose 12 seats in a bad GOP President midterm and maybe even 4-6 without a GOP President.

[Devils30]

Another poll showing an R wave, Terry McAuliffe up by only 2, I am fine with an R Congress, l because Biden hasn't kept his campaign promises, the Covid has gotten better but it hasn't been Eradicated, DOJ hasn't Prosecuted Trump and he isnt going after Student Loan Debt, if it's truly a red wave, we should be prepared as I might vote to recall Newsom as I didn't get my 600.oo

I am not saying Rs are gonna take over but I am prepared for an R takeover

It's a f**** Youngkin internal poll!

[Devils30]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/06/22/iowa-poll-joe-biden-approval-rating-kamala-harris-covid-immigration/7736797002/

Biden's numbers about the same in Iowa as he got in the election. Dems will be better investing in Alaska in the future instead of winning IA back.

[Devils30]

Gallup has 56-42

https://news.gallup.com/poll/351521/job-approval-biden-steady-congress-down.aspx

including +13 among Indies

The change in Biden's approval since March 1 is mostly noise that is a point or two in either direction. He does seem to be weak with WWC, strong with white college and gaining among Hispanics which makes me think the early 2024 path is Hillary's 232 + MI/AZ/GA.

[Devils30]

The dip over the past week looks like noise, Biden has been in this +9-14+ range since around March 1.

[Devils30]

50/42 in ABC/WashPo. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/june-27-30-2021-washington-post-abc-news-poll/9f67b281-b289-4e67-a9e1-9515018d7e90/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2

Crosstabs suggest almost nothing has changed since last fall.

[Devils30]

I think people are discounting the idea Biden's approval could be 52/46 in 2022 and Ds could keep House with a D+6 generic ballot. I don't expect much space between Biden's net approval and the generic congressional vote at all.

[Devils30]

The Redistricting is gonna depend on Cali, TX and FL

IA, KS, OH are gone and we don't know how many seats in NY and IL

But yeah if Cali Redistrict 6 Rs out of it, they can make up for TX and FL which could be 3 loss D's each

Trump won 8 TX districts with under 50%, Rs are going to use this to shore up current members but I don't expect them to reduce any of the 13 Ds, they'll go for 25-13.

[Devils30]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/07/04/gov-abbott-rebounds-against-possible-challenger-matthew-mcconaughey-has-razor-thin-edge-over-actor/

Biden at 47/42 in TX per Dallas Morning News poll.

[Devils30]

I'm not sure anything since around March 15th in polling is more than statistical noise. Biden moves from like +7 to +14.

[Devils30]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-pandemic-approval-covid-19-opinion-poll/

Biden at 58/42 per CBS.

[Devils30]

You can't do this and not include NY, IL, MD which will give the Dems 6 or so back plus possible NM-2.

[Devils30]

We're at Biden +4-7, just use the 2020 election as a baseline and add/subtract a point or 2 in most places. I don't think many have changed their opinions either way even if some college- educated Rs disapproved of the post-election show.

I'm not sure a 52/47 approval in 2022 wouldn't just have a D+5 result...that's how polarized we seem to be these days.

[Devils30]

We need to see the actual numbers in Virginia races this November (and NJ to a lesser extent). The actual HoD results in 2017 suggested a Democratic romp despite Dems thinking Northam was gonna blow it the day before. In 2009 VA was also a good barometer of 2010. Actual election results should be weighted well above polls.

[Devils30]

A lot of pollsters are trying new things to capture Trump supporters in places they missed in 2020. While they might get it right, using a 2010-14 style electorate could also backfire the other way. It will help to get some real election results in VA and NJ soon.

[Devils30]

Pollsters like Rassy try to get low Approvals use phone polling instead of internet polling that's why Ds will win as long as there is VBM due to Early voting no matter how matter Voter Suppression laws Rs make



Newsom and soon TMac will lead all the VBM and Early vote

That's why we can win FL and OH too DeSantis, Rubio, and either Mandel or Vance look weak

I was an Election judge I know about Provisions Ballots too before the Pandemic when they locked us out of Judges and select the Judges now, everyone can't be a judge and collect 150 til further notice

NH and NV polling are off, with VBM they D's will win

Many people no longer have landlines. Those who still do tend to be on the Right side of the political spectrum.  Pollsters need recognize demographics.

If you wonder why the pollsters were wrong in 2020... it's because nobody knew how COVID-19 messed up the polling. 

I wonder if some anti-Trump Dems aren't picking up the phone as much anymore and polling is more accurate again. That said, Biden needs to get his approval back up for Dems to have any shot in 22.

[Devils30]

The poll in question is certainly outlier, but I wouldn't be surprised if Biden has lost some support among Dems. That's mainly because not much has been accomplished through legislation since March. Both infrastructure bills aren't enacted yet, neither is a public option, tax reform, immigration, voting rights etc. Biden campaigned on being a pragmatist whose long experience and ties on the Hill can get stuff done. Now there are Sinema and Manchin, on whom neither Biden nor Schumer have much leverage and a GOP that is unwilling to do anything. It's annoying and frustrating. For sure not Biden's fault, but the prez always gets the blame (or credit) for what goes right or wrong.

Well I also think, like we're seeing with the 18-29 #s as well - is that Democrats are much more open to criticizing their party/leaders. Trump sycophants would always tell pollsters they approved of him no matter what.

Democrats meanwhile are more open to hitting that 'somewhat approve' instead of strongly, or even hitting disapprove, even if they always vote blue or vote Democrat IMO.

That's what I think is likely going on with the 18-29 year olds. Do I think only 32% actually "approve"? No... but I think there's probably a lot who are just frustrated with what's going on (even if it's not Biden's fault, which most of it isn't), but will stay say they 'disapprove', even if they know they'll still be voting for a Dem vs. Rep.

If that makes sense.

Some of the younger activist types also want to save the world, think people like Warren, Buttigieg "have a plan" in comparison to Biden. Of course they won't vote R anyway but it does seem like Biden's drop has been bigger among younger people.

[Devils30]

qtrash has biden at 42-50

underwater on every issue

but....+17 among college whites 56-39

underwater with trailer whites, 28-65

And yet D +3 on Generic Ballot with undecideds skewing especially younger. There is definitely at the moment a Biden mild disapprove/D vote category.

[Devils30]

The California results make it pretty clear that Biden's approval slide is illusory. He got dinged by people who consume mainstream news and were influenced by the endless parade of pro-forever war pundits criticizing Biden. A majority of this big beautiful country continues to support both the President's economic and foreign policy agenda. But mostly they support how seriously the President takes COVID-19.

Eh, as slightly comforted as I am by the recall results, it is still California we're talking about here. Virginia might be a wee bit more representational example when it comes to analyzing this year's major statewide elections.

If Orange is D +5 the GOP is not coming close enough in NoVA, Richmond and tidewater suburbs to keep it terribly close.

[Devils30]

Fox News; (9/12-9/15)

Approve; 50% (-3)
Disapprove; 49% (+3)

Given the CA result, this seems realistic. Biden being even nationally lines up with what we're seeing. Stuff like -12 in TX and even the 46/51 in Virginia seem like outliers, even if Biden was down 2-3 nationally.

Yep, Biden at +26 instead of +19 in CA is more consistent with the results.

[Devils30]

Virginia: PPP, Sep. 17-18, 875 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 46

In the governor's race, McAuliffe (D) leads Youngkin (R) 45-42.

Not a big crossover from 2020 with Youngkin not really winning over Biden supporters. I think this will be over 6% in the end.

[Devils30]

It would be crazy if 24 and 28 had a situation where Democrats won because of a rebalance in efficiency caused by states like Ohio, Iowa, maybe Florida, and perhaps a couple of others giving Republicans the same type of margins they get in the Deep South. Let’s see say this takes what would of been a 4% victory for the Democrats and turns it into a 1% victory for them as they limp across the finish line in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and comfortably win Minnesota, New Hampshire and perhaps Arizona and Georgia by 2%.

People are underestimating how many competitive states we might have over the next decade. It is quite a few. You can make a case for all of AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, NH, ME, MN, NC, TX, FL, GA to be competitive in a given election. The trends of urban Hispanics in the sunbelt might be different than their rural counterparts, Rs could gain even more in the rural midwest, pushing WI, PA to clearly lean R. Dems could benefit from demographics pushing GA out of reach and making NC a tipping point state rather than right leaning. We really just don't know what will happen.

[Devils30]

The -31 for Biden in Iowa Selzer is too extreme to be believed, but Selzer is absolutely a poll that you should give credence. If Biden's at -31 in Iowa, or anything close to it, say -25, then he's probably quite unpopular in the Midwest, not around even like national polls would suggest. Midwest polling has been spectacularly bad since 2016, but Selzer has been a lone positive. It's frankly the only poll in the Midwest that can be trusted, and one -31 poll in Iowa tells us way more about Wisconsin then 10 polls of Wisconsin itself from other pollsters.

People are underrating the possibility of Ds keeping the House because of strong suburban showings in a D+2 type of year while they potentially lose PA, WI and maybe one like NH. D House/R senate doesn't seem too likely but it is definitely possible and even another 50-50 Senate guarantees an R takeover in 2024.

[Devils30]

Pew

Approve 44 (-11)
Disapprove 53 (+10)

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/09/23/biden-loses-ground-with-the-public-on-issues-personal-traits-and-job-approval/

Definitely some slippage with Dem base voters as well. It's tricky seeing who could defect to the GOP and who won't.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1441848227087753218

These people don't vote in midterms.