2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

OOF

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1328112815283052546?s=21

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1328200072987893762?s=20

He’s really going with the fairy strategy of “If you believe hard enough, it makes it real!” huh?

[DrScholl]

A memory care facility somewhere in Florida, 2027: Trump: "I WON THE ELECTION!"

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Wisconsin is not the tipping point state!  Or at least it is not the sole tipping point state.  If Trump won WI, AZ, and GA, he’d only be at 269 EV, as would Biden.  WI and PA are equally tipping points. 

(I realize most people believe Trump would win a House vote, but I don’t think we can assume that for for the purpose of historical calculations.)

[jimrtex]

This Logan Act stuff with the Biden transition the Republicans are trying to drum up is bs. Flynn was doing this behind everyone’s backs while Biden is publicly stating what he’s said in the calls and isn’t undermining foreign policy.

You misunderstand.

In the January 5, 2017 meeting, attended by both then-president Obama and then-vice-president Biden, the Logan Act was brought up. Some say it was Biden, others say they would have remembered if it was Biden. In any case actual lawyers realized that the Logan Act is unconstitutional and no one could be successfully prosecuted.

[philly09]

Biden is now 5,000 votes away from break ing Obama's 2008 record in Philly. Trump has broken W's 2004 record.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328196707574812673

[Left Wing]

This Logan Act stuff with the Biden transition the Republicans are trying to drum up is bs. Flynn was doing this behind everyone’s backs while Biden is publicly stating what he’s said in the calls and isn’t undermining foreign policy.

You misunderstand.

In the January 5, 2017 meeting, attended by both then-president Obama and then-vice-president Biden, the Logan Act was brought up. Some say it was Biden, others say they would have remembered if it was Biden. In any case actual lawyers realized that the Logan Act is unconstitutional and no one could be successfully prosecuted.

I'm referring to something different where recently Ted Cruz accused Biden of violating the Logan Act by calling world leaders after his victory.

[emailking]

Will the electoral college be able to meet in states with more than 10 electors and a Democratic governor (Washington, California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey)?

Yes.

Indoors. Haven't governors banned indoor gatherings of more than 10 people?

They just have to vote in the capital. They don't have to meet in the same room or even indoors.

[emailking]

Wisconsin is not the tipping point state!  Or at least it is not the sole tipping point state.  If Trump won WI, AZ, and GA, he’d only be at 269 EV, as would Biden.  WI and PA are equally tipping points.  

(I realize most people believe Trump would win a House vote, but I don’t think we can assume that for for the purpose of historical calculations.)

It depends how you define it I guess, since this election you hit a tie as you dial the PV % towards the loser.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

RIP Brian Carroll

[jimrtex]

You don't know that though. They apparently determined the batches couldn't be friendly enough for that to happen, or at least the chance was statistically insignificant based on the data they had.

You don't know this.

If they were that good, they could have come out and said that Biden will get between 49.3% and 49.5% of the vote, with a lead between 0.2% and 0.4%.

They didn't.

[emailking]

They said he'd win. That means they had a 99.5% confidence interval for [Biden - Trump] that did not include 0 or any negative values. Beyond that it's totally unknown what they had. It could have been a big interval or small interval (probably big but who knows). They don't have to estimate Biden's percentage of the vote at all, and the fact they didn't speaks nothing to their capability. When was the last time you saw a call with estimated final percentages attached? I can't think of a single one.

[jimrtex]

Will the electoral college be able to meet in states with more than 10 electors and a Democratic governor (Washington, California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey)?

Yes.

Indoors. Haven't governors banned indoor gatherings of more than 10 people?

They just have to vote in the capital. They don't have to meet in the same room or even indoors.

They don't have to meet in the capital. New York electors used to meet in Hudson, and Alaska electors have met in Anchorage.

But they do have to meet (12th Amendment).

It would set a bad example if electors were able to meet after citizens had to forgo Thanksgiving with family and a bunch of politicians met. States could simply delay having a meeting, and Congress could delay counting of the electoral votes, or simply base the election on results from states where electors did meet.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

[jimrtex]

They said he'd win. That means they had a 99.5% confidence interval for [Biden - Trump] that did not include 0 or any negative values. Beyond that it's totally unknown what they had. It could have been a big interval or small interval (probably big but who knows). They don't have to estimate Biden's percentage of the vote at all, and the fact they didn't speaks nothing to their capability. When was the last time you saw a call with estimated final percentages attached? I can't think of a single one.

If they were that good, they would also know that the other candidates would get 1.5% of the vote. It is idiotic to believe that they thought the other vote could end up 0.5% or 2.5% but no matter what Biden would eke out a win.

If you believe that they had a 99.5% confidence interval, then you acknowledge they were using statistical methods and not just going on a hunch. If so, their statisticians had a mean estimate and a standard deviation. It is unbelievably unlikely that it would be less than 0.1%.

[Left Wing]

Red Virginia but Blue Nevada

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bruh wtf is dis, Biden didnt win VA because of fraud LMAO

[emailking]

They don't have to meet in the capital. New York electors used to meet in Hudson, and Alaska electors have met in Anchorage.

Yeah I remembered that wrong, sorry.

If they were that good, they would also know that the other candidates would get 1.5% of the vote. It is idiotic to believe that they thought the other vote could end up 0.5% or 2.5% but no matter what Biden would eke out a win.

If you believe that they had a 99.5% confidence interval, then you acknowledge they were using statistical methods and not just going on a hunch. If so, their statisticians had a mean estimate and a standard deviation. It is unbelievably unlikely that it would be less than 0.1%.

You can literally make this argument about any call any news organization has ever made. "If they're that good they could have just estimated the percentage. Oh look, the result was closer than I was expecting based on the quick call, no way they could have gotten it so close. Why didn't they give me the percentages?"

Yes they were using statistical methods, unless they are outright liars, and I don't believe they are.

[DrScholl]

I guess it's 2012 again because this is the same thing that Dean Chambers did with his map after his predictions were wrong. But then again the fraud conspiracies were far more fringe back then so times have changed quite a bit.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Bruh wtf is dis, Biden didnt win VA because of fraud LMAO

I got it from the Predictit comments section. A lot of the MAGAs there are pissed off.

[Tender Branson]

Today:

Virginia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bruh wtf is dis, Biden didnt win VA because of fraud LMAO

I got it from the Predictit comments section. A lot of the MAGAs there are pissed off.

I LOLed at that map. Giving all but one of the competitive states to Trump? Hilarious. Red VA? Icing on the cake.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

OOF

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1328112815283052546?s=21

Nate Silver 1, Safari Hunter 0.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Wow, Brian Carroll's message must have really resonated with the people of Douglas County.

(snip)
RIP Brian Carroll

All these mentions of Brian Carroll is making me want to listen to Buckethead

[Annatar]

One thing I am curious about is all these big surveys like the CCES, nationscape etc showed all these obama trump voters unhappy with Trump and liking Biden, mainly non-college whites in the midwest yet there was no swing, in the driftless region there was no swing, Trump did better in many counties in north-eastern Iowa and south-western WI than the did in 2016.

So were all these surveys trash, 2 years of survey data about non-college whites who had voted Obama than Trump  but were disillusioned with Trump going back to Biden, all this data just seems fake now, none of it materialised.