Arizona megathread

[cg41386]

Finchem is up 5 points in the OH Predictive poll  . I imagine the Lake vs. Hobbs number is embargoed until tomorrow but it seems like non-federal GOP candidates are being given a benefit of the doubt that Masters isn't.

Awful! I guess this is a state Democrats need to write off. Let's be glad that Kelly at least looks favored to win. We're getting something out of this dystopian state at least.

Huh?

[cg41386]

D's haven't elected a D Gov in AZ since Janet Napolitano and she was Latina that's what's wrong with Hobbs she is facing a Trend in AZ that hasn't happened since 2011

She is Italian.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

  Kelly would really have to screw up to lose this race.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

As I said, I think Kelly has the advantage, and I think he will win, but it's not going to be a runaway landslide. Kelly won't win by more than a few percentage points. It is Arizona, and the state is highly polarized.

I agree with this take. I just can't really envision Masters having a chance, he's too extreme IMO.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

I still give the advantage to Kelly, but a Masters victory wouldn't surprise me.

Oh? Kelly is widely considered to be a great candidate, and Masters... not so much.

Doesn't matter if Kelly is a great Candidate. He too will be dragged down by Biden. The CNN/SSRS Poll had Biden at 41 % JA in the State and that Pollster is telling the Public Kelly will overperform Biden by 10 Points? Nope. Not gonna happen folks.

Democrats have a Problem with Biden.

Candidate quality matters, which is why Kelly is very likely to win. Biden's approval rating doesn't mean anything. If it did, then the GOP is going to have a clean sweep and win some surprise races. Yeah, not happening.

[cg41386]

Kari Lake was booted from Arizona Univision town hall audience before Hobbs took the stage

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/kari-lake-was-booted-arizona-town-hall-audience-hobbs-took-stage-rcna51347

sounds like a winning campaign to me!

Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, and it seems like she doesn't want to share the stage with her. Lake obviously sought to press the issue, but failed. This also explains why Hobbs didn't show up to the Prensa Arizona townhall that was discussed earlier in this thread.

I think Lake has a good chance of winning.

She does, as does Hobbs. I've gone as far to say AZ-GOV is Lean R, but it's more appropriate to adjudge it as a Tossup. Win or lose, Lake will run ahead of Masters by a decent margin. A split outcome between her and Kelly is very likely at this point.

Yeah that is the mostly likely outcome: a Lake - Kelly split. However Kelly really botched up the Debate against Masters and he underperformed his Polling in 2020 against washed-up McSally. Republicans are back in the Game in the Senate Race I think.

  Kelly would really have to screw up to lose this race.

Don't pay much attention to 2016 and others who are deluded enough to think the debate changed anything.

If you think Kelly will overperform Bidens Job Number by 10 Points you are living in Fantasyland. Kelly won by less than 100K Votes in 2020 against washed-up Martha McSally. If Kelly wins it will be 51-49, 50-48 or something like that.

I would put McSally in the same Position Charlie Crist is in FL this year.

I live in reality, where candidate quality matters, and can overcome a president's approval ratings. A good candidate can overcome this when the opposite party has nominated a bad candidate. 51-49 or 50-48 could happen if Masters manages to overperform.

Bidens Approval will matter as we get closer to E-Day. 1st Term Midterm Elections are always and have been for the last 3 Decades a Referendum on the Incumbent President and 2022 ain't going to change that.

His approval ratings have been better recently, and as for the bolded, explain 2002 and 2018 Senate.

[cg41386]

It’s going to an automatic recount that probably won’t change the results much.

[cg41386]

All of this nonsense should officially be over today.

Not counting the inevitable lawsuit(s) from Lake.

[cg41386]

https://snipboard.io/Aj0Yok.jpg

So is she just a grifter or did something happen that melted her brain between 2017 and 2020?

She claims she loved Reagan (even though she wasn't even a teen when he was first elected), she was a registered republican up until the Obama years, she donated to his campaign, then she became a Trumper. Something like that, anyway.