2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

You're moving the goal posts. All Biden needed was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he flipped them.. Regardless of how you play with the math, Biden clearly won this election by more than Trump did in 2016.

That's not how it works...

Are you familiar with the concept of a tipping point?

Let me put it like this. Biden won the states that put Trump over the top in 2016 by more than Trump won them by in 2016. Some people seem to be trying to say that Arizona and Georgia saved Biden when that simply isn't true. Biden would have won without both of them. Just because they are the tipping point does not mean that they saved Biden.

The state that put Trump over the top in 2016 was Wisconsin he didn't need PA or MI. The current state that has put Biden over the top is Wisconsin which he is winning by about the same margin as Trump won in 2016.

Objectively speaking by the tipping point state this election was more or less as close as 2016.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

You're moving the goal posts. All Biden needed was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he flipped them.. Regardless of how you play with the math, Biden clearly won this election by more than Trump did in 2016.

That's not how it works...

Are you familiar with the concept of a tipping point?

Let me put it like this. Biden won the states that put Trump over the top in 2016 by more than Trump won them by in 2016. Some people seem to be trying to say that Arizona and Georgia saved Biden when that simply isn't true. Biden would have won without both of them. Just because they are the tipping point does not mean that they saved Biden.

Yeah, but if Biden wins MI and PA but loses WI, AZ, and GA, he loses.  So MI and PA are not relevant to this discussion.

[Malarkey Decider]

~6300 more ballots out of PA, Biden wins them 4135-2157, 66%-34%

His lead has officially crossed 1.00%+

Joe Biden 3,423,580 (49.93%)
Donald Trump 3,354,905 (48.92%)
Jo Jorgensen 78,756 (1.15%)

Biden lead: +68,675

SCRANTON JOE

[emailking]

Let me put it like this. Biden won the states that put Trump over the top in 2016 by more than Trump won them by in 2016.

Trump in 2016 won the states that put Biden over the top (GA/AZ/WI) by more than Biden won the states that put Trump over the top in 2016. This is not a metric that helps your argument.

Some people seem to be trying to say that Arizona and Georgia saved Biden when that simply isn't true. Biden would have won without both of them. Just because they are the tipping point does not mean that they saved Biden.

We're saying AZ, Ga, and WI saved Biden. He wouldn't have won without all 3 of them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to the AP, Biden now has 51% of the popular vote.

[emailking]

Like just reverse the order of the two elections hypothetically. For 4 years we'd be talking about how the GOP need to take back GA and AZ and get a midwestern state and they win.

[Angel of Death]

This election was also closer than 4 years ago if you look at the margin the winner won the tipping point state, Wisconsin in both cases, both in relative and absolute numbers.

[emailking]

Or look at it this way. If Trump and Biden are the nominees 4 years from now, one way Trump could win is to grab back MI/PA/WI, but it's an easier lift (based on the results) to take back AZ/GA/WI.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Regarding the post you just deleted, DrScholl, no, I'm not trying to be argumentative for no reason at all.  I'm being argumentative because your argument makes no sense.

[Malarkey Decider]

Wow, Brian Carroll's message must have really resonated with the people of Douglas County.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1328152462331699202
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1328152466752491526

[Non Swing Voter]

Looking at the 3 closest states is arbitrary.  The tipping point state both times was Wisconsin and it was around the same margin both times. 

The electoral college obviously gives Republicans an advantage but it only goes so far.  Biden had a lot more electoral votes locked up so he could just focus on picking off a few Trump states.

I wouldn't feel all that comfortable if I were Republicans heading into 2024.  There aren't that many states that were very close that are also trending Republican generally.  Of the states that were within a point or less, arguably Wisconsin is trending Republican.  Pennsylvania is probably a wash.  Georgia and Arizona are both clearly trending Democratic. 

[emailking]

I think the 3 closest states is relevant (which is coincidentally the margin of victory in 2 consecutive elections) because if you shift the 20K votes in WI but leave AZ & GA alone Biden still wins even though they're not the tipping point states. But yes there are different ways of looking at it.

[NOVA Green]

Alaska snuck in an update Yesterday:

Total Cumulative Numbers:

Trump: 181,645     (53.0%)  n/c      +10.8% Trump
Biden:  144,498     (42.2%)  n/c
Misc:     12,902      ( 3.8%)  n/c
Total:    339,045

Latest Batch:

Trump:     + 2,581
Biden:      + 1,929




I checked the Anchorage numbers, and they do not appear to have moved since the 11/13/20 PM Update, and it looks like Biden is still currently up +1.5k Votes in Anchorage (+1.0% DEM).

Unfortunately I haven't been tracking in detail where the new batches are coming from, so cannot provide greater context yet in terms of Fairbanks, MatSU, Rural Native Alaska, Panhandle, etc....

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So CNN has the same error NYT has on Douglas county, CO.

[compucomp]

snip

If Twitter wanted to truly do something in the public interest, then they should block Trump's Twitter account now.

[Ferguson97]

Such a triggered snowflake. What a sore LOSER!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327978710809661440
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327979630477922304

LOL the Democratic Party is not competent enough to rig an entire election.

We must be especially incompetent to rig the presidential election but not give ourselves a Senate majority.

[Alben Barkley]

Such a triggered snowflake. What a sore LOSER!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327978710809661440
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327979630477922304

LOL the Democratic Party is not competent enough to rig an entire election.

We must be especially incompetent to rig the presidential election but not give ourselves a Senate majority.

Also what happened in 2016? Wasn't Hillary some diabolical mastermind? Shouldn't that have made her unstoppable?

[jimrtex]

As a teacher, I love this. Other than Trump and Barr, I will be most happy to see her go.

They look more like teachers union bosses taking a cruise.

[Hammy]

Looking at the 3 closest states is arbitrary.  The tipping point state both times was Wisconsin and it was around the same margin both times.  

The electoral college obviously gives Republicans an advantage but it only goes so far.  Biden had a lot more electoral votes locked up so he could just focus on picking off a few Trump states.

The electoral college is literally the only thing that determines the election, so yes, looking at the closest states is actually the only objective way to determine how many votes decided the election.

If anything it shows how absurd our entire electoral system is.

[jimrtex]

Will the electoral college be able to meet in states with more than 10 electors and a Democratic governor (Washington, California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey)?

[emailking]

Will the electoral college be able to meet in states with more than 10 electors and a Democratic governor (Washington, California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey)?

Yes.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1328200072987893762?s=20

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1326345253360635904

What is Donald Trump’s legal strategy at this point?

Marc Elias besides being the bagman for the bogus Steele dossier, was the Democrat lawyer in NC-9 case where there was a new election because the election was "tainted by fraud" rather than anywhere enough votes to overturn the results.

[jimrtex]

Will the electoral college be able to meet in states with more than 10 electors and a Democratic governor (Washington, California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey)?

Yes.

Indoors. Haven't governors banned indoor gatherings of more than 10 people?