Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1438518212006612992

Americans are divided over whether Biden seriously mishandled the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan (48%) or if he did the best he could in a bad situation (49%). At the same time, only 29% believe the current Afghan situation would have been better if the U.S. had postponed the withdrawal deadline until later in the year. Most Americans (62%) say the situation there would be the same no matter when we withdrew. Among those who feel Biden mishandled the situation, 47% say it would have been better if the U.S. pushed back its deadline while 42% say the situation would have been the same regardless.

Two-thirds of Americans (66%) approve of the decision to withdraw the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. Just 27% disapprove. Approval for this policy decision, regardless of how the actual pullout was handled, comes from about 3 in 4 Democrats (76%) and independents (72%) but just under half of Republicans (47%).

46 (-2)
46 (+2)

RV
47 (-2)
46 (+2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not even Patrick Murray can sugar coat this calamity.

We won Cali with the same margin as we did in 202o, if Biden so low it would have been like 51/45 No on recall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We won Cali with the same margin as we did in 202o, if Biden so 🦋 w it would have been like 51/45 No on recall

Not all ballots are counted. Margin is expected to close by 4-6 points. It's a 285R map.

No it's not, it's a 304 map if Newsom got the same margin as he dod



Every Senate poll except for NV and N
AZ,WI, CO and PA had D's leading

aZ, CO, PA D's lead by 9 And WI D's lead 48/44

[MR DARK BRANDON]

We won Cali with the same margin as we did in 202o, if Biden so 🦋 w it would have been like 51/45 No on recall

Not all ballots are counted. Margin is expected to close by 4-6 points. It's a 285R map.

No it's not, it's a 304 map if Newsom got the same margin as he dod



Every Senate poll except for NV and N
AZ,WI, CO and PA had D's leading

aZ, CO, PA D's lead by 9 And WI D's lead 48/44

Maybe we could see something similar to the 304 map but I doubt that democrats are going to win Ohio

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We won Cali with the same margin as we did in 202o, if Biden so 🦋 w it would have been like 51/45 No on recall

Not all ballots are counted. Margin is expected to close by 4-6 points. It's a 285R map.

No it's not, it's a 304 map if Newsom got the same margin as he dod



Every Senate poll except for NV and N
AZ,WI, CO and PA had D's leading

aZ, CO, PA D's lead by 9 And WI D's lead 48/44

Maybe we could see something similar to the 304 map but I doubt that democrats are going to win Ohio

You keep saying that but Ryan and Demings and Crist are 3(4 pts down and we don't know what Biden Approvals are gonna be a yr  from now, Pittsburgh already endorsed Ryan


Biden won't be in the mid 40s once he get Debt Ceiling increase and 2.9T and Infrastructure enacted those are polls now

I already donate 6.00 a mnth to Rya
We have won OH before, it's not Alabama, Biden was on the same ballot as Obama in 2008/2012

If a Blk man can win it Biden can


We don't have the debates, DeSantis came back from 6 pts down with Guilliam in 2018

OH, IA, NC, FL are Statehood states bypass the Filibuster were won before

Brown has won every race, if we don't want to lose Brown, Ryan better win

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Biden's support was always predicated on exactly two factors: not being Trump, and being a force of stability. He didn't have wildly supportive fans but there were a lot of people tired of the 24/7 Trump newscycle and wanted a return to normal life.

For the first few months it seemed like he was doing that, and the media (excluding FOX etc) refused to cover anything that made him look bad. So as lockdowns ended and vaccines rolled out it seemed like life was returning to normal.

Afghanistan might not be directly important to most people but it broke the illusion. The media was always more loyal to their defense contractor advertisers than to Biden so they attacked him relentlessly, and the actual execution was so clearly inept that they had a point. For two weeks outlets from around the world showed top American officials and generals making themselves look like Baghdad Bob, constantly making claims and predictions that were disproven weeks or even days later. The end result was to seriously discredit the "experts" around Biden, and when the quality of the people around him was such a big selling point it hurts more broadly.

COVID and the economy aren't great either because Biden's whole premise was that he'd make the former a thing of the past and the latter boom. Instead he's on the backfoot trying to pin COVID on Republicans and their governors while the economy is closer to stagflation than any kind of boom.

Every day that people are paying attention to the news, especially the further we get from the Trump years, the worse it is for Biden. If the news is boring then Biden can hold his support, if there's chaos in the news (even if Biden isn't necessarily responsible) then the factors in his favour, especially without a President Trump to motivate people to turn out against, start to fall apart. "We have to stop Tucker Carlson" and "we have to stop Ron DeSantis" or even "we have to stop some random wacky congresswoman" are all far weaker causes to fight for since of course none of them are the President.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The California results make it pretty clear that Biden's approval slide is illusory. He got dinged by people who consume mainstream news and were influenced by the endless parade of pro-forever war pundits criticizing Biden. A majority of this big beautiful country continues to support both the President's economic and foreign policy agenda. But mostly they support how seriously the President takes COVID-19.

Eh, as slightly comforted as I am by the recall results, it is still California we're talking about here. Virginia might be a wee bit more representational example when it comes to analyzing this year's major statewide elections.

If Orange is D +5 the GOP is not coming close enough in NoVA, Richmond and tidewater suburbs to keep it terribly close.

True, but I am not personally expecting a close race in Virginia, another safe D state, either. If Michigan or Wisconsin had an election this year maybe I'd feel optimistic about Biden having consistent positive approval ratings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Rs know exactly what Bidens Approvals are gonna be in a yr, lol, once the Bills pass infrastructure and Reconciliation, they will because if Pelosi needs to she will combine them with the Debt Ceiling, you can't default on debt, because you can't have a pernament Govt shutdown, and SSA checks will be delayed, Biden Approvals will improve

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, Sep. 9-13, 802 adults including 747 RVs (change from July)

Adults:

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 46 (+2)

RV:

Approve 47 (-2)
Disapprove 46 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 15-16, 1005 adults

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+4)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Lol trash

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trash it T Mac leads in VA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a theory why Rs are still trailing in Gov polls, they are obstructing VR, insurrection and the Debt Ceiling

Boehner tried that in 2011 and it cost Romney the WH, as R Congressional Approvals are abysmal

[Hollywood]

I have a theory why Rs are still trailing in Gov polls, they are obstructing VR, insurrection and the Debt Ceiling

Boehner tried that in 2011 and it cost Romney the WH, as R Congressional Approvals are abysmal

Polls indicate that people aren't interested in VR and the Debt Ceiling.  I imagine some people care about the riot in Washington D.C., but the most important issues on the minds of voters are Coronavirus, Economy, Employment, and Immigration.  Handling of the coronavirus is probably the most significant issue that is directly related to Gubernatorial office. 

The main reason Republicans aren't doing well in these Gubernatorial races is due to the fact that they aren't competing in many of the Blue areas.  In a state like Virginia, they don't even try to compete for some of the Delegate seats. 

Romney lost cause Obama was a popular President that straddled the line between different factions of his own party.  He worked with the establishment coalition in D.C., and came through on some liberal issues.  He was likable.  Romney wasn't that likable.  He was your prototypical establishment Neocon and corporate elite that kept repeating the same BS Republican talking points.  He also ran a bad campaign that appealed to the wrong votes. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters overwhelmingly want another 1400 checks and Ro Khanna, Bernie and Warren already said they were open to it


But, Tester, Manchin and Sinema said there are 8M unemployed and 11M job openings and we're gonna derail another UBI or 300 Unemployment extension and SSA people are getting a 6% increase on their checks in 2022


 That's why Biden was at 59% when 1400 checks were passed in March that's why also Biden is at 45%

That's why I won't donate, I will root for D's but no way will I will donate to them until 2024

They also said during the Cares Act SSA people were gonna get a 200 extension and never got one

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 15-16, 1005 adults

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+4)

Isn't this one not prone to wild swings? Though I expect it to pull a YouGov and bounce back next week.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do You Gov polls and voters are alot pessimistic but Biden isn't underwater in Approvals it's more like 50/45%, the Exact Approvals he had on Election night that's why we lead in 304 blue wall and won Cali and will win VA

It's a 304 map not a 268 or ,375 map

Because if Biden was underwater T Mac would be losing and Cali recall would have been alot closer 51/45%

Biden as I said was at 59% when 1400 checks, but UBI payments have been cancelled

And 3.5T is on Hold and infrastructure until Debt ceiling is increased

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's can win NC, FL or OH, but, it's not good to over donate to wave insurance candidates because as we learned from 2020 polls can be misleading, VlBiden was leading on the final weekend of polling on WI poll in OH

If you donate 100 or less fine, but donating above that, you should always be mindful that UBI checks lifted everyone out of poverty, we don't know what to expect next Nov, when Congress won't lift the debt ceiling and it's all Simema and Manchin fault, obviously, they told party leaders they won't vote for a Debt Ceiling increase on Reconciliation otherwise Pelosi would have put it in the Bill and avoid default


There won't be any more spending bills passed Yellen said until debt ceiling is increased

The Govt said it will still pay SSA during default though

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 15-16, 1005 adults

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+4)

Isn't this one not prone to wild swings? Though I expect it to pull a YouGov and bounce back next week.

Yes, it can be fairly bouncy.

[pbrower2a]

Lol trash

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 15-16, 1005 adults

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+4)

All polls, especially those involving the consequences of an offensive but (for most Americans) a transitory event, go obsolete.  Just watch the next ones. It's thirteen and a half months before the midterm and over three years until the 2024 election. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think there's an outside chance he can still recover. Some of the doomers are too pessimistic.

Yes, we know. You've said this multiple times.

[pbrower2a]

I think there's an outside chance he can still recover. Some of the doomers are too pessimistic.

It's more than an outside chance. I've seen 20% edges disappear within a year. I remember analysis from early 2009 suggesting that Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) would be re-elected. She ended up losing by about 17%, indicating that the political reality had changed greatly between early 2009 and the 2010 general election.

We do not know whether Joe Biden will be the nominee and if he is, who will be the opponent. Thee are just too many (to put the pitiable words of the late Donald Rumsfeld to use) "known unknowns and unknown unknowns" for anyone to say anything definitive about the 2024 election except its date.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Election is a yr away and Rs aren't gonna crack the 304 blue wall anyways, our want insurance seats are to keep the H, and Rs on newsnax and Fox news keep praising Proud Boys

Ryan and Demings and hopefully Kanderess candidate  Kunce instead of Beasley whom endorsed the Filibuster can win, OH and FL are tied

[BG-NY]

The Election is a yr away and Rs aren't gonna crack the 304 blue wall anyways, our want insurance seats are to keep the H, and Rs on newsnax and Fox news keep praising Proud Boys

Ryan and Demings and hopefully Kanderess candidate  Kunce instead of Beasley whom endorsed the Filibuster can win, OH and FL are tied

Why do you want Oh to go dem and GA to go GOP so badly? I don't understand. Did you prefer the coalitions from the 90s-00s to the present day? Keep in mind Bill Clinton also won GA and lost FL once.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ITS 14 MNTHS TIL THE ELECTION, THE RS HAVENT SOLIDIFIED ANYTHING YET, I BELIEVE IN WAVES

SINEMA AND MANCHIN BLOCKING FILIBUSTER REFORM, WE CANT GO ANOTHER ELECTION CYCLE ALLOWING THE RS to dictate their terms with sham Filibuster

53 votes plus the H gets us Statehood, the 2024 cycle is iffy for D's if we don't get wave insurance seats in the Senate

Do you think in 14 mnths or 1500 days till next Prez Election that Biden Approvals are gonna be stuck at 45%,. NOT, HE ISNT TRUMPIANS


304 map is our base, bits it's not the end all be all, OH, IA, NC and FL were won by Biden and Obama in 2008/12 not 1992/1996


Floor 304

Ceiling 413

Rs keep praising Proud Boys