Arizona megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MarkKau24266876/status/1598102275817607169

[MT Treasurer]

I will say that this race brilliantly illustrated the limits of both retroactive and non-retroactive assessments of a candidate's "quality" when done independently of the overall state/national environment. Katie Hobbs probably fits neither the stereotypical "weak" nor "strong" candidate image; rather, she’s precisely the type of good-enough-in-a-good-enough-year candidate who runs a scripted, consultant-driven, relatively minimalist but nonetheless cautious campaign, makes no glaring missteps even while not "exciting" anyone in particular, and then counts on her opponent to fumble the ball and external factors to do the rest.

If this had been a red wave election, she probably would have gone down in the history books as a "weak" candidate. Now that she won the lottery by facing not only an unpopular opponent/incompetent state party but also (and far more importantly) running in the best midterm year for the incumbent President's party since 1934, history has quickly been rewritten by many.

[Pericles]

Stacey Abrams accepted the election result without conceding. While she chose the wrong way to make the point, she was saying that the election was not completely fair but not that the vote count itself was rigged and that she did not actually lose. It was not exactly the same as what Republicans have been doing. They have no excuse for their actions-they are just doing the wrong thing because they want to and were always going to.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Stacey Abrams accepted the election result without conceding. While she chose the wrong way to make the point, she was saying that the election was not completely fair but not that the vote count itself was rigged and that she did not actually lose. It was not exactly the same as what Republicans have been doing. They have no excuse for their actions-they are just doing the wrong thing because they want to and were always going to.

This is what gets me so annoyed about Republicans argument. Even if there was voter fraud large enough to theoretically change the outcome, why does that by default mean you won? Shouldn't narrow R wins also be investigated by that logic.

I also liked the video on Instagram Kari Lake posted by the mom who was mad because her "indoctrinated college son" voted Democrat and hence his vote shouldn't count basically. I wonder what their relationship is like.

It's really just clear stupidity and it's sad how many folks fall for it.

[soundchaser]

It's a kind of strange cognitive dissonance: the only election that wasn't stolen is the election I won.

[wbrocks67]

I will say that this race brilliantly illustrated the limits of both retroactive and non-retroactive assessments of a candidate's "quality" when done independently of the overall state/national environment. Katie Hobbs probably fits neither the stereotypical "weak" nor "strong" candidate image; rather, she’s precisely the type of good-enough-in-a-good-enough-year candidate who runs a scripted, consultant-driven, relatively minimalist but nonetheless cautious campaign, makes no glaring missteps even while not "exciting" anyone in particular, and then counts on her opponent to fumble the ball and external factors to do the rest.

If this had been a red wave election, she probably would have gone down in the history books as a "weak" candidate. Now that she won the lottery by facing not only an unpopular opponent/incompetent state party but also (and far more importantly) running in the best midterm year for the incumbent President's party since 1934, history has quickly been rewritten by many.

It's amazing the revisionist history that is going on with Hobbs, but not incredibly surprising. At least 75% of the people in this thread were convinced she was the worst Dem candidate all cycle, basically.

Not really sure where "consultant-driven" fits into this, which seems like a pretty big slight to her. Hobbs just ran a competent low-key campaign that did what it needed to do. She campaigned (despite people saying she didn't), she ran more TV ads than Lake did, and she was a competent statewide elected official going into this. There was no reason people needed to be so insistent on how "bad" she was. She was fine. People got so caught up in the Lake of it all that they needed to make ridiculous comparisons between the two, assuming Lake was "winning" just because she was commanding media attention every day.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It's a kind of strange cognitive dissonance: the only election that wasn't stolen is the election I won.

It’s not so much cognitive dissonance as just authoritative

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/prbentz/status/1598392167911010304

[wbrocks67]

Something I think is interesting in hindsight is that Lake ran a pretty unconventional campaign by regular standards. I remember there was a POLITICO article I believe where it said something like she was her own campaign manager, and she also "didn't believe" in running TV ads. (she ran some, but probably only because she was forced to by the Arizona GOP)

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/prbentz/status/1598392167911010304

Im not sure I understand what this is supposed to mean.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/prbentz/status/1598392167911010304

Im not sure I understand what this is supposed to mean.

Higher rural turnout does not guarantee better results for the GOP.

[Ferguson97]

]https://twitter.com/prbentz/status/1598392167911010304

Im not sure I understand what this is supposed to mean.

GOP is in deep trouble if they're hitting these margins in rural counties and still losing. They need to make up ground in suburban areas or they're in deep trouble.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/prbentz/status/1598392167911010304

Im not sure I understand what this is supposed to mean.

Higher rural turnout does not guarantee better results for the GOP.

It also feels weird to lump all of the non-Maricopa/Pima counties together.

Pinal is best classified as exurban. Even if we also exclude it, there will be a naturally high Democratic floor in the rest of the state because of Native Americans, Hispanics and some white liberal touristy areas.

A lot of "rural" Arizona (and Nevada for that matter) is vast stretches of unpopulated desert. There aren't a lot of small towns full of Trumpy conservatives like there are in, say, Indiana or Ohio.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm assuming that Lake is full of sh!t here. Certification is usually pretty final...examples of elections that took so long to resolve (like FL 2000 and MN-SEN 2008) were actually examples of delayed certification, and that House race in North Carolina in 2018 was actually never certified. I don't know of the last time certifications has ever been reversed for any election, and it wouldn't surprise me if it's never occured in the 21st century.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1598208629421019139

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1598488490748301312

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm assuming that Lake is full of sh!t here. Certification is usually pretty final...examples of elections that took so long to resolve (like FL 2000 and MN-SEN 2008) were actually examples of delayed certification, and that House race in North Carolina in 2018 was actually never certified. I don't know of the last time certifications has ever been reversed for any election, and it wouldn't surprise me if it's never occured in the 21st century.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1598208629421019139

And a 500/300 vote margin is hella closer than 17,000, especially in the world of elections. 

[cg41386]

All of this nonsense should officially be over today.

Not counting the inevitable lawsuit(s) from Lake.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Results have been certified. Now time for Lake to file nonsensical lawsuits and get swatted down and she moans until Hobbs is sworn in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also: https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/judge-orders-sanctions-response-lake-finchem-election-suit-rcna60088

[GeorgiaModerate]

Results have been certified. Now time for Lake to file nonsensical lawsuits and get swatted down and she moans until Hobbs is sworn in.

You're an optimist.  I suspect Lake will keep it up even after Hobbs is sworn in.

[Bojack Horseman]

Could Hoffman and Engel actually win if Cochise county refuses to certify?

Yes.

I don't know why Hobbs is trying to force Cochise County to certify its results.

It's a win for Democrats if votes from Cochise County aren't counted.

She's probably trying to avoid anymore accusations of "rigging" the election in favor of her and the Democrats.

Democrats should call Hobbs and tell her to drop the lawsuit.

When Republicans are hanging themselves, don't intervene.

This is a trial run for election subversion in 2024. If Cochise County had actually succeeded then the GOP game plan would be to refuse to certify the results in Democratic strongholds like Wayne County, MI, Dane/Milwaukee Counties to flip those states to Trump regardless of how the state voted. This was an Armageddon scenario that not a lot of people took as seriously as they should have.

That said even though I plan to resume my tuning out of politics I can’t get enough of the Kari Lake reality show. I’m glad I don’t live in Arizona but I can’t say that her never-ending temper tantrum isn’t entertaining.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the AG recount is underway right now?

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm assuming that Lake is full of sh!t here. Certification is usually pretty final...examples of elections that took so long to resolve (like FL 2000 and MN-SEN 2008) were actually examples of delayed certification, and that House race in North Carolina in 2018 was actually never certified. I don't know of the last time certifications has ever been reversed for any election, and it wouldn't surprise me if it's never occured in the 21st century.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1598208629421019139

That's actually not true. In most states, you can't challenge until after certification.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm assuming that Lake is full of sh!t here. Certification is usually pretty final...examples of elections that took so long to resolve (like FL 2000 and MN-SEN 2008) were actually examples of delayed certification, and that House race in North Carolina in 2018 was actually never certified. I don't know of the last time certifications has ever been reversed for any election, and it wouldn't surprise me if it's never occured in the 21st century.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1598208629421019139

That's actually not true. In most states, you can't challenge until after certification.

Then in most states challenging (at least the way she intends to) is pretty much impossible because I don't know the last time a certified election was overturned. It had to be a LONG time ago (or very low profile.)

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm assuming that Lake is full of sh!t here. Certification is usually pretty final...examples of elections that took so long to resolve (like FL 2000 and MN-SEN 2008) were actually examples of delayed certification, and that House race in North Carolina in 2018 was actually never certified. I don't know of the last time certifications has ever been reversed for any election, and it wouldn't surprise me if it's never occured in the 21st century.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1598208629421019139

That's actually not true. In most states, you can't challenge until after certification.

Then in most states challenging (at least the way she intends to) is pretty much impossible because I don't know the last time a certified election was overturned. It had to be a LONG time ago (or very low profile.)

It's more a function of it being difficult to challenge an election,  rather than it making a difference whether it's certified or not.