Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[wbrocks67]

Will be interesting to see how far Biden's favs/approval go around Inauguration. Given that for some reason, many Americans always *wanted* to give Trump a chance even when he didn't deserve it - wonder if they will do the same for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Will be interesting to see how far Biden's favs/approval go around Inauguration. Given that for some reason, many Americans always *wanted* to give Trump a chance even when he didn't deserve it - wonder if they will do the same for Biden.

Weird post.

Trump had no honeymoon period, and was consistently in mid-40s in RV polling, higher 40s in LV polling for most of his presidency (low 40s in RV at a couple of brief points), so it was incredibly stable. Was at 45% approval in exit polling during midterms and finished at 50% approval in exit polling this November.





You are entitled to your own opinions, but you are not entitled to your own facts.

Nothing I said was wrong. Trump always got a bounce over things that he shouldn't have - aka just acting like a somewhat competent person. My point is that for whatever sick and twisted reason, many Americans did *NOT* approve but really *WANTED* to. Like they were looking for any reason to give him the benefit of the doubt. Hence, the reprehensible way he has handled the past 4 years and how he had a 50% approval rating on Election Day.

[wbrocks67]

I doubt Biden approval ratings will feel very important especially as he is unlikely to seek a second term.

The electoral map has been remarkably stable since 2000. At this point I expect a fairly close election. If Joe Biden is a one-term President, then he simply passes the baton with an endorsement.

He knows why he chose Kamala Harris to be VP. It was not to solidify the vote in California to pick up a shaky state. African-Americans were going to vote strongly D in 2020. It is not to reward someone as for "long and faithful service to the Democratic Party". She is an ex-DA, and she knows law... oh, does she know law. After Trump that is precious and will be for at least twelve years (hint, hint!) I doubt that she has any skeletons in her closet.

     

Yeah, this is what surprised me the most - most of what is in Harris's history/record has already been litigated (the truancy stuff, Willie Brown "scandal", etc.) - it doesn't appear there's anything major left considering the GOP either couldn't find anything to hit her on this year, or it wasn't good enough to care

[wbrocks67]

Nothing I said was wrong.

Dude, almost everything you said in the last 6 months was wrong.

you seem really obsessed with my posts

[wbrocks67]

Biden fav: 59/39 (+20)
Harris fav: 54/42 (+12)

Biden approval on transition: 65/26 (+39)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-two-thirds-of-voters-feel-hopeful

[wbrocks67]

Yep, also in that Gallup poll - 65% approve of Biden transition so far. Exact same # as Fox Poll.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/328106/public-mood-sours-satisfied-approve-trump.aspx

[wbrocks67]

Can we just point out that Biden's approval ratings from a historical perspective aren't actually that great?

Obama entered office with a 67% approval rating (his first one on Gallup).

Approval ratings usually have a strong correlation with midterm performance and various special elections so you'd think if Biden is 45% or less the Republicans will be solid favorites for the house and have a good shot at the senate.

Polling on Biden has been all over the place depending though. We got multiple polls from Fox and I think 1 or 2 other outfits that had his transition approval at 65% a few weeks ago. I mean, hell the NPR one has like nearly 20% undecided.

Also, like others have said, things are even more polarized now.

[wbrocks67]

These state numbers are suspicious. If true, it would be pretty bad at the beginning of a presidency. Biden underwater in states he easily carried? Color me skeptical.

Yeah, Civiqs has had great #s with H2H races and approval, but for some reason their favorability ratings have always been jacked up, especially for Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

It is not surprising to me that NBC and USA Today/Suffolk both still have Trumps best #s, even when he's completely flailing right now. They've had better #s for him his entire presidency than most for whatever reason.

Also, force people to pick one or the other. Pollsters coming out with 48/37 or 46/29's are ridiculous. You either approve or disapprove. Make them pick one.

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities:

Jill Biden 58/28 (+30)
Joe Biden 59/38 (+21)
Kamala Harris 51/39 (+12)

Biden approval on transition: 66%

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/politics/cnn-poll-biden-favorability/index.html

[wbrocks67]

GALLUP

Kamala Harris fav: 53/36 (+17)
Joe Biden fav: 57/41 (+16)

Biden transitional approval: 68/31 (+37)

Both get a bump, especially Harris. Her last Gallup favorability was 45/43 (+2) in October 2020 and Biden’s was 55/41 (+14) in November.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/328640/biden-transition-approval-remains-high.aspx

[wbrocks67]

Anyone know when we will get some approval ratings? I’m getting impatient

I'd expect the weekly trackers (YouGov/Economist and Ipsos Core Political Data) to shift to Biden immediately.

Watch YouGov has like 48-27 or something.

[wbrocks67]

The same polls which had Biden winning Texas...

This is a really bad comparison first of all, but even that nonwithstanding, polls nailed Biden's final margin nationally, so approval polls are likely probably good for him. Polls consistently underestimated Trump when he was on the ballot. When Trump is nowhere to be found, they've been much more reliable.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult:

Joe Biden job approval: 56/34 (+22)

Joe Biden favorability: 58/38 (+20) …. was +13 pre-election
Kamala Harris favorability: 52/40 (+12) … was +7 pre-election

https://morningconsult.com/2021/01/25/morning-consult-political-intelligence-biden-job-approval-polling/

[wbrocks67]

Pleasantly surprised with the numbers so far. Have to wonder if the GOP currently playing ball and allowing Biden's nominees to go through without any major opposition is helping him, by reinforcing the message that he is able to restore normality and bipartisanship in the Congress.

Honestly, to most people in real life, the past couple weeks of the Biden admin have been very quiet. To be frank, the only people making any hub bub negatively about it are the media who are coming up with storylines that aren't even in reality

[wbrocks67]

Again, Marist couldn't push people? Their last poll was like 46/29 so I guess this a slight step up but still. My god

[wbrocks67]

Democrats (14%) gave more support in early 2017 of Trump than Republicans (11%) are this month to Biden. Amazing.

[wbrocks67]

Biden at 62% in CNBC survey

https://twitter.com/OpinionToday/status/1360876746233368582

[wbrocks67]

WOW, Morning Consult/POLITICO has him at 62/33 this week. Nearly +30.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177-a857-d644-a377-eedf501c0000

Despite what the pundit class is saying, people are liking what they're seeing so far.

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 17-18, 1005 adults

Approve 56 (-1)
Disapprove 36 (+1)

but people in the ICE thread are saying Biden is the worst president of all time b/c of one thing though. which is right??

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult

President Biden approval: 57/37 (+20)

Presiden’t Biden’s approval on…
Coronavirus: 60/30 (+30)
The environment: 53/29 (+24)
Protecting Medicare and Social Security: 50/27 (+23)
Climate change: 52/30 (+22)
Health care: 52/31 (+21)
Education: 49/30 (+19)
Voting rights: 47/29 (+18)
Energy: 49/33 (+16)
The economy: 52/37 (+15)
National security: 48/34 (+14)
Jobs: 49/35 (+14)
Foreign policy: 45/35 (+10)
Immigration: 45/40 (+5)
Gun policy: 37/39 (-2)

$1.9T COVID relief bill support: 77/18 (+59)

Joe Biden fav: 57/39 (+18)
Kamala Harris fav: 51/39 (+12)
Mike Pence fav: 40/48 (-8)
Donald Trump fav: 39/57 (-18)

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000177-f5de-d750-a77f-f5ffd9750000

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth
February 25-March 1
802 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Changes with January 2021

Approve 51% (-3)
Disapprove 42% (+12)
No opinion 8% (-8)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_030321.pdf/

Hmm, this is not really in line with what we're seeing elsewhere (even the 538 tracker average is closer to +16/17), but could be something under the hood, since the Right track/wrong track has gone from 42/51 in Jan to 34/61 now which seems odd given the good COVID vaccine news recently

[wbrocks67]

AP/NORC
overall job approval: 60/40 (+20)
COVID-19 job approval: 70/29 (+41)
Economy job approval: 55/44 (+11)

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-ap-top-news-coronavirus-pandemic-only-on-ap-honeymoons-d365bff571c24f9d3575bcbd051780aa


REUTERS/IPSOS
overall job approval: 58/35 (+23)

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-03/2021_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_presidential_approval_tracker_03_04_2021.pdf

America loves Joe!

[wbrocks67]

That same CBS News poll also had Biden's overall job approval at 60/40.

[wbrocks67]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely